2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[Ptarmigan]

Since 2010 Hurricane Season is winding down. We have to wonder what 2011 Hurricane Season will be like. Joe Bastardi at AccuWeather thinks 2011 will be active. His analog seasons are 1996, 1999, and 2008. Here is what these seasons were like.

1996
14/10/6
% Hurricane=69.2%
% Major Hurricane=46.2%
ACE=166
ACE/Storm=12.8

Notable Storms
Fran
Hortense

1999
12/8/5
% Hurricane=66.7%
% Major Hurricane=41.7%
ACE=177
ACE/Storm=14.8

Floyd
TD11

2008
16/8/5
% Hurricane=50%
% Major Hurricane=31.3%
ACE=144
ACE/Storm=9

Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike

Average Prediction Based On Analog For 2011
14/9/5
ACE=162
% Hurricane=62%
% Major Hurricane=39.7%
ACE/Storm=12.2

2011 looks to be an above average season.

Average 1870-2010
9/5/2
ACE=91
% Hurricane=58.9%
% Major Hurricane=21.5%
ACE/Storm=9.8


1996, 1999, and 2008 were very active and devastating years.

I wonder about the Atlantic water by 2011. Could it be warmer than 2010? La Nina is expected to stay to Summer of 2011.

[Ptarmigan]

Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray are predicting an active 2011 Hurricane Season, 17/9/5. The analogs for 2011 are 1956, 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008. 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008 were bad for Texas, especially for Upper Texas Coast.

1961-Carla
1989-Allison, Chantal, and Jerry
1999-Bret
2008-Ike

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2010.pdf

[Andrew]

Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray are predicting an active 2011 Hurricane Season, 17/9/5. The analogs for 2011 are 1956, 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008. 1961, 1989, 1999 and 2008 were bad for Texas, especially for Upper Texas Coast.

1961-Carla
1989-Allison, Chantal, and Jerry
1999-Bret
2008-Ike

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2010.pdf

Yea with La Nina expected to decrease, it should be interesting for us here in the Western Gulf.

[Ptarmigan]

I will take a jab at 2011 Season, 16/9/6.

[Paul]

Whoa PT...6 majors? ouch.....I will go 5....preliminary numbers 17/8/5

[Ptarmigan]

Whoa PT...6 majors? ouch.....I will go 5....preliminary numbers 17/8/5

1995 had 5 major hurricanes, while 1996 had 6 major hurricanes. My reasoning for that.

[sambucol]

18/7/8 prelim guess

[Ptarmigan]

The ECMWF is predicting that the pressure will be lower than normal come hurricane season, especially over America and MDR. That may not bode well for us.

[Cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to follow the next few months forecasts to see if they continue to have lower pressures. Agree that if those forecasts come to reallity,then the Caribbean may recieve some not welcomed visitors.

[wxman57]

That was the February 2010 forecast up above, Ptarmigin. Here's the February 2011 forecast. It has changed significantly from the January outlook for MJJ in that it's now forecasting normal pressures in the Subtropical and Tropical Atlantic and lower pressures over the U.S. That could mean a stronger Bermuda High and less storms recurving east of the U.S. Here's the current JJA forecast:

[Ptarmigan]

That was the February 2010 forecast up above, Ptarmigin. Here's the February 2011 forecast. It has changed significantly from the January outlook for MJJ in that it's now forecasting normal pressures in the Subtropical and Tropical Atlantic and lower pressures over the U.S. That could mean a stronger Bermuda High and less storms recurving east of the U.S. Here's the current JJA forecast:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Sorry. My bad. D'OH! (Homer's voice)

[srainhoutx]

As we begin to transition toward tropical season, one has to wonder if a stronger Bermuda Ridge in ahead. If we see a neutral/positive NAO ( SE Ridge ), the door could open for some early season activity in our part of the Basin. Early indications suggest a weakening La Nina meaning another active year. Unlike last year, we may need to keep an eye closer to home, IMO.

[Andrew]

The Gulf is beginning to heat up:

[desiredwxgd]

After a long winter’s hibernation I return to what looks to be yet another “exciting” season.

[Paul]

yes it is Andrew and we are just in March.....quite the rebound.....you know we are getting close when you see the LC already supporting a cat 5......lol


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[srainhoutx]

Report issued today by the CPC suggests neutral La Nina conditions for May/June/July. Interesting that they also suggest a possible return to El Nino conditions for the late summer/fall timeframe. Perhaps an early start and an early ending of Tropical Season? We will see...

•Nearly all models indicate that La Niña will weaken in the coming months.
•A majority of models and all three multi-model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011 (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5C and +0.5C ).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[wxman57]

Quite a change over the past few weeks. Nearing El Nino by October now. Not the current rate of warming that's forecast to slow down immediately. Will it? Or will the season be shut down in October by an oncoming El Nino? It takes 3 months of SSTs over +0.5C to make an El Nino, so likely no El Nino this season. But a spike of warmth late in the season might shut down activity in October.

February 13th:


Current:

[Ptarmigan]

The vast majority of seasons, barelycane Jerry and the 1949 Freeport storms as exceptions, its all over by the Autumnal Equinox anyway.


I'm not anti-hurricane by any means, I wouldn't mind a Carla experience, as long as it comes at the right time. I know people with property in Galveston. I enjoy visiting.

Giving Cat 2 Ike credit for being a major, even though it wasn't, 1983 to 2008, I'll be prepared for a big one in HGX around 2030. Kids will be grown. Probably surf the internet and watch TV all day until the power goes out. Maybe upload whatever the 2030 version of U-Tube video is. Maybe I'll spend thousands for a generator and an electrician for something that gets used more than an hour at a time once a decade by then so I can keep surfing.

For all intents and purposes, I consider Ike a major because of the damage it wrought on.

[wxman57]

The term "major hurricane" means that the hurricane had 111 mph sustained winds or greater, nothing else. One could argue that Ike was almost a major hurricane at landfall with 110 mph winds, but that 110 mph was probably an over-estimate as no such surface winds were measured. Ike's max sustained winds were probably closer to 100-105 mph. Therefore, Ike was definitely NOT a major hurricane as far as the exact definition of "major hurricane".

I would argue that the term "intense hurricane" is more appropriate to use for Saffir-Simpson category 3-4-5 hurricanes, as "intense" relates only to the max sustained wind and not to the extent of damage across the landfall region. Many intense hurricanes would prove to be major hurricanes in terms of the extent of damage, but so would less intense hurricanes like Ike or Gustav, or Isabel in NC/VA/MD. Even remnant low Allison of 2001 caused major damage.

Bottom line - don't confuse the "major" in "major hurricane" with implied or observed damage, as it's just an indication of the hurricane's max sustained winds. And these max winds may cover only a few square miles in tiny hurricanes.

[srainhoutx]

The young Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray of CSU fame are scheduled to release another Tropical Season Update for 2011 on April 6th. It will be interesting to see if the December numbers they predicted hold as well as those ominous analog years that raised an eyebrow.