February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[wxman57]

Hey wxman, I think you'd agree that there's no way we're getting to 38 today. We may not even hit freezing at IAH. Tomorrow either for that matter.

That's GFS 2 meter temps. I think we may well stay below 32 today.

[Mr. T]

Is it looking more like this event may start out as Freezing rain or sleet and then transitioning to snow? Or is it looking like more of a snow event? Thanks!

It is looking like driving conditions may become hazardous on all surface roads Friday morning, which is the main thing to get out of this... Main precip type to be determined

[srainhoutx]

Run not over, but NAM not showing the love to anyplace West of US 59...

WRF starts snow around 00Z Friday and increasing by 06Z...you should wait for the a couple of frames, Ed...

02022011 12Z WRF f48.gif

02022011 12Z WRF f54.gif

[C2G]

Colder next week, SHEESH.
After running 102 fever the last four days, sore throat, weakness.................that's something I don't even want to think about.

[Mr. T]

Run not over, but NAM not showing the love to anyplace West of US 59...

That's.... not even our event timeframe

[srainhoutx]

The NAM an WRF are much colder. I would not worry about this being a borderline temp issue regarding p types...

[Mr. T]

The trend was clear looking at 700 mb forecast RH before the snow even started...

Maybe the NAM is off, but it is a pretty pathetic snow verbatim, especially if a 3 day weekend is the goal.

Looks fine to me. Dynamics look to set up a potential banding situation. Upper air temps are colder this run, so a faster transition to snow

[southerngale]

I had a low of 18° and the temp hasn't budged yet.


Here are some local temps in SE TX, as of 8:22am:

Weather Stations within the KFDM Coverage Area
24.6 °F Oil Rig : 30 mi SE High Island, TX
24.6 °F Oil Rig 30 miles SE of Sabine Pass : 30 SE Sabine Pass, TX
17.8 °F Anahuac ES : Anahuac, TX
20.1 °F Central HS : Beaumont, TX
18.5 °F Field ES : Beaumont, TX
19.5 °F KFDM-TV : Beaumont, TX
19.5 °F Lamar University : Beaumont, TX
18.3 °F Marshall MS : Beaumont, TX
18.5 °F Monsignor Kelly High School : Beaumont, TX
19.0 °F Odom Academy : Beaumont, TX
21.3 °F St. Anne Catholic School : Beaumont, TX
19.0 °F St. Anthony Cathedral School : Beaumont, TX
21.5 °F Bridge City MS : Bridge City, TX
18.2 °F Buna ES : Buna, TX
14.6 °F Colmesneil ISD : Colmesneil, TX
19.3 °F Kimmie M. Brown ES : Dayton, TX
20.9 °F Evadale ES/JHS : Evadale, TX
15.9 °F Fred ES : Fred, TX
18.0 °F High Island ISD : High Island, TX
15.0 °F Rowe Intermediate : Jasper, TX
19.6 °F Kirbyville ES : Kirbyville, TX
17.3 °F Kountze ES : Kountze, TX
19.6 °F Sam Houston HS : Lake Charles, LA
19.7 °F Pine Ridge ES : Livingston, TX
18.4 °F Helena Park ES : Nederland, TX
19.8 °F Hillcrest ES : Nederland, TX
16.6 °F Newton ES : Newton, TX
21.3 °F Anderson ES : Orange, TX
19.4 °F Community Christian School : Orange, TX
18.7 °F Deweyville HS : Orange, TX
19.9 °F Little Cypress JHS : Orange, TX
19.8 °F Little Cypress-Mauriceville HS : Orange, TX
19.3 °F St. Mary Catholic School : Orange, TX
20.4 °F Lamar State College : Port Arthur, TX
19.7 °F Stephen Austin MS/HS : Port Arthur, TX
21.3 °F Sabine Pass School : Sabine Pass, TX
18.6 °F Laura Reeves ES : Silsbee, TX
18.4 °F Sour Lake ES : Sour Lake, TX
17.1 °F Spurger ISD : Spurger, TX
19.3 °F Pine Forest ES : Vidor, TX
19.6 °F Vidor JHS : Vidor, TX
16.9 °F Warren ES : Warren, TX
19.7 °F East Chambers Media Center : Winnie, TX
16.5 °F Woodville MS : Woodville, TX
22.3 °F Sea Rim State Park - NDBC : Sabine Pass, TX

[TexasMetBlake]

My friend at HGX texted me the following:

"I will issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire CWA this afternoon if and only if the surrounding offices pull the trigger with me."

[djmike]

Does anyone have a graphic to show "possible" ice/snow accumilations for the Beaumont area? We are in the middle of the HGX and LCH NWS area and we always seem to be left out of any graphics they create...Thanks

[srainhoutx]

The EPAC NAM charts suggest 700mb RH's will not be a problem. There is abundant moisture streaming in from the Pacific via a STJ disturbance. We are not on the EC, Ed. You should know our setup is different here in S/SE TX.

[Mr. T]

Call me greedy, I don't just want some flakes or a dusting. I want the upper end of the 1-3 inches. Sorry. And I find 700 mb RH's a good hint at where things are going. I'd also prefer colder temps where the air is saturated for better fluff factor.

It is all below freezing, but I'd like to see closer to -10ºC for better crystal growth. Time lurking the snow weenie sub-forums at a different weather forum have taught me good things as far as analyzing soundings.

The NWS has repeatedly stated the reasons why we will see more than a flake or dusting

[wxman57]

Moisture isn't an issue. What may be an issue at first is that some models (GFS) predict a shallow warm layer around 700mb (10,000ft) Thursday evening. So southern parts COULD start as freezing rain/sleet then transition to snow Friday morning. But there is some question as to whether that warm layer will materialize.

[southerngale]

Ice on some roads and highways in Beaumont! And it's snowing north of here, in the Lakes area!


Ice reported on some roads; light snow falling in Lakes Area

SOUTHEAST TEXAS - Ice is reported on some roads and highways Wednesday morning, and light snow is falling in the Lakes Area, signs of the increasing impact of a winter storm on Southeast Texas.

Drivers are reporting patches of ice on Cardinal Drive near the interchange with I-10, as well as the entrance and exit ramps at Delaware Street and the Eastex Freeway.

Very light snow is reported in Jasper, Lake Sam Rayburn, Burkeville, Newton and other parts of the Lakes Area.

[srainhoutx]

Light snow being reported in the E TX Lakes Area this morning, already...

[hlewis]

WXMAN or SRAIN....

Being in Wharton County, are we more likely to see more snow than others or less than others? Are we in the perfect spot again like 2004?? Sure got cold last night! Few friends pipes froze up even when dripping.

[tireman4]

I wonder if that is lake effect snow. Wxman57, Candy Cane, Jeff?.......

[Mr. T]

The EPAC NAM charts suggest 700mb RH's will not be a problem. There is abundant moisture streaming in from the Pacific via a STJ disturbance. We are not on the EC, Ed. You should know our setup is different here in S/SE TX.

Well, verbatim, the NAM is 0.13 inches liquid over basically an 18 hour period. Not epic. JAS, closer to .3 inches. For SE Texas, that is epic. And I don't know why moisture at the 700 mb level would know whether it is over Texas or the East Coast, as far as best crystal formation colder than -10ºC

The dynamics shown on the NAM would support the possibility of banding features setting up across the area which would obviously bump QPF amounts way up.

The NWS has stated this numerous times. You can't just take model QPF maps verbatim without any personal analysis

[srainhoutx]

Mid and lower levels clouds (moisture) increasing to our W...

[TexasMetBlake]

Looks like we may see some small breaks in the clouds. That might get us to above freezing this afternoon, but I still think the chances of that are small.