February Ends Warm and Dry

[gocuse22]

New thread Snow next week???

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and Canadian (GEM) agree on more Arctic air next week. Regarding any precip, that remains to be seen.

[sambucol]

David Paul has the precip in Wednesday's forecast and has mentioned several times today that we may have sleet Wednesday. That's bold this far away and after a snow forecast with a no show snow. Because of his boldness, my guess is sleet next week is almost a sure thing.

[ticka1]

Only 5 days lead time for this event!!! Channel 11 has this in their forecast and channel 2 not so much.

[sambucol]

5 days isn't that long especially when you compare it to the current one. We watched it for 10 days!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests we will not see much of a warmup with all that snow to our N before the next Arctic air mass dives S. That model also suggest a potent Upper Low and a surface low along Coastal TX...

02042011 12Z Euro f120.gif

02042011 12Z Euro f144.gif

02042011 12Z Euro f168.gif

[Ptarmigan]

From from Srain posted, if this was to materialize we could see another winter weather event.

[MRG93415]

Here we go again...LOL For what it is worth, I have heard that our winters are going to be getting worse as far as the coldness goes. Not sure what the science is behind all of it but I have heard it being said alot the last couple of years...

[sambucol]

Well, since David Paul mentioned sleet on his forecast today, does it look like we could get some snow from this next Arctic air this time?

[Andrew]

The 12Z Euro suggests we will not see much of a warmup with all that snow to our N before the next Arctic air mass dives S. That model also suggest a potent Upper Low and a surface low along Coastal TX...

Euro doesn't have as cold of temps and the UL is too late to provide much wintry percip but being so far out a lot can change.

[clute28]

Is anyone really ready to do this all over again..be it only 5 days away this time..I guess put on another pot of coffee and saddle up for a week of guessing

[sambucol]

Is anyone really ready to do this all over again..be it only 5 days away this time..I guess put on another pot of coffee and saddle up for a week of guessing

Heck, yeah!!!

[Andrew]

Is anyone really ready to do this all over again..be it only 5 days away this time..I guess put on another pot of coffee and saddle up for a week of guessing

I think we learned a lot from this last run and as a result we will be better prepared. But yes here we go again.

[ticka1]

From from Srain posted, if this was to materialize we could see another winter weather event.

what days we looking at per the model runs for the winter weather if it was to happen.

[don]

12z Euro shows a decent amount of precip over Houston half an inch (qpf) problem is that half of it falls with temps above freezing at all levels including the surface,but it does show 12z Thursday surface temps getting right around the freezing mark (0.1 C) with .16 qpf.Could get a bit icy again...

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS Ensembles 'hinting' at wintry weather chances yet again mid next week...

[clute28]

Well it sounds like were ready (and tired) but...lets go get it boys..and ladies

[srainhoutx]

Pacific Winter RECON Missions are tasked for next weeks event as well...

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1.NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS:
A. P28/ 35.0N 150.0W/ 06/1200Z
B. P76/ 37.ON 169.3E/ 06/1200Z.

NOUS42 KNHC 041815
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST FRI 04 FEBRUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z FEBRUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
A. P28/ 35.0N 150.0W/ 06/1200Z
B. AFXXX 16WSC TRACK28
C. 06/0515Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 06/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE TRACK;
A. P27/ 35.5N 156.0W/ 07/1200Z

[redneckweather]

I'm gonna have to watch this one closer than this last one since I will be traveling Wednesday afternoon all the way to the deep Hill Country (Leakey, TX).

[ronyan]

Wow, the sun is back! Thawing out nicely here with the temp finally getting above 32. 32.3 F currently.