February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[ThunderMan]

All Weatherbug / Wunderground in Austin reporting between 24 - 28

[TexasMetBlake]

College Station went from 32 to 30 last hour..

[redneckweather]

The 'FINER' details will be in accumulations and what areas SOUTH of I-10 get the better stuff. It looks like a coastal event is pretty much written in stone since EVERY weather source I have seen says so. Oh well. I'm taking vacation next week to Leakey, TX deep in the hill country for lots of R&R. Come on next week!

[rnmm]

Are the temps falling faster and colder than originally thought? It sure seems a bit colder than what was forecasted, but I have no official way of knowing what the temps are. The kids are still as excited as ever about the thought of snow, they just don't realize how dangerous it can be for those of us who have to commute. I hope we all stay safe and warm and for those who want snow, I hope your wish comes true!! And yes I am wishing for it to for the kids!!

[TexasMetBlake]

Wow. 12z GFS showing no precip...

[srainhoutx]

Wow. 12z GFS showing no precip...

Check out hour 72-78. It's there. Low is closer to the coast and moisture further N a bit...

[ticka1]

The American models as well as the others are struggling, folks. I'd be very cautious regarding 'finer details', right now.

Understating or overstating the forecast? Just curious about your comment.

[TexasMetBlake]

NAM and GFS, at least according to these graphics, have backed WAY off on snowfall...

NAM
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=HGX

GFS:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=HGX

[biggerbyte]

Well, the cold front is obviously here. Time now to talk about the snow. Folks, I would NOT count on it. Better chances along the coast, simply because of the greater moisture potential. Even those areas could end up with a mix. Next, folks away from the coast, but south of I10, would have less mix, but varying accumulations. Finally, areas north of I10 would see all snow, but even less precip. Harris County, South, maybe you will get lucky, depending on your location. Montgomery County, north, pretty much SOL. This is how things look today, and it is not my final answer. That comes on Wednesday. I will say it again... Don't get your hopes up, folks. Any of you.

[tireman4]

The American models as well as the others are struggling, folks. I'd be very cautious regarding 'finer details', right now.

I agree. Way too early to focus on the amounts as of now..

[TexasMetBlake]

Well, the cold front is obviously here. Time now to talk about the snow. Folks, I would NOT count on it. Better chances along the coast, simply because of the greater moisture potential. Even those areas could end up with a mix. Next, folks away from the coast, but south of I10, would have less mix, but varying accumulations. Finally, areas north of I10 would see all snow, but even less precip. Harris County, South, maybe you will get lucky, depending on your location. Montgomery County, north, pretty much SOL. This is how things look today, and it is not my final answer. That comes on Wednesday. I will say it again... Don't get your hopes up, folks. Any of you.

Huh? It's going to snow just about everywhere it appears. The low is further north than in '04. Accumulations will vary, yes. I think getting your hopes up about a blizzard will lead to big disapointment but not snow.

[srainhoutx]

The American models as well as the others are struggling, folks. I'd be very cautious regarding 'finer details', right now.

Understating or overstating the forecast? Just curious about your comment.

Understating, ticka1. Look at how everything is dropping in regards to temps, storm strength and durations below freezing. The models are under estimating the strength and depth of the Arctic Air Mass and the dynamics involved. This is far from 'set in stone' regarding the finer details for Thursday/Friday. My hunch is we will see an over achiever. Of course, those are just my thoughts, for what that’s worth.

[biggerbyte]

I'd love to laugh at the outlook today for snow, but I think I'd just rather scream and cry. I tried to prepare myself, and everyone in this forum for a reality check, but somehow all of us in this area can't help ourselves. We are all dreamers. Nothing can really be written off just yet, but things today still do not look good. If we don't see better results on Wednesday, I for one, will be shutting down the dream for this event for good.

[Paul]

ED, nice JMA reference.....

[tireman4]

Well, the cold front is obviously here. Time now to talk about the snow. Folks, I would NOT count on it. Better chances along the coast, simply because of the greater moisture potential. Even those areas could end up with a mix. Next, folks away from the coast, but south of I10, would have less mix, but varying accumulations. Finally, areas north of I10 would see all snow, but even less precip. Harris County, South, maybe you will get lucky, depending on your location. Montgomery County, north, pretty much SOL. This is how things look today, and it is not my final answer. That comes on Wednesday. I will say it again... Don't get your hopes up, folks. Any of you.

Huh? It's going to snow just about everywhere it appears. The low is further north than in '04. Accumulations will vary, yes. I think getting your hopes up about a blizzard will lead to big disapointment but not snow.

I agree with Sir Cane. WAYY WAYY too early to even think yes or no.

[biggerbyte]

CC, projections all week, including today, have suggested that areas south, especially along the coast, would see the greatest potential. This is mainly due to where the greatest moisture would be. That is subject to change, however. Wxman57, Jeff, the folks over at Impact, etc., are all in agreement on this. That is the way it looks to me today as well, and I suspect it is why Heller is not exactly excited.

[vbhoutex]

The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.

Mr T and I agree that there is another front to our north...a polar boundary that is currently moving through College Station. They dropped 4 degrees last hour while we rose a degree to 44. I suspect we're going to see the temps tank here once the boundary arrives. I still think we'll be at freezing by 4pm.

Aha, I am not the only one seeing this. We had leveled at 40 for a long while and then the winds kicked up(still are) and we are now at 34f and dropping at the abode here in W Houston. Even seeing a few sprinkles popping on radar. Wrap around anyone? I'm not sure we will wait till that late to get to freezing though. If the rate here at my house continues we could be at freezing around the noon-2pm time frame.
I am so glad I did my freeze preps yesterday in my shorts instead of in this NASTY weather.

[rnmm]

Mr. Ed I know everyone in my area of town is with you on let's cancel school and build snowmen LOL

[srainhoutx]

CC, projections all week, including today, have suggested that areas south, especially along the coast, would see the greatest potential. This is mainly due to where the greatest moisture would be. That is subject to change, however. Wxman57, Jeff, the folks over at Impact, etc., are all in agreement on this. That is the way it looks to me today as well, and I suspect it is why Heller is not exactly excited.

Remember that old saying, BB. 24 hours out is a lifetime in weather world. No one whats to be too cute or bold just yet. Do you blame them? I surely don't. A question was just asked on S2k regarding where will the moisture come from. Pro Met AFM responded, and I quote...

Two places...1st place is that huge body of water known as the Pacific. 700mb flow will be sucking in Pacific moisture...moistening up the column. 2nd place is the Gulf. The low will throw plenty of moisture in.

This is very similar to Christmas 2004...but perhaps with a little more moisture available...and colder temps (so a higher ratio).

[Paul]

The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.

Mr T and I agree that there is another front to our north...a polar boundary that is currently moving through College Station. They dropped 4 degrees last hour while we rose a degree to 44. I suspect we're going to see the temps tank here once the boundary arrives. I still think we'll be at freezing by 4pm.

Aha, I am not the only one seeing this. We had leveled at 40 for a long while and then the winds kicked up(still are) and we are now at 34f and dropping at the abode here in W Houston. Even seeing a few sprinkles popping on radar. Wrap around anyone? I'm not sure we will wait till that late to get to freezing though. If the rate here at my house continues we could be at freezing around the noon-2pm time frame.
I am so glad I did my freeze preps yesterday in my shorts instead of in this NASTY weather.

VB- I am with you on that.....Currently Dallas at 19F with SA at 32F......we will be freezing here probably before 5pm is my thoughts....