February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[redneckweather]

Anyone else having trouble accessing ZPF's and AFD's from HGX right now?

Yes!!

[wxman666]

Anyone else having trouble accessing ZPF's and AFD's from HGX right now?

Yes!!

Perhaps they are updating things? There's a new graphicast out so far.

[southerngale]

Local mets in the Beaumont area are now forecasting sleet/snow in my area for Thurs-Fri!!

Thursday, with another hard freeze with lows starting off at 26, there will be a small chance of 10% of some snow flurries in the morning hours. Highs will near 43 with some sun by afternoon.

Friday, as we hit well below freezing again, lows start near 25 and reach only 42 for a high. There will be a 20% chance of precip again in the morning with some of that falling as snow. Accumulation is unlikely

Who made that forecast?

[srainhoutx]

Anyone else having trouble accessing ZPF's and AFD's from HGX right now?

Yes!!

Southern Region overload, I suspect...

[wxman666]

Anyone else having trouble accessing ZPF's and AFD's from HGX right now?

Yes!!

Southern Region overload, I suspect...

Ah. That would make sense.

[TexasMetBlake]

GFS shows snow for IAH...

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kiah.txt

[jabcwb2]

GFS shows snow for IAH...

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kiah.txt

What does the TCC% column indicate?

[TexasMetBlake]

Total Cloud Cover

[tireman4]

I will be back to check on our backbuilding wx in a bit and defer any additional discussion on the late week pattern to wxman57 in the morning. Not to mention we will have some 00Z guidance to look at by then also to see if our new trend continues or we go back dry and cold.

One thing is sure it is going to be one heck of a cold week after tomorrow.

Thank you soo much Jeff, Wxman57, Candy Cane and Txagwxman....!!!

[djmike]

Local mets in the Beaumont area are now forecasting sleet/snow in my area for Thurs-Fri!!

Thursday, with another hard freeze with lows starting off at 26, there will be a small chance of 10% of some snow flurries in the morning hours. Highs will near 43 with some sun by afternoon.

Friday, as we hit well below freezing again, lows start near 25 and reach only 42 for a high. There will be a 20% chance of precip again in the morning with some of that falling as snow. Accumulation is unlikely

Who made that forecast?

KBMT-12
http://www.12newsnow.com/global/category.asp?c=177953
Forecasted by 12 News HD Meteorologist Bert Charan

[Andrew]

NAM:

[txsnowmaker]

By the way, Channel 11 is now showing 20% chance of precip on both Thursday and Friday.

[Mr. T]

0z NAM slightly colder with upper levels through 84. Man, I'd love to see what it would do with that disturbance out west after 84... Looks like it is about to eject it a bit quicker compared to the previous run...

[srainhoutx]

Congrats folks. We just hit a new record for the Forum...

In total there are 75 users online :: 17 registered, 1 hidden and 57 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

[Andrew]

0z NAM slightly colder with upper levels through 84. Man, I'd love to see what it would do with that disturbance out west after 84... Looks like it is about to eject it a bit quicker compared to the previous run...

[txsnowmaker]

What, if anything, should be made of that batch of upper level moisture over Houston on Wednesday? Seems to just come in out of nowhere...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

[Mr. T]

...

The weenie in me thinks it would paint a stripe of snow across the area as it were to move across

[Ptarmigan]

If the Beaumont TV station forecasts snow, I think Houston will be do the same thing in the coming days.

[harpman]

I'm just sitting here reading and trying to interpret what this would mean for the New Orleans area next week.

[Andrew]

...

The weenie in me thinks it would paint a stripe of snow across the area as it were to move across

I would agree. The models are showing more and more moisture in the area from that SW flow so I could very well see a really big surprise.