February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Baseballdude2915]

While this is not looking good, we should not give up hope.

Tim Heller just brought up a good point regarding a bust, if the radar isn't lighting up between 6-10pm, then the numbers will need to be severely adjusted. I would only think flurries then. So radar watching is what we need to do.

Remember, Jeff is sticking to his guns and several members here strongly believe in at least an 1'' or slightly higher.
Seeing Wxman57 switch course concerns me, but these situations are tricky, even for him.

[rnmm]

Well even though it is not going to snow, my kids and I are still going to enjoy our day off tomorrow with movies, popcorn, hot chocolate, and soup oh and of course a NAP!!

[snowman65]

300 pages worth of disappointment...unbelievable.

[ticka1]

***UPDATE***

It is not going to snow. Please go about your daily business as usual tomorrow. Thanks. (serious sarcasm). Isn't that what you all wanted to hear?

Yeah right and now we will see a blizzard tonight.

[michmich]

***UPDATE***

It is not going to snow. Please go about your daily business as usual tomorrow. Thanks. (serious sarcasm). Isn't that what you all wanted to hear?

No!!! LOL.

[snowman65]

Well even though it is not going to snow, my kids and I are still going to enjoy our day off tomorrow with movies, popcorn, hot chocolate, and soup oh and of course a NAP!!

yes....same here...i see an all night movie marathon..netflix style!!!

[weatherag]

There are no soundings between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles, only model estimates of soundings. That's what makes it so difficult here. All the models appear to have a different idea what's happening aloft CURRENTLY, so how can they predict what will happen very well?

I've never understood why HGX doesn't have an upper air station. Would make things so much more easier. At any rate, if we don't see radar lighting up by 10 or so, then my optimism meter will go way down.

[tireman4]

Stargate SG1, Bones and Soup here!!!!

[snowman65]

CC.. you vewy funny...you numba 1

[TexasMetBlake]

My source at HGX says verbatim:

First, my question: "Dude, where's the moisture? Have you seen the WV? I'm a bit worried."

My friend: "It will saturate up by midnight. The WV doesn't mean anything for an isentropic lift event because it's all generated in the low levels. We went 1-3 inches the whole time because there is nothing to support big totals. We did lower them to 1-2 inches but still think the whole area will see snow."

[tireman4]

Well, the HGX NWS is sticking to their guns....that is a positive...

[snowman65]

My source at HGX says verbatim:

First, my question: "Dude, where's the moisture? Have you seen the WV? I'm a bit worried."

My friend: "It will saturate up by midnight. The WV doesn't mean anything for an isentropic lift event because it's all generated in the low levels. We went 1-3 inches the whole time because there is nothing to support big totals. We did lower them to 1-2 inches but still think the whole area will see snow."

see.I knew it all along....yall quit worrying so much...thanks CC..

[tireman4]

My source at HGX says verbatim:

First, my question: "Dude, where's the moisture? Have you seen the WV? I'm a bit worried."

My friend: "It will saturate up by midnight. The WV doesn't mean anything for an isentropic lift event because it's all generated in the low levels. We went 1-3 inches the whole time because there is nothing to support big totals. We did lower them to 1-2 inches but still think the whole area will see snow."

Well there ya go . I am convinced. Let us get back to having fun on a Thursday. Woo Hoo

[clute28]

PLAIN AND SIMPLE ..if u want snow u gotta go north LOL

[biggerbyte]

I would like to thank Wxman57 for helping me keep it real these past few days. Through some hype, a whole lot of hoping and wishing for a miracle, we come to this point at the beginning of the end of this event. We might see some very light precip. for inland areas, but I don't see how it can be much with the lack of enough moisture, low pressure, or not. That is like firing a gun with no bullets.

So, to wrap it up. Some along the coast, and over towards LA had some excitement. We got to see some cold daytime highs. The lows were challenging for some, but many did not reach the forecasted teens.
So, all in all, it was fun and exciting to watch. The potential, at times, was there for us to have a major winter event. We don't get even the potential for such an event very often.

I hope at least some of you listened to the cautions and warnings about potential huge disappointments. Everyone can be disappointed, but expecting anything might lesson the grieving time. Time to move on, folks. We can continue to hope that something happens to change how things look this evening. I know you newbies want this soooo bad. So do most of the rest of us. I do think my snowman is going to have to wait...



BB

[WeatherGAGA]

There is all these computers and machines and educated weather people. Half say it will snow half say it wont.

[Baseballdude2915]

2004 remember that?
History tends to repeat it self.
Watch the radar blossom tonight between 8-10pm

or

Another bone chilling bust.
Maybe a passing flurry.
No significant accumulations.

So hard to pick a side.

[snowman65]

There is all these computers and machines and educated weather people. Half say it will snow half say it wont.

so go with the one in between them...

[texasrattler]

Well even though it is not going to snow, my kids and I are still going to enjoy our day off tomorrow with movies, popcorn, hot chocolate, and soup oh and of course a NAP!!

I would consider being adopted, although my wife might object!

Unfortunately, my day will be a normal one: maintaining swimming pools dressed as an Eskimo.

[weatherag]

I think most people are in agreement that it will snow. Tricky part is exactly how much moisture will be available. Lift will certainly be there. As wxman pointed out would have been nice to see the surface trough form closer to the coast. We shall see. I'm still hopeful that my grass will be covered in the morning.