March Weather Disccusion: Severe Storms Possible Tues/Wed

[wxman57]

I do the same thing...plant my tomatoes with only the tops sticking out for deeper root growth. I do that will all my veggies actually. Your pops knew exactly what he was doing.

So how are we looking wxman? What are your thoughts of anymore freezes before the it starts to warm up real good.

No more freezes for us, almost certainly. Probably no more 30s, either. I do finally see that the GFS is predicting 80+ temps the 3rd week of March. Those 2 meter temps are generally 3-4 degrees below the actual high, so I think we're in for quite a few 80s for the rest of March. No sign of any cold front until around the 24th, and that one looks fairly weak.

[redneckweather]

That's what I figured wxman. I have a lot of old timers telling me just wait till April. They say we seem to always get a good freeze the first week of April before the warm weather sets in. This is a different year and with this weather pattern, I don't think so.

[srainhoutx]

It does appear that a cold spell is coming to our E. Will it translate a bit further W close to our backyard? Not sure. There are also some indications of a more southerly flow (a shift south of the storm track) off the Pacific in the days ahead (CA/Desert SW & Four Corners Region). Perhaps a bit of a shift in storm track will bring a change in the patter later next week.

[srainhoutx]

Dry weather looks to continue locally with a cool down to our E...

[sleetstorm]

Do any of the models show how icy that the temperature may become?

[wxman57]

Do any of the models show how icy that the temperature may become?

Icy? Here? Nothing colder than maybe the low to mid 50s over the next 10-14 days. Highs generally upper 70s to mid 80s. That's not so icy.

[Andrew]

Do any of the models show how icy that the temperature may become?

Icy? Here? Nothing colder than maybe the low to mid 50s over the next 10-14 days. Highs generally upper 70s to mid 80s. That's not so icy.

Ah I love these temps they are soo nice. Lets keep it coming.

[srainhoutx]

What a great early Spring weekend ahead. Warm temps look to continue until around Thursday of next week when we may see weak front. There are some hints via guidance that rain may well enter the picture around next Friday and just maybe continue into next weekend. Enjoy the weekend everyone!

[wxman57]

New runs overnight (GFS) delay the weak front until late next Sunday (vs. Thursday). Fine with me. Keep these 80s coming!

[srainhoutx]

It'd be, what, 4 days since a post on this forum anywhere if not for me. But fear not, Mr. Sunny Side of the Street, Silver Lining Man, the Guru of Glass Half Full, looking for that light at the end of the tunnel...


Maybe I'm trying to make chicken salad from something else, but offshore winds cause upwelling, plus tend to be cool and dry, further cooling the near shore waters. Looks like onshore flow all week, maybe later in April we won't be cursed with a low cloud layer stuck under the inversion in SE Texas, such that sufficient insolation will break the cap, and we can have pages of fun with severe weather.

Look, SSE winds (as of Monday morning) and the SST isn't colder than the dewpoint!


Granted, the somewhat unimpressive dewpoint is sort of a symptom of high pressure in the Gulf, but still, onshore winds and near full sunshine, maybe we'll be rewarded mid-April!

You do know we have a Hurricane Central Forum and there was activity there yesterday. It won't be much longer before things begin to pick up, activity wise, I suspect. After all a new update from CSU will be out on April 6th.

[tireman4]

Here is my post. Bring back March Climo. Please.

Code: Select all

March  Avg Hi/Low        Rec Hi.   Yr.   Rec. Low Max        Yr.   Rec. Low    Yr.      Rec. Hi. Low    Yr.
21        74/53            87     1907       48             1968    30          1996       70         1952   
22        75/53            89     1916       52             1989    32          1970       70         1904   
23        75/53            89     1929       54             2006    35          1989       70         1995   
24        75/53            87     1907       47             1974    32          1897       70         1995   
25        75/53            93     1928       48             1974    36          2006       70         1949   

[Ptarmigan]

Here is my post. Bring back March Climo. Please.

Code: Select all

March  Avg Hi/Low   Rec Hi.   Yr.   Rec. Low Max     Yr.    Rec. Low    Yr.   Rec. Hi. Low    Yr.
21        74/53            87     1907       48             1968    30          1996       70         1952   
22        75/53            89     1916       52             1989    32          1970       70         1904   
23        75/53            89     1929       54             2006    35          1989       70         1995   
24        75/53            87     1907       47             1974    32          1897       70         1995   
25        75/53            93     1928       48             1974    36          2006       70         1949   

I notice that even in La Nina springs, there can be cold blasts in March like in 1989 and 1996. February 1996 reached the 90s even!

[srainhoutx]

If the GFS is correct, we may see a nice cool front on Sunday/Monday. Fingers crossed that the Upper Air disturbance will be far enough S to increase our rain chances as well.

[wxman57]

You always hope for rain on a big bike ride day! Sunday is the Northwest Cycling Club's "Bluebonnet Metric Century". The wife & I have been trying to get out on our road bikes for 2 months now, ever since she had the bike shop do a complete upgrade to her custom-built Tesch (new wheels, bar-end shifters, new brakes, etc.). Every time we plan on attending an organized ride the weather sucks that day.

http://www.northwestcyclingclub.com/clu ... 1/bbx.html

[srainhoutx]

You always hope for rain on a big bike ride day! Sunday is the Northwest Cycling Club's "Bluebonnet Metric Century".

I'd hope for rain during the week, but so far there hasn't been even a hint of any rain in about 2 weeks. Those Bluebonnets need a drink as well as my yard.

[srainhoutx]

Maybe wxman57 will be safe regarding those Sunday rains after all...

[wxman57]

Interesting diurnal SST fluctuation at buoy 42035. One would not expect to see such diurnal temperature variations of SSTs. Perhaps the sensor is being influenced by the proximity of the buoy surface itself, acting as a heat source during the day?

[redneckweather]

wxman, you are just dieing to jump into some spandex aren't you?

Are we actually going to go through ANOTHER Spring season without some good storms? Man, I don't even remember the last time we had a good stormy Spring. Yack!

[sleetstorm]

Welcome to the second day of spring, everyone. Does anyone have a map of what the sea surface temperatures look like now, seeing as we have had pleasent and superb weather for over a month now?

[sleetstorm]

wxman, you are just dieing to jump into some spandex aren't you?

Are we actually going to go through ANOTHER Spring season without some good storms? Man, I don't even remember the last time we had a good stormy Spring. Yack!

Well, wxman57 did say that we would be paying for all of the hard freezes that south east received during the last month and a half because of how much the icy dry north winds and cold days and nights this past winter easily and nicely chilled most of the Gulf of Mexico. Is that correct, wxman57?