February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[snowman65]

FIZZLE...FIZZLE...BLIP!...GONE...Just another big winter tease....lol....Just bring on spring and move on

[srainhoutx]

I wish that were true, but I suspect we are a ways off from those 80F days just yet. The cold air mass is on the move this morning. Temps in Nunavut have dropped considerably overnight (now -40+ range) and pressures are rising as well. The Polar Vortex is doing it's job in grabbing that Arctic air and pulling it S.

[snowman65]

My brother is working in Minot, N.D.....welding.....outside.....I bet he is having fun....lolol

[Andrew]

Even the "warmer" wacky euro showed -5.6c temps. I don't see this artic air going away at all

[ronyan]

My brother is working in Minot, N.D.....welding.....outside.....I bet he is having fun....lolol

He might be today! It's 35F there right now. That won't last long though.

[srainhoutx]

Even the warm biased NAM looks cold...

[Mr. Weather]

does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

[wxman57]

does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

Overnight runs are considerably farther north with the winter precip.

[Mr. Weather]

does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

Overnight runs are considerably farther north with the winter precip.

thanks for the update

[wxman57]

Just checking the Euro 2m temps for next week. Even though the Euro is MUCH warmer at 850mb over Texas, it still brings the 25F isotherm nearly to the mid to upper TX coast on Thursday with highs in the mid 30s around Houston on Wednesday.

[Snowman]

i honestly dont believe the warmer model runs mean anything from last night. We need to look for trends. there is only one thing that is certain.... what the models are predicting now (days out from the event) will not happen exactly how they are predicting

[srainhoutx]

The morning Update from Impact Weather...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[biggerbyte]

That is very true snowman. However, let me just caution everyone that if you are not willing to believe the warming trends in the models, then the same should be applied to the cooling. Long range is just simply inaccurate, either direction. Instead, listen to the factual data that is being given to you from folks such as wxman57 from day to day. He just said, and I totaly agree, that we still need a couple more days. Caution at this stage to assume either way. Some folks have the potential to get greatly disappointed.

[tireman4]

I am still thinking late Sunday will be the day to really semi concrete ides....

[biggerbyte]

Compare today's video from impactweather to yesterdays. Notice the graphic he showed has moved the winter precip. further north. Also, listen to the lack of confidence. Much uncertainty in even the temps. It depends on a few things. We could be super cold, or we could just be left with nothing new. This is NOT a done deal yet, folks.

Stay tuned!!!

[snowman65]

haha..trust me....it's a done deal...fizzle......I've lived here all my life....it is VERY rare for these things to actually occur....especially in Feb....Hope I'm wrong...but When I start hearing "confifence is low" and "still 6 days off".....the reality is we are in S.E Tx.

[redneckweather]

All impactweather is doing is rolling along with the models. If the models move, then they will move.

Hopefully the next euro run shortly will go back to it's original line of thinking before last night's model run.

[Andrew]

haha..trust me....it's a done deal...fizzle......I've lived here all my life....it is VERY rare for these things to actually occur....especially in Feb....Hope I'm wrong...but When I start hearing "confifence is low" and "still 6 days off".....the reality is we are in S.E Tx.

Confidence in cold weather is actually pretty good. It is the moisture aspect that is difficult. I have to ask why is everyone changing their tone now?

[srainhoutx]

Not a lot of time as I have a meeting in a bit, but the 12Z GFS is suggesting a stronger secondary short wave to follow after the front passes. That feature would likely move past in the Thursday/Friday time frame if the GFS is correct. This is what HGX was concerned with this morning as well in their update. We will see.

[TexasMetBlake]

Order in the court! Order in the court!

Wowzers, a couple of 'warm' runs overnight and everybody is freaking out. May I be allowed to indulge myself here just a sec? Thanks.

I watched the movie Apollo 13 not long ago (great movie) and this airmass reminds me of a certain part at the end. In real life, as portrayed in the movie, the rocket is heading back towards Earth. All the scientists and journalists are telling the public how the rocket will enter the atmosphere and there will be a communications blackout upon entry. However, it'll regain it's communication when it breaks through into the troposphere. See all along, we've been shown time and time again that the arctic boundary is coming. In a sense, we have told the public what we can expect. It's going to happen a certain way and it's going to get cold. However, if the rocket comes in too shallow or too heavy, it'll either burn up or skip off the atmosphere like a rock on a pond and will have no hope of recovery. This is our area of low pressure. The low over the Pacific is, imo, what is throwing the models. Anyway, right now we've entered our 'communications blackout' as the models often like to lose cold air in this range. Once we start coming into Day 3 and 4, the idea is that they will once again snap back into place and 'see' the cold air once more. But it's all about the low. That low could give us a zonal flow and cause the arctic boundary to significantly modify if it is not progressive. Anyway, I'm not sure if that made sense, but it did in my head. LOL. Okay, off to work with me.