February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[djjordan]

Got some chicken in the crockpot .... Vegetables are cut .... Potatoes Baking ...... Gonna Roast two other chickens this afternoon .... It's a perfect cold day to be making food inside. The snow is only going to add to the magic. Yes folks this won't be a bust of a forecast. Just need a bit of patience that is all.

[CAK]

I'm with Ed on this one at this time. This to me is looking like more of a non-event, looking at the Satellite it appears moisture from the low is waning south. I hope I'm wrong, but that is just my observation from viewing the Satellite images. Keep in mind, I'm a noob and just basing my opinion on Satellite and dew point trends.

http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html

Wow, 37 users and 78 guests!

[MRG93415]

Got some chicken in the crockpot .... Vegetables are cut .... Potatoes Baking ...... Gonna Roast two other chickens this afternoon .... It's a perfect cold day to be making food inside. The snow is only going to add to the magic. Yes folks this won't be a bust of a forecast. Just need a bit of patience that is all.

That is what I wish I was at home doing...Fixing some kind of soup for dinner tonight with the fireplace a going..BUT I am stuck downtown working and really hoping they let us off early cause I dont get off until 5:30 and I do not want to be in a road mess getting home.

[txsnowmaker]

I feel very good about this one! NWS is still showing up to four inches of accumulation possible in my part of Houston, and with a few potential heavy bands, who knows?!

[srainhoutx]

Well Corpus hasn't changed their mind...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1132 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE LOWERING INDICATING THAT THE GFS IS PROBABLY
HANDLING THE SITUATION CONCERNING ISENTROPIC PATTERN BETTER THAN
NAM IS. THUS...AM LOWERING CIGS AS ISENTROPIC PATTERN TAKES HOLD
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CIGS AT MVFR NOW AT KALI AND KCRP AND
BECOMING SO AT KVCT AOB 01Z AND KLRD AOB 02Z. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TIMING OF WINTRY PRECIP AT TAF LOCATIONS...WITH -FZRAPL AT KCRP
STARTING AOA 20Z (19Z AT KALI)...WITH -SNPL AT KVCT AOA 21Z. AT
KLRD...ISENTROPIC PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO DO HAVE A
CHANCE -SN (SHOULD BE ALL SNOW) BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. WINTRY PRECIP
SHOULD BECOME ALL ICE/SNOW AROUND 06Z...THEN ALL SNOW BEFORE
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH VFR FORECAST AOA 09Z AT KLRD...AOA 15Z AT KALI
AND KCRP...AND JUST BEFORE TAF FORECAST ENDS AT KVCT.

[cristina99]

it's the WAITING!!! I will be very disappointed that all the news men said Montgomery County would get snow, then it not. But, as always, I know that's what happens with the weather, and especially living so close to the coast.

[djjordan]

Got some chicken in the crockpot .... Vegetables are cut .... Potatoes Baking ...... Gonna Roast two other chickens this afternoon .... It's a perfect cold day to be making food inside. The snow is only going to add to the magic. Yes folks this won't be a bust of a forecast. Just need a bit of patience that is all.

That is what I wish I was at home doing...Fixing some kind of soup for dinner tonight with the fireplace a going..BUT I am stuck downtown working and really hoping they let us off early cause I dont get off until 5:30 and I do not want to be in a road mess getting home.

I know what ya mean ..... I go to evening classes but today it doesn't look like that is going to happen regardless if school is cancelled for me or not ..... so I have got some cooking going and got that fireplace cranked. I'll save ya a drumstick LOL

[PaulEInHouston]

Nice Vis image appearing to indicate thickening clouds along mid-upper coast/coastal waters and mid/lower Texas coast inland...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=4

[tireman4]

I'm with Ed on this one at this time. This to me is looking like more of a non-event, looking at the Satellite it appears moisture from the low is waning south. I hope I'm wrong, but that is just my observation from viewing the Satellite images. Keep in mind, I'm a noob and just basing my opinion on Satellite and dew point trends.

http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html

Wow, 37 users and 78 guests!

Patience my young friend...patience.

[jeff]

I feel very good about this one! NWS is still showing up to four inches of accumulation possible in my part of Houston, and with a few potential heavy bands, who knows?!

We are still good to go...calm down folks

[ammmyjjj]

Would someone mind educating me as to what an "isentropic" pattern is?

Thank You

[ejburas]

Ah, there's a voice of reason. Thanks Jeff.

[tireman4]

I feel very good about this one! NWS is still showing up to four inches of accumulation possible in my part of Houston, and with a few potential heavy bands, who knows?!

We are still good to go...calm down folks

Many many million thanks Jeff. I am always speaking highly of you and Wxman57...

[sau27]

Would someone mind educating me as to what an "isentropic" pattern is?

Thank You

It is where the moisture over runs the colder air at the surface. Moisture streaming in gets lifted above the cold air at the surface and then when precipitation starts it falls through that cold layer producing frozen precip. However in this situation the cold air extends up higher in the atmosphere so it will fall as snow. Usualy around here when we have winter weather there is a layer of below freezing air at the surface and much warmer temperatures a few thousand feet up. When precipitation falls from those higher levels it falls as liquid and then freezes into sleet once it gets into the sub freezing air near the surface, or falls as rain and freezes on contact with the surface.

[cisa]

it's the WAITING!!! I will be very disappointed that all the news men said Montgomery County would get snow, then it not. But, as always, I know that's what happens with the weather, and especially living so close to the coast.

just remember, they weren't really predicting much for northern counties till later in the day. It's still early. We're in wait and see mode now but I feel sure we'll get to watch it snow. I hate the last few hours wait most of all.

[ammmyjjj]

Would someone mind educating me as to what an "isentropic" pattern is?

Thank You

It is where the moisture over runs the colder air at the surface. Moisture streaming in gets lifted above the cold air at the surface and then when precipitation starts it falls through that cold layer producing frozen precip. However in this situation the cold air extends up higher in the atmosphere so it will fall as snow. Usualy around here when we have winter weather there is a layer of below freezing air at the surface and much warmer temperatures a few thousand feet up. When precipitation falls from those higher levels it falls as liquid and then freezes into sleet once it gets into the sub freezing air near the surface, or falls as rain and freezes on contact with the surface.

Sounds good to me! Thank you.

[jasons2k]

All --

I know the soundings are dry, but I'm not surprised. It's apparent on the radar and WV loops that the moisture is just offshore and it won't take much to advect it inland this afternoon and into tonight as expected. I suspect once things start going, the column will moisten quickly.

I still think the Canadian has the right idea. The heaviest stuff will be off to the north and east but I think we will see a window overnight of heavy enough precip to give us what we've been hoping for. All we need is a few hours of moderate to heavy snow (in bands) and I still think we'll at least see that.

Patience people, it's only noon. Things will change soon enough.

[srainhoutx]

Now that Jeff has talked some down from the ledge, let's take a look at IR Enhanced Imagery. I/L is becoming well established across Coastal TX and moving N. Even up here in NW Harris County, ceilings are starting to lower. Notice the stream and pooling of moisture offshore heading N. Also notice how the axis of the jet stream (Polar Jet) has started bending back to the W. That opens the door for more abundant mid and lower level moisture to continue to stream inland. The only hiccup I see was the call for an earlier start. Other than that, everything is still on track...

[sau27]

I suspect by midnight most if not all of us will be saying "what was I so worried about, its snowing"

[SOFTBALLDAD]

OKay I am so sorry, but after years of reading all the great weather info in the forum - one thing i have learned - When you get more than 2 people telling everyone else " Just be Patient, everything is still on Track" 9-10 times the event is a bust. I am sure some east of 59 will see something but this just does not look to be the widespead event it was thought to be. Really this just developed too far south in my opinion, weve seen it too many times before not to recognize it when we see it.