February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[harpman]

What about the latest GFS, no one said anything about it? It must have busted some bubbles, cuz no one mentioned it.....

[wxman57]

What about the latest GFS, no one said anything about it? It must have busted some bubbles, cuz no one mentioned it.....

It's not much different from the 12Z and quite different from the Euro/CMC in that it drives most of the cold air east rather than south and holds a lot of energy off to our west, resulting in a frontal wave and lots of rain for us next week. Farther north (north TX to OK) would be a band of perhaps heavy snow. I still don't buy it, though.

[srainhoutx]

What about the latest GFS, no one said anything about it? It must have busted some bubbles, cuz no one mentioned it.....

It's not much different from the 12Z and quite different from the Euro/CMC in that it drives most of the cold air east rather than south and holds a lot of energy off to our west, resulting in a frontal wave and lots of rain for us next week. Farther north (north TX to OK) would be a band of perhaps heavy snow. I still don't buy it, though.

[harpman]

Seems like some models show the very cold and some (like the GFS) show the very wet. In Louisiana, we would combine these ingredients in a gumbo and have something really tasty! But, if Wxman57 still doesn't believe the GFS, I'll stay tuned.

[TexasMetBlake]

Just got home from the gym. While I was there, I caught WB 39's News and he was forecasting a high of 47 next Wednesday...much colder than all the other stations and HGX. I suspect even a high of 47 is about 15 degrees too warm if the Euro is right.

Nevermind...just looked...our friends at 13 have 45 for Wednesday and RAIN. lol

[vci_guy2003]

I like the trends:) oh here go hell come! Heller doesn't wanna eat crow so I'm sure that RAIN forecast will change to winter precip in no time

[srainhoutx]

Tough call a week out. What would you do? It's good to see the activity and new folks joining daily. I suspect the ‘night crew’ will be watching closely. I know wxman57 is still searching for those 80F days...

Oh, and don't forget about the weekend. Looks mighty damp.

[BiggieSmalls]

Dallas stations currently showing lows around 27-28 and highs in the upper 30's and low 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a 30% chance of wintery mix.....

[wxman666]

Anyone else notice our AFD's are being issued by the NWS Lake Charles office today? Any clue why?

[biggerbyte]

Tough call a week out. What would you do? It's good to see the activity and new folks joining daily. I suspect the ‘night crew’ will be watching closely. I know wxman57 is still searching for those 80F days...

Oh, and don't forget about the weekend. Looks mighty damp.

That is right on, srain. Most mets who are not on television will not even say. The mets in the public eye are forced to give some sort of forecast. That includes the NWS. There is still too much uncertainty, so Heller takes a chance on picking too cold, or too warm. Getting it just right would be a crap shoot this far out.

So, like srain said, what would YOUR forecast be like? There is plenty of egg to go around if anyone dare be so bold..

[sleetstorm]

Would any of you mind posting a map of the current temperatures in Alaska and Canada please?

[skidog38]

2 foot of snow maybe more

[Baseballdude2915]

2 foot of snow maybe more

Hmm?

[Snowman]

honestly i believe the cold is certainly coming next week simply because wxman57 thinks that
but i do hope we can pull some winter precip out of this because just plain cold with out the precip is not very interesting.
i would rather us just get down to 31 with winter precip than have temperatures in the teens with dry weather. That is just plain cold!

[wxman666]

Check out the CPC's US Hazards Assessment.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif

[Ptarmigan]

I saw the 1800Z 8 day GFS and shows no freeze, but heavy rain on Tuesday. Regardless of what the models say, it will be a rainy Tuesday and it will get much colder.

[Mr. Weather]

2 foot of snow maybe more

Where are u seeing this at ??

[wxman666]

Update explains things from HGX....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
928 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WFO HGX IS FULLY BACK OPERATIONAL AFTER A MAJOR EQUIPMENT UPGRADE
TODAY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SE TX
TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH CLOUDS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
AMEND FORECAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH FORECAST LOWS. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN MOST RURAL AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS ARE
INCREASINGLY FAVORING LOTS OF HUMIDITY AND PERIODS OF MODERATE
SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...NOT THE MOST OPTIMUM CONDITIONS FOR THE
HOUSTON MARATHON. BEYOND THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THAT...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE EITHER
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WERE LOWERED FOR
THE 5-7 DAY PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

35

[wxman666]

I can hear crickets chirping. Where's our night crew?

[nuby3]

For once there is no question to answer right now. The cold is coming. Will there be moisture? All we can do is wait for now it seems. I drove all the way to the sea wall to see 4-6 inches in 04. Man, it was REALLY coming down. I have a lot of experience driving in snow and I remember passing all of the other vehicles on the road as if they were standing still. For once I would like IT to come to me.