February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[snowman65]

G. Bostwick says the fat lady is warming up...so that pretty much puts the wraps on this one for me.....maybe next weeks system will produce a little something.

[Baseballdude2915]

Seeing a couple blips in central Texas out in front of the low.
Certainly a good sign this early in the night.

Building down the coast too.

Time may give birth to this 'non-event.'

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

AVIATION...
THOUGH RECENT HOUSTON AREA MID-DAY ACARS SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR -SN DEVELOPMENT...STILL AWAITING THE ONSET
FOR NORTHERN SNOW WITH A SOUTHERN SLEET/SNOW MIX. KCRP REPORTING
-FZDZ AT LATEST OB...WITH A QUIET RADAR OVER OUR AREA. STILL
BITING ON WHAT THE PROGS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ALL ALONG...LATE
EVENING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD AND A SLEET/SNOW
MIX HOBBY SOUTHWARD. THE 04Z-14Z TIME PERIOD IS WHEN ALL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW....POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF
FZRA/SLEET/FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THEN AN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TRANSITION TO -SHSN. MVFR DECKS/VISBIES WITHIN -SHSN...IFR
ON ISLAND. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL SCOUR SKIES OUT TO SCT-FEW VFR...MAINTAIN NEAR-10 KT
NORTHWESTERLIES...BY END OF PERIOD.

[jasons2k]

I saw a WV loop just now on KPRC and at the very end of the loop, in the middle of the dry slot, it started to show color again and expanding in a pool in WC Texas towards San Angelo. If that's the case, Central and into NC Texas may get a decent snowfall.... maybe it will move far enough south to clip us too.

[CAK]

I don't know guys, whatever moisture/precip off the coast seems to be drying up...

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... g_off=9999

[tgal]

I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?

Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode

[perk]

I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?

Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode

Very well said, maybe you should post more often.

[redneckweather]

In less than 2 hours (4:23 to 6:15) Jeff had to make a fairly dramatic change on snow accumulations.

The 4:23 update said:


Still holding with my accumulation totals of 1-3” across the area with some totals of 3-5” in the heavy meso bands which are still likely.


Now less than tw hours later:


Still think it will snow, but accumulations may need to be adjusted downward into the 1-2 inches range across the area.


And then he added at the end of this update:

Still think this event will happen in some fashion, but I am getting a little nervous.


Do y'all see the trend here? It's going on 7 pm shortly and hardly any moisture in sight.

I won't mean to be such a weenie but this is southeast Texas afterall.

[radiogirltx]

I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?

Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode

(Applaudes from the bleachers) Well said.

[michmich]

I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?

Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode

Agreed!! Well said.

[jeff]

Looks like the main event starting to unfold with light snow in Laredo and frz dr across S TX.

Looks like we may just be pushing the event back by about 6 hours. Think icing/snow will still happen and amounts of widespread 1-2" with isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

[jeff]

I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?

Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode

(Applaudes from the bleachers) Well said.

Anything in Port Lavaca...are the cloud decks lowering?

[ticka1]

Looks like the main event starting to unfold with light snow in Laredo and frz dr across S TX.

Looks like we may just be pushing the event back by about 6 hours. Think icing/snow will still happen and amounts of widespread 1-2" with isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

any thoughts on chambers county?

[helloitsb]

I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?

Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode

I may have to follow you on that one, I've been a member since the start of Fall but these pessimistic attitudes are driving me nuts

The way the NWS is still talking and all the local mets are saying we should see some event in some fashion I'm not giving up, I talked to Tim Heller on Twitter and he feels fairly confident but if there is no moisture on the radar by 10 he may have to change his forecast is what he told me

[jgreak]

Jeff, what time are you thinking for the onset now, particularly Kingwood area?

[helloitsb]

Looks like the main event starting to unfold with light snow in Laredo and frz dr across S TX.

Looks like we may just be pushing the event back by about 6 hours. Think icing/snow will still happen and amounts of widespread 1-2" with isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

thanks for the update Jeff, I especially like

isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

when you say pushed back 6 hours, is that 6 hours from 9 or 6 hours from now? I know there were different estimated times of the start so just wanted to get that clear

[Paul]

a lot of us old timers have been thru this many times.....Hurricane season especially. I dont come out of hibernation unless I see a REAL winter weather event. Something will happen you guys just need to wait....jeeez...I got to take a xanax just so I can read some of these posts....

Rock

[Frigid Aggie]

Is that moisture north of Corpus that is starting to overtake the dry air? Looks like the moisture forms a noticeable, large bump in the last couple of frames. Thoughts?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[radiogirltx]

I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?

Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode

(Applaudes from the bleachers) Well said.

Anything in Port Lavaca...are the cloud decks lowering?

Yes. I started to notice that around 545. Lower, starting to thicken, and turning a bit darker grey...instead of the bright grey its been all day.

[jeff]

Looks like the main event starting to unfold with light snow in Laredo and frz dr across S TX.

Looks like we may just be pushing the event back by about 6 hours. Think icing/snow will still happen and amounts of widespread 1-2" with isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

thanks for the update Jeff, I especially like

isolated 3-4 inches especially over Austin, Waller, Montgomery and NW Harris

when you say pushed back 6 hours, is that 6 hours from 9 or 6 hours from now? I know there were different estimated times of the start so just wanted to get that clear

Six hours from 4-6pm (so onset around 06Z or so