February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

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tireman4
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djjordan wrote:
tireman4 wrote:Is it me, or has the NWS-HGX updated their warning map:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

They just updated it but it doesn't show any significant change to their thinking. This event is on schedule at this time.
Significant no, but they did tweak it. The isolated 4 inches is now closer to me (banding, I am assuming).
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wxman57
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tireman4 wrote: Significant no, but they did tweak it. The isolated 4 inches is now closer to me (banding, I am assuming).
I don't see any "isolated to 4 inches" area. I believe they're implying isolated to 4 inches somewhere in the whole region, not where the text is written.
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To anyone losing confidence in the event:

The models/NWS are following .1''-.5'' of precip from several hundred miles away and attempt to account for current temperature, dew points, upper level conditions, and the magic that is "wet bulb cooling" hours in the future. If you think they can nail this down, even hours before the event, think again. This was shown in 2004.
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srainhoutx
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Impact Weather has updated their video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Paul
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the sun is not breaking through the clouds in Friendswood.....I am only about 12 miles away...the atmos is slowly saturating...I see viagra all over the place..... :roll:
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wxman57
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Still way too many variables to predict precise amounts in any one location. I'll have a pretty good idea by this time tomorrow, though. Just enjoy whatever amounts you get.
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Cloud2ground wrote:
tireman4 wrote:
I would bet every school and college will be closed tomorrow. Today...who knows...I can see an early dismissal....
I don't. Believe the main event will come long after the kiddos are home today.
Heck, the suns almost wanting to break through the clouds over Friendswood.
They better do some serious thickening.

RIGHT!!! I am at 290 and beltway 8 and I am seeing specs of blue sky to the west, looking at radar it seems this whole thing is developing just to the NorthEast of houston. Wouldnt that just be typical!!!!
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wxman57
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Paul wrote:the sun is not breaking through the clouds in Friendswood.....I am only about 12 miles away...the atmos is slowly saturating...I see viagra all over the place..... :roll:
Interesting observation, Paul... :lol:
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redneckweather
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wxman said: Still way too many variables to predict precise amounts in any one location. I'll have a pretty good idea by this time tomorrow, though. Just enjoy whatever amounts you get.

Yes sir...good words. Go ahead and throw the models and forecasts out the window. It's time to nowcast! It was 23 at my house @ 7 this morning. I've warmed up to 24 now. :D
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Paul
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wxman57 wrote:
Paul wrote:the sun is not breaking through the clouds in Friendswood.....I am only about 12 miles away...the atmos is slowly saturating...I see viagra all over the place..... :roll:
Interesting observation, Paul... :lol:


yes my mind was on something else when I wrote that..... :D
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rnmm
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Awww come on now we want snow LOL!! I sure hope the sun isn't trying to come out now LOL
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Rich
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SOFTBALLDAD wrote:
Cloud2ground wrote:
tireman4 wrote:
I would bet every school and college will be closed tomorrow. Today...who knows...I can see an early dismissal....
I don't. Believe the main event will come long after the kiddos are home today.
Heck, the suns almost wanting to break through the clouds over Friendswood.
They better do some serious thickening.

RIGHT!!! I am at 290 and beltway 8 and I am seeing specs of blue sky to the west, looking at radar it seems this whole thing is developing just to the NorthEast of houston. Wouldnt that just be typical!!!!
Most of the stuff I am seeing that is showing up on radar is south of Houston.
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Andrew
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Paul wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Paul wrote:the sun is not breaking through the clouds in Friendswood.....I am only about 12 miles away...the atmos is slowly saturating...I see viagra all over the place..... :roll:
Interesting observation, Paul... :lol:


yes my mind was on something else when I wrote that..... :D
Hopefully that Viagra will pick up. :lol:
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rnmm
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Ok if the models are starting to agree is our winter weather gonna bust?
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srainhoutx
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rnmm wrote:Ok if the models are starting to agree is our winter weather gonna bust?
Time to watch this event unfold. Everything is still on track at this time... ;)
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ronyan
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rnmm wrote:Ok if the models are starting to agree is our winter weather gonna bust?
Watch the radar, that's what really matters.
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Paul
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Big chunky flakes in Pearland...... :D



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djjordan
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ronyan wrote:
rnmm wrote:Ok if the models are starting to agree is our winter weather gonna bust?
Watch the radar, that's what really matters.
Short answer ..... no

Keep in mind this event doesn't really begin til later this afternoon and the main event is overnight into Friday Morning.
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Rip76
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WXman...
Hilarious

"I'll have a pretty good idea by this time tomorrow, though."

haha
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rnmm
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Thank you to all!! :D
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