Louisiana Severe Weather/Fat Tuesday/Ash Wednesday

[mwbwhorton]

While im well aware that this event will not effect metro Houston the possibilities of a dangerous severe weather event are
increasing here in Louisiana with most of the state 30% hatched for tommorrow haven't seen that in a while and not good as far as Fat Tuesday celebrations are concerned,anyways the possibilities of strong long track tornadoes and high wnds are increasing
statewide and i look for a mderate risk to be issued soon if trends continue...

[mwbwhorton]

most of Louisiana is now 10% hatched for tornadoes,15% for high wind and large hail looking like a long day for mets and broadcast media here.....

[srainhoutx]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AFTER DARK
WARRANTS HEIGHTENED SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

TORNADOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND
OBSCURED BY RAIN AND DARKNESS.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS
TONIGHT.

..HART.. 03/08/2011

[srainhoutx]

Moderate Risk looks to be ahead...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 081552Z - 081645Z

MUCH OF LA INTO SRN MS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN THE
UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES
ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE
MORNING UPDATE OF THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 03/08/2011


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SRN AR...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081854Z - 081930Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN LA INTO SWRN
MS...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP PER THE SPECIAL 18Z LCH
SOUNDING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA/SRN AR INTO CENTRAL MS FOR PRIMARILY A HAIL
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR INTO
CENTRAL AND SWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP
OVER SRN LA. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED TSTMS WITH
MUCH OF THIS EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SRN LA ARE LOCATED INVOF THE NWD MOVING WARM
FRONT...AND ARE LIKELY SURFACE BASED OR NEARLY SO.

LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED THE WARM FRONT
HAD MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF LA AND
EXTENDED NWWD THROUGH E TX TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TX. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WERE
LOCATED AS FAR INLAND AS LCH-LFT AND WWD INTO SE TX...WHILE MID 60S
VALUES EXTENDED FROM POE TO BTR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
TSTMS LOCATED E/SE OF LFT AND W OF BTR...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF GREATER CLOUD COVER WHERE SURFACE
HEATING IS STRONGER...AIDING IN BOOSTING INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
1000-1500 J PER KG/. THERMODYNAMICS AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THREATS FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORM FORMING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO...GIVEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE PER 18Z LCH VAD.

FARTHER N...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LA AND ACROSS AR INTO SWRN TO
CENTRAL MS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
DISTANCE FROM WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS /STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ AND INCREASING
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS SPREAD EWD WITH
APPROACHING SRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...SOME SEVERE...WITH THE STRONGER/
LONG-LIVED CELLS.

..PETERS.. 03/08/2011


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 42
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 10 MILES EAST OF PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND LWR MS
VALLEY WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG JET APPROACH THE REGION. SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TORNADO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.

...HALES

[mwbwhorton]

Big time supercells ongoing ne of dfw,also development occuring in sw Louisiana as strongest lifting is arriving there tornado watch only a matter of time now for ne louisiana......