February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
225 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

TXZ248>257-310000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
225 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...ARCTIC SURGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RAPIDLY PLUNGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND INTO TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY COLD AND DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO POUR
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
40S. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND
THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. MINIMUMS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
MID 20S WITHIN ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTY...AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITHIN STARR...HIDALGO COUNTIES AND NEAR
30 DEGREES ACROSS WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTY. THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
A FREEZE WARNING OR HARD FREEZE WARNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING
THOSE TIMES.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SLEET DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION BUT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND IF TEMPERATURES BECOME AS LOW AS FORECAST
SLEET WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

TXZ229>234-239>247-310500-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
338 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...
...HARD FREEZE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK...
...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY END OF THE WEEK...

DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH
LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE...RESULTING
IN FOG DEVELOPING. THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN MANY LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 37 WHERE SEA FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS MOVES INLAND AND
COMBINES WITH THE RADIATIONAL FOG. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS
COULD BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

SINCE IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE THE FOG
WILL BE...AND OVER WHICH AREAS...IF ANY...THIS DENSE FOG WILL
PRESIDE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD IT BECOME MORE APPARENT ON THE WHERE...WHEN AND HOW
MUCH DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS COMMUTING TO WORK OR TAKING THEIR CHILDREN TO SCHOOL
SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG BY ALLOWING EXTRA
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION MONDAY.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY...BEFORE A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT INVADES THE REGION. THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE
COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FROM
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ON MONDAY...TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTY AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TUESDAY NIGHT AND OVER ALL
BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT BEST.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
ALTHOUGH ITS TOO SOON TO PROVIDE SPECIFICS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTY AND INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WINTER EVENT WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS
TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS...PETS AND WATER PIPES FROM THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE POTENTIAL WINTER
EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

[biggerbyte]

Now folks, please take what you are reading today about the end of the week with a grain of salt. We were supposed to be having heavy rain and severe storms last night/this morning. Why, you ask? Because the models said so. I'm sure you get the picture. I would have not even mentioned snow for our area until about Wednesday, if not on Thursday. None the less, it is fun to see the extended forecast mention it. Don't get your hopes up too high. You could seriously come crashing down.

[txsnowmaker]

Just my two cents--it seems that the HGX office is being a little more cautious than their colleagues down south, Corpus in particular. Is that usually the case with these possible set-ups?

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z NAM is faster with the front and slows the progression of the Pacific storm even slower, now. Wichita Falls now in on the snow action for late Monday/early Tuesday. Winter Storm Watch just issued for their area.

[ronyan]

Now folks, please take what you are reading today about the end of the week with a grain of salt. We were supposed to be having heavy rain and severe storms last night/this morning. Why, you ask? Because the models said so. I'm sure you get the picture. I would have not even mentioned snow for our area until about Wednesday, if not on Thursday. None the less, it is fun to see the extended forecast mention it. Don't get your hopes up too high. You could seriously come crashing down.

We had some heavy rain down here! But yeah I would caution against having any hope for snow.

[srainhoutx]

Just my two cents--it seems that the HGX office is being a little more cautious than their colleagues down south, Corpus in particular. Is that usually the case with these possible set-ups?

All the Coastal NWS offices are being conservative. With good reason. Things have been changing daily. I actually was a bit surprised to see this potential even mentioned on Sunday afternoon concerning a forecast for Thursday and Friday, to be honest.

[Baseballdude2915]

Lowest temperatures of the season on the way, with multiple, however slight chances of precip during the height of the event.
The next few model runs will be exciting to say the least and tomorrow we can begin now-casting.


The question is, where is everyone at? lol.

[sambucol]

The question is, where is everyone at? lol.

I'm here

[ronyan]

Maximum pressure in Canada currently 1046 mb. Up to 1038 mb in Grand Forks, North Dakota at this hour.

[Mr. T]

The question is, where is everyone at? lol.

Enjoying the weekend and warmth while we still can....

Once the work week starts up again and these snow chances possibly increase, you can bet this place will be hoppin'

[srainhoutx]

The question is, where is everyone at? lol.

I'm here

"Nobody here but us chickens"


Folks, as I cautioned this morning, this is a changeable forecast. As you can see, thing remain very fluid and will likely remain that way throughout the week. The temp forecast is a best guess. Same with the wintry precip chances. It can change, and change rapidly. I know some are weary of days on end of tracking model data, long sleepless nights, endless hours on the Forums, looking for anything of value. As we get closer to Monday night/Tuesday and the remainder of the week, I wanted to let everyone know just how proud I am of our local Forum. It's great to see folks getting back in the habit of popping in and posting. I also want to thank all of our Pro Mets who have provided sound reasoning and lend credibility to what we discuss and helping our local folks and beyond to make good decisions. We are fortunate to have so many outstanding folks that offer the time to explain and share experiences. This is what sets us apart from many other venues.

[Mr. T]

It would definitely snow here on the 12z and 18z GFS, but likely only flurries overnight friday into saturday. The system as modeled on the GFS is really starving for moisture. I think the setup looks a little bit better on the Euro

[Mr. T]

A very rare PDS Winter Storm Warning for the OKC area:

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO
6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM SITUATION... WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM SERIOUSLY AND PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
DISRUPTIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING

[srainhoutx]

It would definitely snow here on the 12z and 18z GFS, but likely only flurries overnight friday into saturday. The system as modeled on the GFS is really starving for moisture. I think the setup looks a little bit better on the Euro

Dallas/Ft Worth offered a great discussion concerning the pattern late week. I will also add that this pattern is not all that different from the Jan 73 event as well...

FINALLY WE HAVE BEEN INTERNALLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. BASICALLY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEAVES AN UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FLASHES OF BRINGING
THIS LOW THROUGH IN TACT FRI-SUN. MOST HAVE NOW SETTLED ON
BRINGING THIS THROUGH IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME NOW...BUT FEW ARE
VERY BULLISH WITH MOISTURE PROFILES. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE
CHRISTMAS DEC 2004 SNOWSTORM IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND MODELS SHOWED
THAT LOW HAVING LITTLE MOISTURE TOO UNTIL IT WAS TOO LATE. EITHER
WAY WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS SYSTEM TO SEE WHERE IT TRACKS...
AND BELIEVE IF THE 500 MB PATTERN VERIFIES LIKE THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS
SHOW...IT WILL FIND THE MOISTURE. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS.

[weatherguy425]

Are any of ya'll nervous about temps moderating to much by Friday to even support snow?

[srainhoutx]

Are any of ya'll nervous about temps moderating to much by Friday to even support snow?

No. Not really a major issue in this type of pattern with a strong northerly flow aloft and no end in sight. I suspect the models are overdoing any moderation as is often a mistake that we see with strong Arctic air masses. High pressure looks to continue to build in during the week after the front and ridge all the way S into MX. You'll notice the East Coast is not really included in these air masses. The SE ridge is showing up in a + NAO regime now meaning deeper W/Central US troughs. Now add the PNA ridge to our W to the mix. That spells trouble with an active 500mb flow. I have also noticed that MJO is likely headed back to 6/7 in the near future. That also suggests tropical forcing E of the dateline and may well add some STJ (Sub Tropical Jet) activity as well.

[weatherguy425]

Just thought I'd seee what you guys though seeign as the Canadian at least at one time didnt even have the 0c line reaching us (everyone said it was a bogus run though) I guess it would make sense that moderation would be slow to occur due to the front all the way out into the gulf scoring out any "warmth" that would normally be out there.

[biggerbyte]

The question is, where is everyone at? lol.

I'm here

"Nobody here but us chickens"


Folks, as I cautioned this morning, this is a changeable forecast. As you can see, thing remain very fluid and will likely remain that way throughout the week. The temp forecast is a best guess. Same with the wintry precip chances. It can change, and change rapidly. I know some are weary of days on end of tracking model data, long sleepless nights, endless hours on the Forums, looking for anything of value. As we get closer to Monday night/Tuesday and the remainder of the week, I wanted to let everyone know just how proud I am of our local Forum. It's great to see folks getting back in the habit of popping in and posting. I also want to thank all of our Pro Mets who have provided sound reasoning and lend credibility to what we discuss and helping our local folks and beyond to make good decisions. We are fortunate to have so many outstanding folks that offer the time to explain and share experiences. This is what sets us apart from many other venues.

Word!!!! . Best forum in these parts. Why do you think so many popular pros hang out here??

We Da *****BOMB***** lol

[BiggieSmalls]

Dallas stations are all on board in saying that this will be the coldest 3-4 day event since January 1997. Lows of 12-13 now being predicted, single digit-sub zero wind chills on Wednesday, and potentially "severe" ice storm on Tuesday.

[wxman666]

This looks big. Does it appear we'll be iced in for awhile in NW Harris and points northward?