February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:22 am

I don't see much change in the 12Z Canadian for Friday. It has the low closer to the coast but above-freezing air aloft over Houston. Wetter, but warmer aloft.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:23 am

Semi-Strong wording from HGX.

Hard Freeze Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1105 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...HARD FREEZE WATCH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-010115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.A.0001.110202T0300Z-110202T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1105 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS BELOW 25 DEGREES LIKELY ACROSS MOST INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACH...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 25
DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL SEND WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR PREPARATIONS FOR THIS VERY COLD
WEATHER AS SOON AS THEY CAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW. AND IF WAITING UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING...YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE IN THE COLD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

READINGS MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT.

REMEMBER TO TAKE CARE OF PLANTS...PETS...PIPES... AND PEOPLE. ALSO
REMEMBER TO WINTERIZE OR DRAIN YOUR SPRINKLER SYSTEMS AS THEY WILL
BE PRONE TO THE ELEMENTS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 DEGREES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS.

&&

$$

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:24 am

Mr. T wrote: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2004/us1225.php

The forecasted disturbance depicted on ALL global models does not travel anywhere near as far south as that Xmas 04 disturbance. Who's saying the snow will be south of here? I'd be more worried the snow will be north of here if the CMC is right...

Interesting comparison. Check out the position of the 850mb 0C line in 2004 vs. the forecast for Friday. The air aloft in 2004 was much colder here than the Canadian is forecasting for Friday.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:27 am

wxman- would you consider the canadian to be an outlier? I mean it'd take a pretty strng system to erode such an air mass, right?

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:30 am

Jeff, wxman57, the folks over at impact, etc.

I'm not ready to say yet. Not today. Too many possibilities. My comments are based on what some of the other mets are suggesting. A couple more days are needed, in my opinion, before saying either way. Forget the models in trying to predict path and available moisture. It will not be accurate.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:41 am

Ugh, can't access zone forecasts from any of the SRH offices right now.

Are they having THAT much traffic or is something else going on? I tried other sites and it's only NWS that is unresponsive.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:46 am

wxman666 wrote:Ugh, can't access zone forecasts from any of the SRH offices right now. Are they having THAT much traffic or is something else going on? I tried other sites and it's only NWS that is unresponsive.

There were steps taken this morning to ease the communication issues between the regional offices and HQ in anticipation of high volume. I suspect that volume is the issue with such a widespread storm heading in.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:51 am

sounds like some people are boucing back and forth between models. Could it happen like 1999? I remember it rained one day and got really, really cold and the steps froze over before I went to bed - the next day it was ice everywhere.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:51 am

GFS ensemble mean for Friday/Saturday...

01312011 12zgfsensemblep12096.gif

01312011 12zgfsensemblep12108.gif

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:53 am

0c line too far to the westtt

Im assumign that the sytem would pull in cooler air on it back side, so maybe a rain to snow event?

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:56 am

weatherguy425 wrote:0c line too far to the westtt Im assumign that the sytem would pull in cooler air on it back side, so maybe a rain to snow event?

They will likely be too warm.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:58 am

srainhoutx wrote:GFS ensemble mean for Friday/Saturday...

01312011 12zgfsensemblep12096.gif

01312011 12zgfsensemblep12108.gif

what does it show?

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:02 pm

ticka1 wrote: what does it show?

A bit more moisture than the Operational GFS, for what it's worth. And further N for redneckweather and BB et al...

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:06 pm

This sounds like a good week to make some chili and maybe some beef stew as well.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:21 pm

The Euro suggests the Lower/Middle/Upper TX Coast and inland areas may well see wintry precip...

01312011 12Z Euro f96.gif

01312011 12Z f120.gif

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:21 pm

djjordan wrote:This sounds like a good week to make some chili and maybe some beef stew as well.

I made chili and chicken noodle soup yesterday - tonight will be homemade bread and getting all the preps done around the house.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:26 pm

Euro is showing a good amount more moisture but a tad warmer temps

.18 in in total not all snow though some sleet/ fr/ and rain.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:43 pm

IMO, I really wouldn't worry too much about temps. Cold air should be firmly entrenched over the area. The hiccup will be available moisture but that looks to be coming together also in some way, shape or form. I've already decided..if better chances of snow are to the south of me, I'm gonna go find it before it starts. It would be so so so so so so so nice if I could just sit here at the house and see my acreage in a fresh coating of snow though. Fingers crossed.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:48 pm

In Euro world, we'll be going through all this again next Monday/Tuesday.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:58 pm

I'm not sure if the following is from the 0z or 12z European run, but it appears to be the 12z run: McAllen receives 0.23 inches of liquid precipitation from midnight to 6:00 p.m. on Friday 2/4. Throughout this period, 850 temperatures are below 0 celsius. However, 2m temperatures range from 1.7 celsius (midnight) to 0.6 celsius (6:00 a.m.) to 2.5 celsius (6:00 p.m.). If liquid falls as snow, and if one assumes a 10:1 snow ratio (it may be lower), McAllen is looking at 1-2 inches of snow accumulation, perhaps as much as 3". Would anyone with access to the text output, please correct me if I am wrong.

February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

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