February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Andrew]

I can hear crickets chirping. Where's our night crew?

Just got back from the Rockets game. I see NCEP is down... hmmm GFS is colder though but with less moisture.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well the gfs is WAY colder but no winter fun...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_ ... opnew.html

[Mr. T]

Pretty big change with the 0z GFS tonight

0z GFS has definitely come around to the colder side of things, as the model now suggests temps struggle out of the 30s wednesday with a possible hard freeze thereafter...

A very shallow front, as 850 temps are near -10 in Dallas while never reaching 0 in Houston...

[Mr. T]

Tonight's "lol" goes to the 0z CMC, which has a near 1060 mb high over Montana at day 6... Looks kind of like yesterday's 0z Euro run.

What's with these European models trying to overphase everything?

[Mr. T]

Tonight's "lol" goes to the 0z CMC, which has a near 1060 mb high over Montana at day 6... Looks kind of like yesterday's 0z Euro run.

What's with these European models trying to overphase everything?

The 0z CMC at day 7 has an 850 temp of -12 over the area. This would likely translate to lower teens across the area.

Canadian decided to go anticylone crazy tonight...

Witness the craziness for yourself:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

[Andrew]

Tonight's "lol" goes to the 0z CMC, which has a near 1060 mb high over Montana at day 6... Looks kind of like yesterday's 0z Euro run.

What's with these European models trying to overphase everything?

The 0z CMC at day 7 has an 850 temp of -12 over the area. This would likely translate to lower teens across the area.

Canadian decided to go anticylone crazy tonight...

Witness the craziness for yourself:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

I mean I know the CMC is known for its cold and wet bias, but this is ridiculous. This is stronger than the Euro 00z run! wow.... If the GFS shows anywhere near this cold that the Euro and Canadian has been painting, well I am going to run down to the store and pick up some blow dryers because it is going to be major pip busting weather.

[TexasMetBlake]

The CMC is pretty to look at but that is just not realistic guys. Come on. We're talking about 528 thicknesses over Houston and the 510 all the way down to the Red River. 850 temps in the minus 20s in AR and OK. That is **exceedingly** rare and would bring in '89 type cold. Highs in Houston would struggle to reach the upper 20s. However, it is interesting that the GFS took a big jump towards those solutions. I am starting to feel confident that the chances of precip are remote. The air is just going to be far too dry...disturbance or not.

[Andrew]

The CMC is pretty to look at but that is just not realistic guys. Come on. We're talking about 528 thicknesses over Houston and the 510 all the way down to the Red River. 850 temps in the minus 20s in AR and OK. That is **exceedingly** rare and would bring in '89 type cold. Highs in Houston would struggle to reach the upper 20s. However, it is interesting that the GFS took a big jump towards those solutions. I am starting to feel confident that the chances of precip are remote. The air is just going to be far too dry...disturbance or not.

I agree this won't be as cold as the CMC or the 00z Euro but I do see a great possibility of teens in Houston. I agree with you on the chance of precip. I was thinking this for the last couple of days and more and more the models are backing off on moisture.

[Mr. T]

I mean I know the CMC is known for its cold and wet bias, but this is ridiculous. This is stronger than the Euro 00z run! wow....

If you really take a look at things, the problems arise in the models around day 3 and 4 with their handling of a Pacific system that will be crashing into the PAC NW, shortly thereafter taking the dig towards the SW... It is the strength and speed of this system that will determine what kind of phase we get with the polar jet that will be crashing down into the Plains early next week.

The 0z CMC is faster with the Pacific system than the GFS, thus the polar jet is able to fully phase and allow a large anticyclone to develop across the Plains... This of course allows the high pressure system to build and stay along the Rockies, eventually bringing us a full blast of arctic air. If the 0z CMC were to verify, it would likely be our coldest outbreak since 1989, but some degrees warmer...

The GFS, on the other hand, is slightly slower with the system. Therefore, the trough is only a partial phase, as the upper end of the polar jet and all the arctic air are split somewhat into the Great Lakes and NE. The high pressure is then pulled further to the east, so the brunt of the arctic air is not allowed to traverse south. However, enough of an arctic punch is presented by the GFS that even if it verified we would likely still recieve a hard freeze (20s)

And now we await the 0z Euro to see what it says about all this... Last night's 0z Euro (and to an extent today's 12z Euro) really liked the monster phase look of the Canadian...

If the Pacific system is presented just a bit faster on the GFS over the next few runs, then a solution like the CMC would be possible (but I doubt it would be as cold as presented)

[TexasBreeze]

Still lots of things left to work out involving how cold and where the "brunt" goes. It does look like the moisture is going to be lacking due to no strong disturbances toward the west and it's hard to get moisture when the front crashes south into the gulf like that and brings in real dry air.

[Mr. T]

I agree this won't be as cold as the CMC or the 00z Euro but I do see a great possibility of teens in Houston. I agree with you on the chance of precip. I was thinking this for the last couple of days and more and more the models are backing off on moisture.

I definitely think we are trending a bit towards the "no moisture when the cold comes" type of thing, but with these crazy swings we're having, I'm not giving up hope just yet...

I definitely think we are on track to see another hard freeze across the area like we saw a few weeks ago... I'm just not sure how cold yet. The 0z GFS, as I said before, would still bring quite a blast of cold air into the region. If taken verbatim, we'd have highs in the low 70s on tuesday with some heavy rain and temperatures falling into the 30s to near freezing after sunset... Classic blue norther!

[Andrew]

I mean I know the CMC is known for its cold and wet bias, but this is ridiculous. This is stronger than the Euro 00z run! wow....

If you really take a look at things, the problems arise in the models around day 3 and 4 with their handling of a Pacific system that will be crashing into the PAC NW, shortly thereafter taking the dig towards the SW... It is the strength and speed of this system that will determine what kind of phase we get with the polar jet that will be crashing down into the Plains early next week.

The 0z CMC is faster with the Pacific system than the GFS, thus the polar jet is able to fully phase and allow a large anticyclone to develop across the Plains... This of course allows the high pressure system to build and stay along the Rockies, eventually bringing us a full blast of arctic air. If the 0z CMC were to verify, it would likely be our coldest outbreak since 1989, but some degrees warmer...

The GFS, on the other hand, is slightly slower with the system. Therefore, the trough is only a partial phase, as the upper end of the polar jet and all the arctic air are split somewhat into the Great Lakes and NE. The high pressure is then pulled further to the east, so the brunt of the arctic air is not allowed to traverse south. However, enough of an arctic punch is presented by the GFS that even if it verified we would likely still recieve a hard freeze (20s)

And now we await the 0z Euro to see what it says about all this... Last night's 0z Euro (and to an extent today's 12z Euro) really liked the monster phase look of the Canadian...

If the Pacific system is presented just a bit faster on the GFS over the next few runs, then a solution like the CMC would be possible (but I doubt it would be as cold as presented)

Yea I see what you mean. Thanks for the input Mr. T I am glad to see you posting more. Personally I could see a mix between the Cmc/euro with the gfs as the phase doesn't go through a full transition but isn't as slow as the gfs. We shall see soon I suspect as we are getting to the point where models will begin to fine tune what they think will happen.

[Mr. T]

Yea I see what you mean. Thanks for the input Mr. T I am glad to see you posting more. Personally I could see a mix between the Cmc/euro with the gfs as the phase doesn't go through a full transition but isn't as slow as the gfs. We shall see soon I suspect as we are getting to the point where models will begin to fine tune what they think will happen.

Thanks Andrew

If the 0z Euro comes in with a faster/slightly weaker solution than the GFS at hour 72 with the Pacific system, then watch out! It will likely unload the motherload thereafter...

[txsnowmaker]

I am reading observations in other forums about some models indicating potential moisture activity in our region later next week after the colder air has settled in. References are made to a more southerly storm track and potential players in the Gulf as well. Anyone care to comment?

[Mr. T]

I am reading observations in other forums about some models indicating potential moisture activity in our region later next week after the colder air has settled in. References are made to a more southerly storm track and potential players in the Gulf as well. Anyone care to comment?

The trend tonight has been for a more drier solution around here once the cold air gets here, but that can certainly change at this range...

[Andrew]

I am reading observations in other forums about some models indicating potential moisture activity in our region later next week after the colder air has settled in. References are made to a more southerly storm track and potential players in the Gulf as well. Anyone care to comment?

That is possible especially if the disturbance is small. A lot of models can have trouble picking up on these smaller disturbances, but at the same time models are trending away from moisture and with dew-points dropping like a rock after the front goes through, there isn't going to be much moisture in the air. I mean it is possible, but at this point I myself really don't think we are going to have any moisture after the trough. Lets hope I am wrong.

[TexasMetBlake]

It's also going to be exceptionally hard to get help from the Gulf with the front diving well south into the GOM.

Here I go again...becoming paralyzed at the computer waiting for models. It's all part of it I guess. I should have been in bed 2 hours ago! I do have to work for a living. lol

[Andrew]

It's also going to be exceptionally hard to get help from the Gulf with the front diving well south into the GOM.

Here I go again...becoming paralyzed at the computer waiting for models. It's all part of it I guess. I should have been in bed 2 hours ago! I do have to work for a living. lol

Hey I for one like that Candy Cane from a couple weeks ago when we had that big bust.

[Mr. T]

Before I say what I'm about to, please note that the NOGAPS, or Navy model, is a terrible and progressive model past the short term. I'm actually not even sure why they run it past hour 72...

Anyway, for whatever the heck it's worth, the model agrees with the CMC and brings the -10 850 line through Houston... Of course, being the progressive model it is, the trough is in and out quickly...

What say you Euro?

[TexasMetBlake]

I think I've been pretty good in not getting hyped over this. Sure, it looks exciting. But that fat lady hadn't even warmed up yet. Either way, I don't care if it gets ice cold or snowy...just as long as my gym is open. If I go more than a day without working out, I get into a panic.