February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Fairly heavy cloud cover suggested by the GFS for Thursday. Moisture lurking just offshore and barely inland in S TX. This is the possible secondary energy/disturbance wxman57 was alluding to.

[Andrew]

Fairly heavy cloud cover suggested by the GFS for Thursday. Moisture lurking just offshore and bearly inland in S TX.

Yea GFS has the 2m temps warmer than the 18z or 12z. At the same time moisture is closer and Bro even gets a little precip. While at 500ft they are freezing they are well above freezing at ground level.

[txsnowmaker]

Fairly heavy cloud cover suggested by the GFS for Thursday. Moisture lurking just offshore and barely inland in S TX. This is the possible secondary energy/disturbance wxman57 was alluding to.

Sounds good. Thanks srain!

[srainhoutx]

Secondary Arctic Intrusion heading S at hour 180 on the GFS. Good night folks. Time for me to 'hit the hay'.

[Ptarmigan]

Secondary Arctic Intrusion heading S at hour 180 on the GFS. Good night folks. Time for me to 'hit the hay'.

This gets more interesting. I saw the 0Z GFS for January 30 and shows rain on Sunday afternoon. I still think it will rain tonight.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm also anxiously awaiting what next weeks weather holds in store for us regarding cold and precip?
It seems like in the past we would see multiple squall lines and outbreaks every year. Now I can't even remember the last widespread outbreak with lots of wind and hail and tor reports. Ptarmigan? Summertime seems to have more at lest isolated reports now.

There was a severe weather outbreak on November 23, 2004, but not on the scale of November 17, 2003.

It would be strange to see severe weather outbreak and than a freeze that has ice and snow.

[Andrew]

This is why I stay up for countless nights (wintry percip right there) Also thanks Srain :

[TexasBreeze]

I'm also anxiously awaiting what next weeks weather holds in store for us regarding cold and precip?
It seems like in the past we would see multiple squall lines and outbreaks every year. Now I can't even remember the last widespread outbreak with lots of wind and hail and tor reports. Ptarmigan? Summertime seems to have more at lest isolated reports now.

There was a severe weather outbreak on November 23, 2004, but not on the scale of November 17, 2003.

It would be strange to see severe weather outbreak and than a freeze that has ice and snow.

Long time ago!

[weatherguy425]

Are the CMC's surface temps a little warmer. -10 never makes it into southeast texas.

[Andrew]

Are the CMC's surface temps a little warmer. -10 never makes it into southeast texas.

They are similar to the 12z but interestingly enough the CMC shows possible wintry weather for SE Texas and then Central and North Texas.

[Mr. Weather]

Are the CMC's surface temps a little warmer. -10 never makes it into southeast texas.

They are similar to the 12z but interestingly enough the CMC shows possible wintry weather for SE Texas and then Central and North Texas.

what day

[Andrew]

Are the CMC's surface temps a little warmer. -10 never makes it into southeast texas.

They are similar to the 12z but interestingly enough the CMC shows possible wintry weather for SE Texas and then Central and North Texas.

what day

Thursday for us.

[Mr. Weather]

They are similar to the 12z but interestingly enough the CMC shows possible wintry weather for SE Texas and then Central and North Texas.[/quote]


what day[/quote]


Thursday for us.[/quote]


that would be great if it worked out we shall see

[txsnowmaker]

Andrew, does latest CMC model run show temps too warm for possible wintry weather in SE Texas on Friday? (when I look at it the precip looks like it's still there, no?)

[Andrew]

Andrew, does latest CMC model run show temps too warm for possible wintry weather in SE Texas on Friday? (when I look at it the precip looks like it's still there, no?)

On Friday the 850mb levels look to warm but I don't know what the 2m temps look like. Once I know that I can give you a better idea.

After looking at the 12z the upper levels look a lot warmer than the 00z which is good for us especially for any wintry weather.

[Rich]

Andrew, does latest CMC model run show temps too warm for possible wintry weather in SE Texas on Friday? (when I look at it the precip looks like it's still there, no?)

On Friday the 850mb levels look to warm but I don't know what the 2m temps look like. Once I know that I can give you a better idea.

After looking at the 12z the upper levels look a lot warmer than the 00z which is good for us especially for any wintry weather.

Andrew, do the chances for wintry precip in SE Texas look better on Thursday or Friday according to the CMC?

[txsnowmaker]

Andrew, does latest CMC model run show temps too warm for possible wintry weather in SE Texas on Friday? (when I look at it the precip looks like it's still there, no?)

On Friday the 850mb levels look to warm but I don't know what the 2m temps look like. Once I know that I can give you a better idea.

After looking at the 12z the upper levels look a lot warmer than the 00z which is good for us especially for any wintry weather.

Thanks for all your analysis Andrew. Do the warmer upper levels make freezing rain more likely than snow in this scenario?

[Andrew]

Andrew, does latest CMC model run show temps too warm for possible wintry weather in SE Texas on Friday? (when I look at it the precip looks like it's still there, no?)

On Friday the 850mb levels look to warm but I don't know what the 2m temps look like. Once I know that I can give you a better idea.

After looking at the 12z the upper levels look a lot warmer than the 00z which is good for us especially for any wintry weather.

Andrew, does latest CMC model run show temps too warm for possible wintry weather in SE Texas on Friday? (when I look at it the precip looks like it's still there, no?)

On Friday the 850mb levels look to warm but I don't know what the 2m temps look like. Once I know that I can give you a better idea.

After looking at the 12z the upper levels look a lot warmer than the 00z which is good for us especially for any wintry weather.

Andrew, do the chances for wintry precip in SE Texas look better on Thursday or Friday according to the CMC?

Well the CMC shows more moisture Friday but it doesn't look cold enough to support any wintry percip. So Thursday looks to be the best chance but will we have enough moisture? Like I said above I don't have the 2m temps yet but it could very well be that both Thursday and Friday have freezing temps but the upper levels are warmer due to the SW flow flowing over the artic air.

The CMC is the most bullish for this to happen which is not always a good thing.

[Andrew]

Andrew, does latest CMC model run show temps too warm for possible wintry weather in SE Texas on Friday? (when I look at it the precip looks like it's still there, no?)

On Friday the 850mb levels look to warm but I don't know what the 2m temps look like. Once I know that I can give you a better idea.

After looking at the 12z the upper levels look a lot warmer than the 00z which is good for us especially for any wintry weather.

Thanks for all your analysis Andrew. Do the warmer upper levels make freezing rain more likely than snow in this scenario?

For snow you need almost all if not all levels to be freezing ( a deep cold) while freezing rain has pockets of above freezing temperatures that cause the moisture to melt and then re freeze closer to the ground so yes warmer upper levels would provide sleet/ FR.

[Rich]

Thanks for all your updates Andrew! It is much appreciated!