February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

You're right. Both US models suggest flurries over an 18 hour period. What could I be thinking? Blizzard warning. Call up the National Guard!

That is not in the least what they suggest. If this was the case, the NWS wouldn't be so worried

[Paul]

I think Jeff was right on with start of precip.....moisture streaming at a good clip in now as the ULL digs...

[Andrew]

Over 18 hours- if that is snow it'll sublimate. Nobody wants snow more than I do, but childish weenieness doesn't help.

Lol. I don't know WTF you're talking about now.

I guess the NWS is lying when they say this could be a dangerous event. Thanks for the heads up, Ed

I hope they are wrong, but if you want to say both the GFS and the NAM inside 36 hours are on drugs, well, free country.

Well they did do a very poor job with the temps last night. Plus NAM has been absolute crap this winter. GFS is still showing the same amount of moisture as of earlier today.

[unome]

low 20's are going to bust for some of us....I am at 31-32 at 10pm....not sure if I am going to make 26 with cloud cover....

just under 29 in Cypress right now

[helloitsb]

We can debate it all night, but no one will really know until tomorrow night as it develops. Doesn't matter at all what the 00Z models say, or the 6Z runs.

Lets just remember what Wxman said

[wxman666]

Looks like Gene upped his Accums to 3''-5'' for north of Houston Metro, he also said a sooner start

In his old update, I was in the 2-4" range. So what am I now? 4-5? 6-8? LOL!

[nuby3]

Fool me once (2004)... fool me twice(2011?) we shall see

[Mr. T]

Ok, a foot for everybody. Because that is what we want.

No you're wrong. The models only show flurries. The NWS needs to get rid of the watch.

Sublimation

[helloitsb]

Looks like Gene upped his Accums to 3''-5'' for north of Houston Metro, he also said a sooner start

In his old update, I was in the 2-4" range. So what am I now? 4-5? 6-8? LOL!

ha yeah Cypress would be in the new 3"-5" on Gene's map

[Snowman]

Everyone needs to chill. We need to nowcast at this time and look at what is actually happening!

Ed i understand what you are saying about the models. there is no need for anyone to get mad. lets give it our best guess and look at what is happening in real time

[nuby3]

we will find out tomorrow what will happen. might as well not argue about it because soon we will know.

[Paul]

You're right. Both US models suggest flurries over an 18 hour period. What could I be thinking? Blizzard warning. Call up the National Guard!

That is not in the least what they suggest. If this was the case, the NWS wouldn't be so worried

Thank goodness for those westerlies in the GOM in 2008.huh Ed... sorry couldnt resist your claim to fame.

good to see nice debate eventhough you are the only one who thinks this will be nothing more than snow flurries for 18hrs...

[srainhoutx]

lol, what's all this melt down about? It's only weather. Good night folks. Play nice...

[Andrew]

Deleted some posts. Remember people there is good debate and there is bad debate. Keep it healthy.

[wxman666]

Looks like Gene upped his Accums to 3''-5'' for north of Houston Metro, he also said a sooner start

In his old update, I was in the 2-4" range. So what am I now? 4-5? 6-8? LOL!

ha yeah Cypress would be in the new 3"-5" on Gene's map

Awesome! Haven't seen snow like that since I lived in Dallas!!

[wxman666]

Deleted some posts. Remember people there is good debate and there is bad debate. Keep it healthy.

Thanks for keeping things in check Andrew. Helps me to get to the core of the info I need.

[Baseballdude2915]

Oh yeah, I left the hose on "mist" from 1-7am this morning.
Recorded low here in Dickinson was 22.1

[Ptarmigan]

Hey, I was wondering if you knew if there was a sort of list of the average temperature at the beginning of snow events in Houston?

Don't know about that, but I do remember quite a few snow events here and in south Louisiana over the past 50 years, and temps now and tomorrow will start out colder than in most of the events I've witnessed. Time for bed.

Here is average temperatures on the snow days. These are from +1" snow event.

Code: Select all

Date	High	Low	Average
02/14/95	28	25	26.5
02/15/95	33	24	28.5
01/10/06	39	33	36
12/21/29	33	27	30
12/22/29	38	24	31
01/22/40	37	21	29
01/30/49	28	18	23
02/12/60	49	30	39.5
01/11/73	33	25	29
02/09/73	38	30	34
02/10/73	52	22	37
02/17/73	45	33	39
02/18/73	54	35	44.5
02/02/80	42	32	37
12/22/89	34	13	23.5
12/24/04	37	31	34
12/10/08	43	32	37.5
12/09/09	46	31	38.5
Average	39.4	27.0	33.2
Median	38	28.5	34
Std. Dev	7.6	5.9	5.9

Average High
39.4

Median High
38

Standard Deviation
7.6

Average Low
27.0

Median Low
28.5

Standard Deviation
5.9

Average Temperature
33.2

Median Temperature
34

Standard Deviation
5.9

The Weather Museum was missing some snow event between 1895 to 1912.
http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

[wxman666]

BTW, sorry if this is slightly off subject...it does kind of relate. I will be using my iPhone 4 to take pictures and videos of the storm...does anyone have any ideas of what I can use to protect it from the elements w/o affecting picture quality?

[helloitsb]

Oh yeah, I left the hose on "mist" from 1-7am this morning.

on purpose or accident? haha, I was thinking of putting a mist nozzle on and leaving it going through the night but I don't want to waste water if we may get the real thing