February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[TexasMetBlake]

New AVNMOS numbers in....close to Single Digits now for lows in Dallas (13) with highs in the low to mid 20s. Houston is shown to have a dp of 9 on Tuesday night with a low of 25. Incredible.

[Andrew]

New AVNMOS numbers in....close to Single Digits now for lows in Dallas (13) with highs in the low to mid 20s. Houston is shown to have a dp of 9 on Tuesday night with a low of 25. Incredible.

If clouds clear out watch out! That is the only thing keeping these temps from just sinking.

[TexasMetBlake]

It should be worth noting that there could be a lot of 'spot forecasting' going on with this. The front could arrive quicker, the moisture could be slower. If temps are diving lower than forecast, changes may be made abruptly as far as temps (highs/lows) and winter storm advisories. It's happened too many times in the past for it not to be so.

[Mr. T]

New AVNMOS numbers in....close to Single Digits now for lows in Dallas (13) with highs in the low to mid 20s. Houston is shown to have a dp of 9 on Tuesday night with a low of 25. Incredible.

The MOS is kinda weird. It shows teens all the way to Conroe, including teens for two consecutive nights in College Station. It has 20 degrees for a low wednesday morning all the way to Palacios near the coast, and yet a full four degrees warmer for IAH at 24 and 23 for Hobby? Why is Hobby a degree cooler?

Anyway, judging by the intensity of the cold air coming in, I think we have a shot at reaching the upper teens at IAH thursday morning. We'll probably some breaks in the clouds to help us out, but it may not be completely clear

[Andrew]

You can see the cold air coming south

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[Mr. T]

You can see the cold air coming south

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

Run for the hills while you still can, man!

Although, it may be colder on a hill; So maybe you shouldn't do that...

[Andrew]

You can see the cold air coming south

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

Run for the hills while you still can, man!

Although, it may be colder on a hill; So maybe you shouldn't do that...

After further examination of the CMC it is really close to a snow type event. I wish I had the soundings for the CMC to see how the other levels look. It could very well be that in this run the CMC is showing a freezing rain/ sleet event. I won't know for sure until I see the 2m temps.

[Andrew]

Also GFS:

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KIAH.txt

Euro rolling out. I will update accordingly.

EDIT: Euro coming in colder.

[Mr. T]

Anyone notice the GFS gives CLL a quick transition to snow as the line of storms quickly roll through tuesday morning?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kcll.txt

That'd be mighty wicked...

[Andrew]

Anyone notice the GFS gives CLL a quick transition to snow as the line of storms quickly roll through tuesday morning?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kcll.txt

That'd be mighty wicked...

THunder snow! That would be amazing/ disappointing for us.


BTW Euro coming in a lot colder. Showing temps around 22-23 for Wed morning. And doesn't get us above freezing Wed!!!!

[ejburas]

Anyone notice the GFS gives CLL a quick transition to snow as the line of storms quickly roll through tuesday morning?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kcll.txt

That'd be mighty wicked...

THunder snow! That would be amazing/ disappointing for us.


BTW Euro coming in a lot colder. Showing temps around 22-23 for Wed morning. And doesn't get us above freezing Wed!!!!

Also shows a quick changeover at Hooks...

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kdwh.txt

[Andrew]

Anyone notice the GFS gives CLL a quick transition to snow as the line of storms quickly roll through tuesday morning?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kcll.txt

That'd be mighty wicked...

THunder snow! That would be amazing/ disappointing for us.


BTW Euro coming in a lot colder. Showing temps around 22-23 for Wed morning. And doesn't get us above freezing Wed!!!!

Also shows a quick changeover at Hooks...

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kdwh.txt

Wow really good find ejburas. That would be crazy if Hooks got a changeover but not IAH!

[wxman666]

SPC SWO Day 2 (Tue) - Slight risk severe storms. Tornadoes/wind the main threats.......

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Mr. T]

BTW Euro coming in a lot colder. Showing temps around 22-23 for Wed morning. And doesn't get us above freezing Wed!!!!

2m?

I'm looking at the 850 temps on the Plymouth site, and they are very similar to the GFS. So the surface must be much colder

[Andrew]

BTW Euro coming in a lot colder. Showing temps around 22-23 for Wed morning. And doesn't get us above freezing Wed!!!!

2m?

I'm looking at the 850 temps on the Plymouth site, and they are very similar to the GFS. So the surface must be much colder

Yep 2m. The 850 temps are a little colder but not by that much.

[txsnowmaker]

Fingers crossed that Euro keeps Thurs/Friday disturbance in play.

[Mr. T]

Yep 2m. The 850 temps are a little colder but not by that much.

That is pretty crazy considering the GFS 2m have us in the upper 30s with MOS up to 45. No idea what the hell the GFS is doing.

If it's 23 for a high in Dallas, not sure why'd we would be 22 degrees warmer with the same CAA and overcast skies.

[Andrew]

Yep 2m. The 850 temps are a little colder but not by that much.

That is pretty crazy considering the GFS 2m have us in the upper 30s with MOS up to 45. No idea what the hell the GFS is doing.

If it's 23 for a high in Dallas, not sure why'd we would be 22 degrees warmer with the same CAA and overcast skies.

Well the text outputs are going by every 6 hours So there prob is a higher temp but not nearly as high as the GFS

[Andrew]

Fingers crossed that Euro keeps Thurs/Friday disturbance in play.

.03 inch. It is still there but yea....

EDIT: then .05 inch so....


Also Euro is having trouble with temps that far out.

[txsnowmaker]

Fingers crossed that Euro keeps Thurs/Friday disturbance in play.

.03 inch. It is still there but yea....

EDIT: then .05 inch so....


Also Euro is having trouble with temps that far out.

Thanks Andrew. Are you suggesting that the Euro may be underestimating the cold?