February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[ticka1]

Are these changes on the EURO good or bad as in cold or warmer/ snow or no snow?

Let's just say the Euro suggests most of TX will see wintry weather. Awaiting the next few images to show everyone.

I know I'm a pesky little forum poster who ask too many questions too quickly! The potential for some weather excitement is exciting....but a couple more days and we should know if and when its going to happen.

[cristina99]

This is, of course, all contingent on whether the lows, and the jet stream, and the highs follow the same track. Refresh my memory, what happened to the system - something about the jet stream? I agree with whoever mentioned it IS still a few days a way. But, if the models you guys study are true and are consistent, then oh, my - we better go to the store this weekend and stock up on everything - and firewood.

[txsnowmaker]

Under the setup in the 12z Euro, is precip in Houston falling as ice and/or snow?

[srainhoutx]

And the 12Z Euro says we will do it all again in 10 days...

[Mr. T]

What is with these European models? Seriously... We're talking within day 6 now. No idea what to think

[srainhoutx]

What is with these European models? Seriously... We're talking within day 6 now. No idea what to think

I hear you, Tyler. I cannot recall the Euro and it's warm bias being so darn cold, ever. Stunning.

[srainhoutx]

Afternnon update from Brownsville:

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WED AND THU AS A
SECOND FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THU. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE FEATURES
SURROUNDING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US TUE THROUGH THU. SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
SEEMED MUCH MORE FAVORABLE 24 HOURS AGO. MODELS ARE NOT DIGGING
THE UPPER LOW NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY BRING A WEAK
POSITIVELY ORIENTED TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
SO FOR NOW...OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN MONDAY
AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

TWEAKED POPS BOTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...ALL POPS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE
AT 20 PERCENT OR LOWER. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON AND TUE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI.

[harpman]

That sounds rather ho hum......

[Mr. Weather]

is Houston going to get in on any of the snow this time ?

[djmike]

Found this in the Impact weather blog! Look at the graphic at the bottom on the winter weather threat! Almost!!!!

http://yourweatherblog.com/

[tireman4]

What is with these European models? Seriously... We're talking within day 6 now. No idea what to think

I know very weird. It could be onto something. It could be on crack. I am not sure what to believe. I am thinking still late Saturday/early Sunday before I commit.

[tireman4]

is Houston going to get in on any of the snow this time ?

64 cent question, there.

Wxman57:

I'm now extremely confident that I don't know exactly what will happen next week.

When a pro (whatever his/her field) says this, you know we folks do not know...LOL

[srainhoutx]

OK folks. Hot off the presses, so to speak. A new updated video from our friends at Impact Weather...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[harpman]

Shoot! I can't get you tube vids through my work puter! Briefly, what does it say?

Srain, check PM.

[djjordan]

Gonna be gettin some firewood this weekend ..... This cold next week looks like it's gonna linger most of the week. Wow!!!!

[wxman57]

Ok, folks, I wanted to take a look at the 12Z runs today to see how they agreed with or differed from last night's run (Euro and GFS in particular). Here's what I see. The GFS appears to be making a well-known error in hanging up the Arctic air along the Red River on Monday night, waiting for the upper-level disturbance to pass before driving the cold air south. The Euro and Canadian don't appear to be making this "mistake". They both drive the Arctic air straight south to the Texas coast by sunrise Tuesday.

There's cold air in place across Texas on Tuesday and it appears that there will be a disturbance moving across the state on Tuesday. The Canadian is weakest with the disturbance, indicating little post-frontal precip. GFS is strongest (and slowest) of the 3 main models, holding energy back well to the west. But this is a common error with the GFS. The Euro, while aligned with the GFS on the 00Z run is now about 8 hours or so faster than the GFS with the passing upper-level feature. This does look more reasonable than the much slower GFS.

What does this mean for Texas? I think that Arctic air will be in place across the state with widespread precipitation on Tuesday. For us, it looks like most of that precip will be cold rain (temps in the 40s). But up north, say from the Hill Country through Waco to Dallas and eastward, temps may be sub-freezing. This could set the stage for a period of freezing rain changing to sleet and finally snow on Tuesday as the precip ends. Too early to estimate any amounts or precise locations of winter precip. I suppose we can't rule out the possibility that the Houston area could see some sleet and maybe (just MAYBE) a slight chance of a few snow flurries as the precip ends Tuesday afternoon/evening. By no means would I forecast such a thing at this time, though.

Now what happens after Tuesday? All 3 models drive the high center straight south to west-central Texas on Wed-Thu. Canadian and Euro are MUCH colder than the GFS. For example, the GFS predicts 850mb (5000ft) temps over Houston around +3F Thursday morning. The Canadian forecasts -8C and the Euro about -11C. That's a tremendous difference. I think the GFS is probably a good bit too "warm" with that forecast but I really can't tell just how cold it might get until the cold air is actually on the move south down the Plains on Sunday.

With it's very cold 850mb temps, the Euro is forecasting 2 meter temps of 20F for Houston on Thursday morning. This is about 5 degrees colder than it forecast with the last front, when IAH reached 26 degrees. GFS only forecasts upper 20s. I think lAH may record a low on Thursday of between 19 and 24 degrees based on a combo of the Euro/CMC projected temps. Not a 1989 or 1983 event by far, but the coldest air of the season.

[wxman57]

Shoot! I can't get you tube vids through my work puter! Briefly, what does it say?

Srain, check PM.

Harpman, the main thrust of the cold air will be south rather than east. I don't think there's any winter precip risk for New Orleans. Coldest temps this time will be along the TX coast to southwest LA. Just cool/cold rain for southeast LA.

[ticka1]

Shoot! I can't get you tube vids through my work puter! Briefly, what does it say?

Srain, check PM.

Same here with me...what does it say or show?

[tireman4]

I suppose we can't rule out the possibility that the Houston area could see some sleet and maybe (just MAYBE) a slight chance of a few snow flurries as the precip ends Tuesday afternoon/evening. By no means would I forecast such a thing at this time, though.


Thank you sir. I will take it......( This is only your thinking as of this time..as Sunday rolls around...you will have a better feel)

[djmike]

OK folks. Hot off the presses, so to speak. A new updated video from our friends at Impact Weather...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

The Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur area sure are mentioned in the video for possible winter precip! Let's hope it pans out!