February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[jdman]

What is even more interesting is that HRRR time I was looking at was 12 hour. Look at 15 hour mark!!! Some folks in Montgomery, San Jac, Polk, Walker County are going to get blasted good if that is accurate!!! Putting down between 5 and 7 inches!!!

[CAK]

Forum record?

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[txsnowmaker]

I would caution against relying on the HRRR model. Late last night it showed lots of banding in SE Texas this morning that never came to fruition. Still very optimistic about snow accumulation for all of Houston proper. IMHO

[Baseballdude2915]

[quote="Ed Mahmoud"]This is a happier model. May be happier than the conditions justify, but it could score a historic coup...
(Model)






Dude, that would be insane. Ill be happy with half that much moisture.

[srainhoutx]

HGX holding ground...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE ICE PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS ALREADY UNFOLDING
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRING OVER GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. KHGX RADAR SHOWS SOME MODERATE RETURNS IN CHAMBERS
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE 29 TO 32 IN THIS AREA. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z NAM SHOW SOME WARMING NEAR THE 850 MB LAYER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CALL FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF A LINE FROM SARGENT TO DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 06Z. EXCEPT OVER GALVESTON AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF ICE COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL SHIFT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO A SARGENT
TO LEAGUE CITY TO LIBERTY LINE AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...EXPECTING
ALL SNOW WEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO SEALY TO HUNTSVILLE TO
CROCKETT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW EAST OF THAT LINE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL BACK OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION THIS AFTN. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST
TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH LIFT INCREASING AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE
CWA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST SATURATION (UP TO THE
-8 TO -10C LEVEL) FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE. THINKING SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OF 1/10 TO POSSIBLY 1/4 INCH.
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE 850 MB LAYER WHICH COULD HELP
RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS. EVEN IF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW...THE VERY COLD SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL MEAN
MAJOR PROBLEMS ON THE ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SOMETIMES THE SMALLER SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CAN TURN INTO A
GLAZE ON ROADWAYS AS THIS FORECASTER EXPERIENCED ONCE WHILE LIVING
IN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO THE ICY ROADS...WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE LIFT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIP. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ZONES BY MIDDAY
AND AREA WIDE BY LATE AFTN. ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS FRI AFTN. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT EARLY FRI EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SNOW/SLEET
COVER WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
END UP BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT. REFREEZING IS LIKELY
ON ROADWAYS WITH POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE FORMING ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S SATURDAY AFTN. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT THE DAYS 4-7 FORECAST THIS AFTN. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FROPA. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH WARMER FOR
WEDNESDAY...NOW THE WARMEST DAY...SO WINTRY PRECIP NO LONGER
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY COLDER BEHIND THIS
FRONT THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...SO A HARD FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Mr. T]

From the NWS discussion:

AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE

Now, everyone take a deep breath, have a nice dinner tonight, and come back to watch things unfold

[jdman]

I would caution against relying on the HRRR model. Late last night it showed lots of banding in SE Texas this morning that never came to fruition. Still very optimistic about snow accumulation for all of Houston proper. IMHO

Only difference I would point out is closeness to event. Of course, you can say that about all models. But, if in fact it did nail North Texas storm, it deserves some attention IMO. I will also point out that it doesn't start accumulations until after 8:00. So, it's not like the model is in "la la land" saying accumulations are about to begin.

[Katdaddy]

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[clute28]

Just curios...how acruate is the nws forcast for your area? Its showing no snow for clute and lake jackso then just jup the road n angleton 6 milles away they show sleet mixing with snow and 1 to 2 inches possible

[hlewis]

ok, i'll ask again. can someone give me an estimated guess as to percentage of chance we will see anything in Wharton County??

[Katdaddy]

AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE

Now, everyone take a deep breath, have a nice dinner tonight, and come back to watch things unfold

Glad you made this point Mr. T

[txflagwaver]

Dear fellow posters...

No need to compete with the predictions...or snipe each other with nasty comments...or upset the kids telling them it will or will not snow. It's weather...it's not an exact science...it will snow in our general area. It may snow in your particular area, it may not. You may get 1/2 "...you may get 7". SO...

It MIGHT snow on your house...

If you like snow I hope you enjoy it...

If you don't I hope it melts quickly...

All-Please be careful driving on icy roads.

[srainhoutx]

Dear fellow posters...

No need to compete with the predictions...or snipe each other with nasty comments...or upset the kids telling them it will or will not snow. It's weather...it's not an exact science...it will snow in our general area. It may snow in your particular area, it may not. You may get 1/2 inch...you may get 7". SO...

It MIGHT snow on your house...

If you like snow I hope you enjoy it...

If you don't I hope it melts quickly...

All-Please be careful driving on icy roads.

Thank you txflagwaver!

[Katdaddy]

Dear fellow posters...

No need to compete with the predictions...or snipe each other with nasty comments...or upset the kids telling them it will or will not snow. It's weather...it's not an exact science...it will snow in our general area. It may snow in your particular area, it may not. You may get 1/2 "...you may get 7". SO...

It MIGHT snow on your house...

If you like snow I hope you enjoy it...

If you don't I hope it melts quickly...

All-Please be careful driving on icy roads.

Another good point txflagwave.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...MODELS PUT THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE NORTH...BUT REALLY GIVES US THE BEST LIFT
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WESTERN AREAS AND AROUND 06Z FOR THE EASTERN
AREAS...KEEPING ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR A SHORT TIME.
HAVE MODIFIED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST JUST A BIT...BUT OVERALL
AM USING THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECASTS BASICALLY FOR GUIDANCE...
WHICH MEANS A CHANCE FOR SNOW OUT WEST...SNOW/SLEET LIKELY EASTERN
AREAS...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. THE LATTER IS PROBABLY THE BEST NEWS...SINCE THE LONGER THIS
TAKES TO HAPPEN THE MORE LIKELY IT WILL BE FROZEN WHICH WILL BE A
LOWER HAZARD THAN ACCUMULATING ICE. STILL...EXPECTING WINTRY
PRECIP TO OCCUR OUT WEST TONIGHT SPREADING EAST AND NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL TRIM
QPF AMOUNTS FORECASTED...AS MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL (AND HPC
GUIDANCE) IS LOWER THAN THE GFS. MOST AREAS HAVE NOT GOTTEN ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY...AND FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD TIL ABOUT 11/12 PM
FRIDAY BEFORE ALL BECOME ABOVE 32F.

[Baseballdude2915]

I was originally wanting 4 inches, but I'll be as pleased as a 8 year old girl getting a pony for Christmas with 2 inches.

If we get 4" or more, I'll do snow angels in my boxers, get my wife to upload the pix to the computer (she has all the technology skills) and upload it here and on the big forum.

I think we can do without! LOL

[redneckweather]

I just got home and am fixing to head out to get a fire going. I was hoping for some flurries while sitting around the fire this evening but dang, the radar is completely dead! Maybe I will throw a cup of ice in the air since that will probably be the only wintry type precip I will see.

[DMWTex]

I was originally wanting 4 inches, but I'll be as pleased as a 8 year old girl getting a pony for Christmas with 2 inches.

If we get 4" or more, I'll do snow angels in my boxers, get my wife to upload the pix to the computer (she has all the technology skills) and upload it here and on the big forum.

I think we can do without! LOL

To Hell with that I gotta see this

[unome]

ok, i'll ask again. can someone give me an estimated guess as to percentage of chance we will see anything in Wharton County??

here is NWS' estimated guess for Wharton

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... =graphical

here is NWS' zone foreccast for Wharton County

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=TXZ226

they are both available to you here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

[lyndie32]

I just got home and am fixing to head out to get a fire going. I was hoping for some flurries while sitting around the fire this evening but dang, the radar is completely dead! Maybe I will throw a cup of ice in the air since that will probably be the only wintry type precip I will see.

roflmao!