February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[harpman]

I think you folks need a dose of AZ right about now.

[helloitsb]

Looks like the main event starting to unfold with light snow in Laredo and frz dr across S TX.

Looks like we may just be pushing the event back by about 6 hours. Think icing/snow will still happen and amounts of widespread 1-2" with isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

thanks for the update Jeff, I especially like

isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

when you say pushed back 6 hours, is that 6 hours from 9 or 6 hours from now? I know there were different estimated times of the start so just wanted to get that clear

Six hours from 4-6pm (so onset around 06Z or so

thank you sir and again thank you for keeping on top of everything for us slow ones

[jeff]

Jeff, what time are you thinking for the onset now, particularly Kingwood area?

midnight -200am lasting through about 900-1100am Friday

[indian1999]

will the beaumont/port arthur see any more winter precipitation tonight?

[Andrew]

a lot of us old timers have been thru this many times.....Hurricane season especially. I dont come out of hibernation unless I see a REAL winter weather event. Something will happen you guys just need to wait....jeeez...I got to take a xanax just so I can read some of these posts....

Rock

Yea at this point I have stopped posting and I am just watching to make sure it doesn't get out of control.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff, I noticed a nice vort max to our W at the base of the trough. Is that our 'trigger' for the overnight hours?

[noname_77065]

I just received this from a good friend of mine who is the chief meteorologist at the CBS affiliate in Austin. While it's not all relevant to HOU, it seems to go along with the thinking that this storm is delayed, not "cancelled."

Radar still doesn't indicate any snow in the area.

I'm thinking that the atmosphere is still a little too dry overhead to allow for snow at this point. However, the atmosphere
may be moistening up a bit with 6pm observations reporting snow in Laredo; at the same time, San Angelo
and Laughlin AFB Doppler weather radars indicates light snow becoming a little more widespread in the area
between Del Rio, San Angelo and Midland. This is just ahead of the eastward moving upper air low pressure area
over northeast Mexico and southwest Texas.

At this point, I'm not changing my forecast that much. I'm really not doubting the snow chances as much as I am
a little leery of the forecast accumulations at this point. Light snow is still forecast to begin in the Austin area
between 10 and midnight tonight and continue until the morning rush hour Friday morning. At this point, accumulations
will generally be from a dusting to 1" along and west of the IH35 corridor with heavier totals possible in the winter
storm warning areas of Lee, Bastrop, Caldwell and Fayette counties.

FYI... the NWS Austin-San Antonio has placed the KEWX doppler weather radar into "clear air mode"
which is highly sensitive and can detect developing snow best.

[jeff]

Jeff, I noticed a nice vort max to our W at the base of the trough. Is that our 'trigger' for the overnight hours?

The ascent from the upper trough is starting to cross the Rio Grande and this will spread eastward...and that along with isentropic ascent shoul ddo the trick

[Paul]

Is that moisture north of Corpus that is starting to overtake the dry air? Looks like the moisture forms a noticeable, large bump in the last couple of frames. Thoughts?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

nice catch....theres your lift and tap into GOM moisture....ULL doing what it was progged to do....

[jabcwb2]

If I may, when you guys post a prediction, would you please sign either Promet or amatuer or follower or something to distinguish between being educated in the anomalies of weather and not being educated? I have been a member of this forum for quite a while and am still having trouble following those who really know what we will get weatherwise vs those who are guessing.

Seems to me that might cut down on some of the confusion. Just an observation.
Follower

[redneckweather]

In a matter of minutes I changed my way of thinking. Someone pass the Xanax...I will take a double dose please.

[skidog38]

man, this might be a bigger snow event than forecasted

[helloitsb]

do I have the right to start getting excited yet or shall I wait until about 10? :

[Frigid Aggie]

Is that moisture north of Corpus that is starting to overtake the dry air? Looks like the moisture forms a noticeable, large bump in the last couple of frames. Thoughts?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

nice catch....theres your lift and tap into GOM moisture....ULL doing what it was progged to do....

It was even more pronounced when I refreshed the image. It really built up a nice, thick, white ledge right up against the dry air that looks like a big lump.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff, I noticed a nice vort max to our W at the base of the trough. Is that our 'trigger' for the overnight hours?

The ascent from the upper trough is starting to cross the Rio Grande and this will spread eastward...and that along with isentropic ascent shoul ddo the trick

So guidance did a fairly good job suggesting jet stream activty for the daylight hours near the Coast and points N and E and now we wait to see what the overnight hours offers. Am I correct?

[svrwx0503]

It seems like there is a lot of people who are pretty nervous about the current moisture values being too low. PW's are already above where they were during the 2004 event, so I believe the moisture is there; it is the upper level dynamics that are still lacking a bit to really supply the needed lift to produce precip. The upper low is currently still back across west-northwest Texas with the main energy just now starting to move out of northern Mexico. As the low ejects off to the northeast later tonight and the region falls under the RRQ of a strong upper level jet with increasing isentropic lift in the lower levels...that should supply plenty of lift to produce widespread snow/sleet across a good portion of the region. Accumulations might not be quite as high as was originally forecast, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet since the event hasn't even really begun and it will be the mesoscale features which will dominate the heaviest totals. Current thinking is that we should really start to get a much better idea of how things will evolve come 9-10pm.

[Baseballdude2915]

Our board is bi-polar

Signs are good. Lets be patient now.

[clute28]

Well if anything I got mu share of winter weather..the whole 40seconds of sleet that fell so I'm good if nothing else falls here..I got my quote. For the winter

[jabcwb2]

Our board is bi-polar

Signs are good. Lets be patient now.

That's funny!

[ripsaw]

OK...this a heckuva first time post from a lurker prior to Ike. I had fun today on a conference call with colleagues from Chicago and Canada explaining why schools would be closed tomorrow before even the first flake fell! Thanks to all for your perspectives...I continue to learn a lot. Hoping AZ has a trick up his sleeve