February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

The entire discussion is worth posting since this a rare week in SE TX where we may see everything:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT OVERNIGHT TRANSPORTING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP NW OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A FAST MOVING LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS AS IT APPROACHES NW PARTS
OF THE AREA AFTER 3 AM. ANTICIPATE INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS N/NE ZONES AS THE NOSE OF A 140KT JET APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE SW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...WILL
MENTION THE THREAT OF SVR WX (MAINLY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST) WITH STORM MOTION
30-35KT WITH LOTS OF WIND ENERGY JUST ABOVE THE SFC & ALOFT. WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT REALLY CAN`T RULE OUT
HAIL OR EVEN VERY ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE. THREAT PERIOD
WILL BE 4AM-11AM AND THREAT AREA NE OF A BRENHAM-FREEPORT LINE
(AND MORE SPECIFICALLY OUR NE ZONES).

ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CLL AREA 6-8AM AND THE SE COAST NEAR
GLS BY NOON. TEMPS IN THE 60S AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S AND 40S PRIOR TO SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AT 20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILL NEED A WIND
ADVSY BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE CARE OF THAT ONCE THEY
DETERMINE BEST LOCATIONS/TIMING. WIND CHILLS TUE/WED NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SEVERAL COLD DAYS ON TAP AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO TX. EXPECT A HARD FREEZE ALMOST EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE BEACHES TUE/WED (AND POSSIBLY THURS) NIGHTS. DAYTIME
HIGHS LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING DROPPING A
TROF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS WED...INTO NRN MEXICO THURS...THEN
EJECTING EWD INTO TX THURS NIGHT & FRI. STILL SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING AROUND 6 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. WILL SEE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
OVER THE COLD LLVLS BEGINNING THURS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT WE COULD SE SOME WINTERY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM (MOST LIKELY
SNOW ATTM) AS HISTORICALLY IT IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR THIS AREA.
WILL NUDGE CHANCES OF PRECIP UP TO 40% AREAWIDE THURS NT AND FRI
WITH THE EVENTUAL PLAN TO PIN DOWN TIMING/QPF AS IT BECOMES MORE
CLEAR AND INCREASE CHANCES (AS WARRANTED). FWIW THIS FAR OUT...MODEL
BASED ACCUMULATIONS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO SEVERAL
INCHES.

GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTS THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE WINDS RESUME.
NEXT FRONT ON TRACK TO ARRIVE MONDAY. ECMWF HAS AN EVEN COLDER
AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
(1050MB HIGH IN TX)...GFS NOT SO MUCH (1030MB-ISH). HOPEFULLY THE
GROUNDHOG WON`T SEE HIS SHADOW ON WED! 47

[tireman4]

Uhh oh......

[Rich]

HGX seems to be getting alot more bullish in regards to our chances of seeing some snow here in SE Texas! Very Interesting Read!

[Mr. T]

Uhh oh......

Is this not the most bad arse zone forecast ever? It's got everything...

Tonight...Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent in the evening increasing to 40 percent after midnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning... Then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Very windy. Highs in the mid 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in the afternoon. South winds 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest and increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent in the morning decreasing to 20 percent in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly cloudy. Much colder. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 9 to 19 in the morning.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s.

Friday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s.

Saturday And Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Warmer. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows around 40.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Not as cool. Highs in the lower 60s.

Sunday Night And Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 60s

[Paul]

just gets better by the minute..... I can handle snow....but like others I hate the cold.....wind chills in the single digits.

Stat guy- when was the last time we saw that in SE texas?

[tireman4]

Uhh oh......

Is this not the most bad arse zone forecast ever? It's got everything...

Tonight...Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent in the evening increasing to 40 percent after midnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning... Then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Very windy. Highs in the mid 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in the afternoon. South winds 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest and increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent in the morning decreasing to 20 percent in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly cloudy. Much colder. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 9 to 19 in the morning.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s.

Friday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s.

Saturday And Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Warmer. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows around 40.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Not as cool. Highs in the lower 60s.

Sunday Night And Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 60s

Gotta love the Houston area. From one extreme to the other. Woo Hoo.

[Andrew]

I am surprised no one posted the NAM. Look at the -10 line getting close! I think Saturday morning could be the coldest day by far.

[helloitsb]

Interesting that HGX updated their forecast to all snow on Friday instead of a mix

[Andrew]

Interesting that HGX updated their forecast to all snow on Friday instead of a mix

Well we could still see a mix but there forecast of rain wasn't going to happen. Even the CMC (warmest of the models) had sleet/FR/or snow

[cristina99]

i can't wait till tonight - I am sure this board will be lit up like a Christmas tree. Who's bringing the wine? LOL

[AggieBuckeye]

i can't wait till tonight - I am sure this board will be lit up like a Christmas tree. Who's bringing the wine? LOL

I'm already ahead of ya...

[Andrew]

GFS coming in wetter and colder:

[Mr. T]

18z gfs is slightly more moist and further north with the snow. Even Texarkana sees some flurries

For Houston, still light snow bands moving through the area on friday

[Paul]

it might be something similar to what we saw in 09......Pearland got a good few inches where some folks didnt see so much.....I got lucky that year but lost all of my palms....ugh...

[helloitsb]

I'm hoping, if the forecast comes in tact, the moisture is plentiful for us in Tomball and North, 08 was pretty good but besides that we only really got flurries in 04 and 09

EDIT: I guess it really was more of a Flizzard in 09

[GulfBreeze]

GFS coming in wetter and colder:

I am in SW Louisiana and keep up with weather in Houston. I do hope that all of you in the Houston area who want snow get your wish. Anyone care to tell me what this graphic is saying for conditions in SW LA? Thanks in advance.

[CAK]

it might be something similar to what we saw in 09......Pearland got a good few inches where some folks didnt see so much.....I got lucky that year but lost all of my palms....ugh...

After the 09 snow, I pulled all the plants that didn't make it and replaced them with the plants that did survive...survival of the fittest at my house. Bring on the snow and cold.

[srainhoutx]

GFS coming in wetter and colder:

I am in SW Louisiana and keep up with weather in Houston. I do hope that all of you in the Houston area who want snow get your wish. Anyone care to tell me what this graphic is saying for conditions in SW LA? Thanks in advance.

Going to be a close call for the folks in SW LA. Mighty close as of now. Stay tuned!

Lake Charles NWS:

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SHOOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL US. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE ANY
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL AS THE FROZEN
VARIETY. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OF SOME KIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE RAISED POPS FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT BUT GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL FOUR DAYS OUT AND IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS MUCH TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

[srainhoutx]

Just look at the magnitude of the storm. Yikes...

[srainhoutx]

The leading edge of the Arctic boundary continues to dive S through the TX Panhandle. Out W, the trough digging S into the Baja region of MX as the storm begins to take shape...