February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[harpman]

The 12Z GFS paints an interesting picture for Monday with a robust Upper Air Disturbance to our W poised to track across TX after the Arctic front has entered the Lone Star State...

01262011 12Z GFS f126.gif

01262011 12Z GFS f138.gif

01262011 12Z GFS f168.gif

Looks good! If this materializes, send it on over to S.E. Louisiana when ya'll are done with it.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well I don't think there's any mistake about the arctic boundary moving through. A few days ago I sided with the GFS. I figured it was more 'realistic' than the hyper Euro which has painted winter apocalypse here 2 or 3 times already this year (first time being beginning of December when we were supposed to get slammed with a big snow). However, the Euro and Canadian have been unswerving in their solutions in showing a very cold surge here in about 160 hours or so.

What the GFS IS good for is picking up on disturbances as we get into the short term. A lot of times little shortwaves or coastal lows aren't picked up until the last minute. I caution everybody that we're still 168 hours away and that is a LONG time in model world.

[Andrew]

Gfs is a lot farther west with the disturbance still in play. Should be interesting to see if the euro begins to paint more moisture.

[Portastorm]

Guys, let me be the voice of reason this round. We still do not know how much of this cold air is coming to our part of Texas. Even the video from impact that srain posted a link for mentions there is uncertainty. I caution again to prepare for the extreme, do not assume, and have no expectations. Everything still looks dry with this event, but even that is not 100% yet. It will be in a couple of days. Whatever does come down, it looks to be fairly short lived. It will modify and slide off to east. Right now, I am expecting nothing more than what many of us have already seen, temp. wise. We have plenty of time to get excited. Today is NOT the day.

An opposing viewpoint:

"Everything" does not look dry at all. The Canadian and UKMET suggests some precip next week and the GFS suggests a lot of precip next week. The European is dry.

As for the fairly "short lived" ... my experience has been that Arctic airmasses are very slow in being dislodged once they truly move south into the Southern Plains. The models, always, ALWAYS move them out too quickly.

But I do concur with you in saying that there is plenty of time to get excited, should that excitement even be merited.

[Andrew]

Well I don't think there's any mistake about the arctic boundary moving through. A few days ago I sided with the GFS. I figured it was more 'realistic' than the hyper Euro which has painted winter apocalypse here 2 or 3 times already this year (first time being beginning of December when we were supposed to get slammed with a big snow). However, the Euro and Canadian have been unswerving in their solutions in showing a very cold surge here in about 160 hours or so.

What the GFS IS good for is picking up on disturbances as we get into the short term. A lot of times little shortwaves or coastal lows aren't picked up until the last minute. I caution everybody that we're still 168 hours away and that is a LONG time in model world.

I see you are coming over to the dark side.

[Andrew]

Gfs is a lot farther west with the disturbance still in play. Should be interesting to see if the euro begins to paint more moisture.

Spoke to soon. Gfs sends it east.

[jasons2k]

Wxman, will you clarify something for us? You said 16-18 hours below freezing Wednesday night/Thursday morning. You meant to say 6-8 hours instead?

I can't speak for him...but I think he really meant 16-18 hours. The Euro, for now, seems to have the right idea and it looks cold, but dry. If we have a low in the low 20's or near 20 then that timeframe would be reasonable.

[Andrew]

Wxman, will you clarify something for us? You said 16-18 hours below freezing Wednesday night/Thursday morning. You meant to say 6-8 hours instead?

I can't speak for him...but I think he really meant 16-18 hours. The Euro, for now, seems to have the right idea and it looks cold, but dry. If we have a low in the low 20's or near 20 then that timeframe would be reasonable.

He most def meant 16-18. Euro and cmc show freezing weather for close to a day.

[wxman57]

I don't buy the GFS upper air solution with all that energy hanging back to the west. It made that mistake last time. GFS does have IAH down to 26 degrees on Wednesday, but I think the air that comes down may be a good bit colder.

[biggerbyte]

Wxman, will you clarify something for us? You said 16-18 hours below freezing Wednesday night/Thursday morning. You meant to say 6-8 hours instead?

I can't speak for him...but I think he really meant 16-18 hours. The Euro, for now, seems to have the right idea and it looks cold, but dry. If we have a low in the low 20's or near 20 then that timeframe would be reasonable.

Not possible. Wxman is speaking about overnight. There is no 16 to 18 hours overnight.
That is why I would like for him to clarify. He probably meant part of a day with the nighttime hours.

[jasons2k]

I can't speak for him...but I think he really meant 16-18 hours. The Euro, for now, seems to have the right idea and it looks cold, but dry. If we have a low in the low 20's or near 20 then that timeframe would be reasonable.

Not possible. Wxman is speaking about overnight. There is no 16 to 18 hours overnight.
That is why I would like for him to clarify. He probably meant part of a day with the nighttime hours.

He never said "overnight". He said "Wed night - Thur morning". If that begins at 6PM on Wed and runs until Noon on Thursday, that's 18 hours.

I think it's quite possible we could be looking at a low near 20 degrees, and that would not be a 6-8 hour freeze. More like 16-18 hours.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) has backed away from the moisture idea, but does suggest a 1055+ Arctic High Pressure sliding down and mighty chilly air across all of TX...

[biggerbyte]

Quoting Portastorm:


"Everything" does not look dry at all. The Canadian and UKMET suggests some precip next week and the GFS suggests a lot of precip next week. The European is dry.

As for the fairly "short lived" ... my experience has been that Arctic airmasses are very slow in being dislodged once they truly move south into the Southern Plains. The models, always, ALWAYS move them out too quickly.

But I do concur with you in saying that there is plenty of time to get excited, should that excitement even be merited.

End Quote:

I agree that if you pay attention to the models, one would leave the door open for possibilities. My statements are not based on following what any model might be suggesting. Also, I did mention it not being 100% yet. Many folks agree with my stance on the moisture issue, in spite of current model guidance. At any rate.. Your current stance could end up being the final solution. Again, not 100% yet. Thanks for the points of view. All of our different comments about this event just shows the amount of uncertainty we are currently facing.

[wxman57]

I think I can clarify what I said with regard to 16-18 hours of sub-freezing temps. I did mean overnight Wednesday, but from around 6pm Wednesday evening until perhaps late Thursday morning. That's 16-18 hours. It's all speculation this far out, though. But if Houston does see a strong shot of Arctic air then we may drop below freezing by sunset Wednesday and not reach 32 again until near noon Thursday.

[biggerbyte]

I think I can clarify what I said with regard to 16-18 hours of sub-freezing temps. I did mean overnight Wednesday, but from around 6pm Wednesday evening until perhaps late Thursday morning. That's 16-18 hours. It's all speculation this far out, though. But if Houston does see a strong shot of Arctic air then we may drop below freezing by sunset Wednesday and not reach 32 again until near noon Thursday.

Thanks wxman.. I thought you meant to include some sunlight in that. I knew that sunset to sunrise, which was what you seem to suggest, was only roughly 12 hours. That is still a long time in itself.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) has backed away from the moisture idea, but does suggest a 1055+ Arctic High Pressure sliding down and mighty chilly air across all of TX...

Correction. The Canadian now shows moisture and cold in the longer range...

[Andrew]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) has backed away from the moisture idea, but does suggest a 1055+ Arctic High Pressure sliding down and mighty chilly air across all of TX...

Correction. The Canadian now shows moisture and cold in the longer range...

I was about to say... Canadian still shows a wintry mess for most of Texas

[redneckweather]

Cold air is a lock in some way, shape or form. Come on moisture! As Ed would say, what a waist of cold air if their is nothing falling from the sky.

[biggerbyte]

I'm anxious for Friday and Saturday to get here. We should be able to lock this event down, one solution, or another.
Here is to hoping for blistering cold, with some moisture to go along with it. I'm not to keen on ice, however.

[biggerbyte]

What do you think, Andrew? Do you care about the ice?