February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[ticka1]

ULL as best as I can tell is right around MX/TX border north of Laredo.....

And it is moving EAST!!

Is that good or bad?

[wxman57]

ULL as best as I can tell is right around MX/TX border north of Laredo.....

And it is moving EAST!!

Is that good or bad?

It's actually moving east as the models predicted. The implication is that the closer the low center comes to SE TX, the greater the chance for heavier precip tonight. I'd sure like to see more precip on radar to our southwest to be confident in any amounts of 1" or higher. Still early though.

[Paul]

ULL as best as I can tell is right around MX/TX border north of Laredo.....

And it is moving EAST!!

more S than East right now.....it will eventually eject east then NE... just not there yet...

[redneckweather]

I'm not liking the trends but it is what it is. I got up to 29.8 degrees at the house but that has come to a hault and is slowly starting to back pedal. I'm currently sitting at 28.2.

Ok, I'm gonna head on home, get a good hot oak campfire going outside, cook some deer sausage over some hot coals and wait for a flurry.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/03/11 1943Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1932Z VOGT
.
LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP STARTING TO IMPACT THE GULF STATES
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN
UL VORT/IMPULSE LOCATED NEAR 26N/107W WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS
STRETCHING FROM SW TX UP THROUGH KS AND EAST THROUGH PA/NJ. THERE ARE
SEVERAL SUBTLE S/WV IMPULSES WORKING THEIR WAY ALONG THE UL JET WHICH
RESIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROF AXIS... ATTM THERE IS A 140 KT
JET MAX RUNNING FROM AR NE TOWARDS NJ. BLENDED TPW INDICATES THAT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS
TRENDING NORTH WITH GOOD MID-TO-UL WINDS DIRECTED TO THE NORTH. PWATS
OVER LAND DIFFER FROM 0.9" JUST ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE NORTH TO 0.5"
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LA/MS/AL/GA.
.
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WINTRY PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO OVERCOME
THE FAIRLY DRY AIR AT THE SFC WITH REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER SE LA/S AND C MS WITH RAIN FURTHER TO THE EAST IN GA. BECAUSE SFC
TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 0C, EXPECT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO INCREASE
FROM SE TO NW AS THE MAIN UL VORT SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
AS BETTER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NORTH. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
MOSTLY OVER SE COASTLINE OF TX AS WELL. THE 850 0C LINE CURRENTLY RUNS
MOSTLY SW-TO=NE ACROSS C LA/C MS/NW AL.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START INCREASING
FROM SE TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN UL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND HELPS INCREASE UVV'S/MOISTURE INCREASES... ALSO SHOULD EXPECT MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SE COASTLINE OF TX FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

[clute28]

Starting to sleet again in clute

[weatherguy425]

guh! I just want this radar to start filling in!

[djmike]

TWC just said that the precip over SETX is starting to move away from the coast and out of the area.....is that it? Is our little winter wonderland over with? I know everyone keeps saying tonight, but how can it if the precip is moving away?

[hlewis]

are we still going to see anything in wharton county??????????

[jdman]

if HRRR is right, 19z shows somebody north of Houston getting 4 to 5 inches if I am reading it right. Talk is the model did pretty well with North Texas storm this week.

[wxman57]

TWC just said that the precip over SETX is starting to move away from the coast and out of the area.....is that it? Is our little winter wonderland over with? I know everyone keeps saying tonight, but how can it if the precip is moving away?

Main event WILL be tonight. Weak low is forming off the lower coast now. That low will precede the passage of the upper-level low by tomorrow morning, spreading precip across our area. However, as I feared, the surface low will be a ways offshore, limiting moisture inland. General snow amounts across Houston from a trace to 2", I'd say, but 2" may not be very widespread. Most precip will fall after 6pm and prior to 8am tomorrow.

[wxman57]

if HRRR is right, 19z shows somebody north of Houston getting 4 to 5 inches if I am reading it right. Talk is the model did pretty well with North Texas storm this week.

Have a link?

[ronyan]

TWC just said that the precip over SETX is starting to move away from the coast and out of the area.....is that it? Is our little winter wonderland over with? I know everyone keeps saying tonight, but how can it if the precip is moving away?

From what I've seen TWC always seems to have a bias against wintry precip in SE TX. I believe they were forecasting rain for us on Dec 24, 2004.

[srainhoutx]

if HRRR is right, 19z shows somebody north of Houston getting 4 to 5 inches if I am reading it right. Talk is the model did pretty well with North Texas storm this week.

Have a link?

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

[updraft]

TWC just said that the precip over SETX is starting to move away from the coast and out of the area.....is that it? Is our little winter wonderland over with? I know everyone keeps saying tonight, but how can it if the precip is moving away?

While what TWC said may be true, I don't think the "main event" is scheduled to start until midnight. Following the Pro Met's here, they all indicate that what we experience this afternoon/evening is a precursor to the main energy of moisture flowing in from the gulf.

[Katdaddy]

Snow in Harlingen

Brownsville AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
128 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP HAS
DECREASED WITH MAIN EFFECTS BEING ICING ON BRIDGES. SOME SNOW STILL
BEING REPORTED IN HARLINGEN...WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP INCREASES AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AS UPPER DYNAMICS FROM FAVORABLE JET STREAK LOCATION AND
INCREASED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINE. MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL BE ROUGHLY EAST OF US 281...ESPECIALLY AROUND BKS. FINAL PRECIP
TYPE AMOUNTS SHOULD BREAK DOWN IN BANDS AS FOLLOWS. AREAS WEST OF
US 281 WILL BE ALL SNOW...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
DUE TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. FROM US 281 TO US
77...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET WITH INCREASE OF MID LEVEL
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING. ACCUMULATION OF 1/10 TO 2/10 INCH POSSIBLE ON
EXPOSED AREAS. FROM US 77 EAST TO THE COAST...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. EQUIVALENT LIQUID PRECIPITATION
COULD REACH 1/4 INCH FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO SIGNIFICANT ICING
COULD OCCUR IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES.

[clute28]

TWC just said that the precip over SETX is starting to move away from the coast and out of the area.....is that it? Is our little winter wonderland over with? I know everyone keeps saying tonight, but how can it if the precip is moving away?

Main event WILL be tonight. Weak low is forming off the lower coast now. That low will precede the passage of the upper-level low by tomorrow morning, spreading precip across our area. However, as I feared, the surface low will be a ways offshore, limiting moisture inland. General snow amounts across Houston from a trace to 2", I'd say, but 2" may not be very widespread. Most precip will fall after 6pm and prior to 8am tomorrow.

Would that low keep the moisture more to the coast then instead of inland?

[wxman57]

if HRRR is right, 19z shows somebody north of Houston getting 4 to 5 inches if I am reading it right. Talk is the model did pretty well with North Texas storm this week.

Have a link?

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

That looks right, but it shows southern half of Harris County with little or no snow and the northern half with up to an inch or so.

[hlewis]

my six year old boy is a lil upset... if the low moves over SE Texas does that mean we won't get anything in Wharton County? How are our chances looking at this time?

[sobeit]

Noticed some dry air being pulled in to the south and southeast of the ULL over Mexico, could this dry air decreas our chances of moisture.