Hurricane center to experiment with 7-day forecasts

[unome]

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-h ... forecasts/

"...no major changes in the way the hurricane center does business this year. However, some things are going on behind the scenes. For instance, forecasters will experiment with six- and seven-day advance forecasts, he said.

The long-range forecasts won’t be made public because , “we’re not there operationally yet,” he said. Put another way: they wouldn’t be accurate enough to be useful. Currently, the hurricane center provides forecasts out to five days."

[wxman57]

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-h ... forecasts/

"...no major changes in the way the hurricane center does business this year. However, some things are going on behind the scenes. For instance, forecasters will experiment with six- and seven-day advance forecasts, he said.

The long-range forecasts won’t be made public because , “we’re not there operationally yet,” he said. Put another way: they wouldn’t be accurate enough to be useful. Currently, the hurricane center provides forecasts out to five days."

Saw that at the National Hurricane Conference last year (7-day forecasts). We've been doing them internal for the last few years, in preparation to go operational with 7-day forecasts for our clients next year. I figure that the cone size (average 7-day error over the past 5 yrs) at day 7 will be close to 1000 miles across, or covering the entire Gulf of Mexico.

[unome]

yeah, I imagine they will be most useful, in the Atlantic basin anyway, to judge whether they expect something to curve out into the Atlantic on the east coast. I'll be interested to see how they change the storm surge graphics, as they also stated in the article

[unome]

that's a pretty good improvement since 2003, check it out

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

[wxman57]

that's a pretty good improvement since 2003, check it out

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

The 2011 cone size will shrink by about 15-18% in the day 4 and 5 time frame. That's nearly 100 miles at day 5. As forecasts continue to improve, the error cone will continue to shrink.