January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Belmer]

I went to the Weather Channel's website, and I typed in the search box, Houston, TX and went to the 10 day forecast. When I did so. I went to Monday and Tuesday. And if you click those two days and look at the precip. for the area in our area during the day and night, you can see they are picking up on the cold/snow too. All to the north of us is blanket in snow. And on Tuesday night here they have snow coming very close to Houston. And thats just what the Weather Channel has. Unusual to see the Weather Channel pick up on this a bit early. I really do think we are in for a treat for the people who love the cold and some type of winter precip. It's going to be an interesting week.

[seanatsk]

At what temp will snow fall?

Ground temperatures are really unimprotant. The true indicator of snow fall is the right type of air column. There has to be a freezing and a warm layer to let it re-freeze. I have seen it snow at 40 degrees but it didn't stick. Wxman has a formula for the type of surface temp that is more conducive for snow fall.

This is not correct. If there was a warm layer, the snowflake would transform into a raindrop if it fell into a warm column and then refreeze in the form of a rain drop. We call this sleet. You are correct about ground temps---to a point. It has to be cold but if the snow falls hard enough, it can snow with temps in the 40s. But that is very rare. Normally at 35 or 36 degrees, you can get a good snowfall. We've seen that here in Houston several times. However, the entire column from just above the surface to 850 must be freezing.

I got close. I was thinking about 15 minutes after I typed and thought I should have edited the whole thing. Oh well thanks for the clarification.

[jabcwb2]

I went to the Weather Channel's website, and I typed in the search box, Houston, TX and went to the 10 day forecast. When I did so. I went to Monday and Tuesday. And if you click those two days and look at the precip. for the area in our area during the day and night, you can see they are picking up on the cold/snow too. All to the north of us is blanket in snow. And on Tuesday night here they have snow coming very close to Houston. And thats just what the Weather Channel has. Unusual to see the Weather Channel pick up on this a bit early. I really do think we are in for a treat for the people who love the cold and some type of winter precip. It's going to be an interesting week.

I went to look. Winter precip may be possible but with 60 degree highs, it sure won't last!

[Andrew]

I went to the Weather Channel's website, and I typed in the search box, Houston, TX and went to the 10 day forecast. When I did so. I went to Monday and Tuesday. And if you click those two days and look at the precip. for the area in our area during the day and night, you can see they are picking up on the cold/snow too. All to the north of us is blanket in snow. And on Tuesday night here they have snow coming very close to Houston. And thats just what the Weather Channel has. Unusual to see the Weather Channel pick up on this a bit early. I really do think we are in for a treat for the people who love the cold and some type of winter precip. It's going to be an interesting week.

I went to look. Winter precip may be possible but with 60 degree highs, it sure won't last!

Please don't look at any forecast that is 10-15 days out. Especially from the weather channel. It is taken directly from certain models with NO meteorologist input. They will be wrong 99% of the time.

[TexasMetBlake]

Kansas City:

MEDIUM RANGE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE REMAINS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE PREDICTION OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

OF GRAVER CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE LOOMING PROSPECT OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER SEASON SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH.
THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE
THAT THE DUAL CORED ALEUTIAN VORTEX WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AMPLE UPSTREAM
ENERGY ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. A FORCED DOWNSTREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ALIGN ITSELF ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AND
THROUGH THE STATE OF ALASKA...PHASING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING RIDGING
ALONG THE US PACIFIC COASTLINE. THE PROSPECTS OF A SINGLE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR US...ESPECIALLY AS THE POLAR VORTEX SLOWLY MIGRATES BACK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS TELECONNECTION WOULD SPELL A
DIRECT CROSS-POLAR FLOW FROM THE HEART OF EASTERN ALASKA/WESTERN
CANADA...DISLODGING THE FRIGID AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE WEEKEND WHICH MODELS REALIZE AS A
SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE OF 1045 TO 1050+ MB.
AHEAD OF THIS ARCTIC SURGE...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MILD DAY
/IN A RELATIVE SENSE/ AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL PROMOTE A DEEP FETCH OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT DID NOT EXPERIENCE SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT (SRN
KC METRO TO THE SOUTHWEST) WILL BENEFIT MOST FROM THIS AND MAY SEE
MID 40S REALIZED.

FACTORING IN THE SNOWPACK AND REMOVED MOS CLIMATOLOGICAL BIASES IN
THE DAY 6-7 PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO THE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY MAY NOT
ESCAPE THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH LOWS
MONDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY REACHING THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE UPSTREAM SURFACE RIDGE...IT WOULD SEEM LOGICAL TO
DEDUCE THAT WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK IN THE GRADIENT REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
LIKELY UNDER THIS SCENARIO.

[wxman666]

Interesting tidbit from NWS Dallas/Ft. Worth...

DIFFERENCES ON SYSTEMS REALLY GET REALIZED DAY 7/BEYOND AS THE GFS
ADVERTISES A STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN/MON IN THE SRN STREAM/
CONVERGENT UPPER FLOW OVER TX...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER/SLOWER/
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AS STATED...WE`RE
ON BOARD WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE TIME BEING AND WITH IT`S BETTER
TRACK RECORD BEYOND DAY 5 IN MOST CASES. 05/

[Andrew]

00z gfs has the cold air going off to the east... Interesting to note that the shortwave is more amplified towards us but there is a lacking of cold air even though the setup is very similar to past runs. Next comes the Canadian.

[harpman]

The models giveth and now taketh away!

[TexasBreeze]

I don't think the cold air up there will go away so there shouldn't be a lack of it. As for going east, that's probable if the cold in Canada shifts towards the east-central part of that country or if the upper flow here is more northwesterly causing another glancing blow.

[txsnowmaker]

As one who certainly wouldn't mind seeing winter weather (snow) in our area, the fact that the GFS continues to show a storm in our neck of the woods from run to run is of great interest. While the temps in this run appear too warm to support frozen precip, I harken back to wxman57's thoughts below regarding temperatures during this timeframe. There is no way to know exactly what will happen this far out, but the fact that a winter weather event is still a possibility for us in a little over a week is certainly enough to keep me glued to this great weather forum over the coming days.

wxman57 wrote:
If we step back and take a look at some of the signals that we're seeing, then it seems likely that there will be some type of significant event at the beginning of February. When I say that the pattern evolving appears similar to 1993, I don't mean that I expect another massive Gulf and east coast storm. It's possible that the pattern just leads to a major nor'easter.

What we do know is that there is some VERY cold air up in Canada now, and lots of it. With the pattern evolving, we have a very good shot at getting some quite cold Arctic air down here. Whether or not we get any frozen precip will depend on the details in the upcoming pattern - something we can't be sure of this far out.

The way I see it, there are 3 main possibilities for next week (around Feb 1-3):

1. Models are incorrect with the overall pattern and it's just more of the same (current weather). I'd say this isn't the highest probability, probably the lowest probability of the 3 options.

2. Significant dry surge of Canadian/Arctic air that may drop temps into the 20 degree range here or lower. Very hard freeze but no precip involved.

3. Moderately cold Canadian/Arctic air intrusion with secondary impulse moving through the cold air. This is what the GFS is forecasting and the Euro is hinting at around day 11-12.

I'm not ready to buy #3 just yet, but I could easily believe that we could get quite cold here in 9-10 days (#2 above). It's just so hard to get the timing and conditions here right for snow.

[Mr. T]

The models giveth and now taketh away!

Actually, just the GFS

The 0z CMC and 0z Euro are much colder and would likely bring an ice storm threat 'round these parts

[Andrew]

The models giveth and now taketh away!

Actually, just the GFS

The 0z CMC and 0z Euro are much colder and would likely bring an ice storm threat 'round these parts

Yep

[Mr. T]

Just by taking a quick look at the 0z GFS ensemble mean would seem to support the 0z Euro and CMC solutions. Hell, even the 0z Navy supports the Euro...

Methinks the operational 0z GFS was just a burp run.

The upper level pattern being depicted by the Euro and CMC by day 7 is similar to Jan 97 except the disturbance is further south across the Western US

[Mr. T]

Actually, some the GFS ensemble members are more on the snowy side of things rather than ice, but that's not really important this far out

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the overnight updates, guys. The Euro and Canadian sure look interesting. That looks like a possible wintry weather scenario to me across TX via those models. The GFS should benefit from that Winter RECON data in future runs. Meanwhile, what a rainy night and more on the way as the surface low develops along the Middle TX Coast and moves NE. It's chilly as well.

[wxman57]

It'll be another 5-6 days before we have much confidence in next week's weather. This is the time period prior to an event that the models tend to struggle, so I wouldn't put too much stock in any model runs for the next 3-5 days. And don't expect the local NWS office to mention any winter precip next week. They'll only do so when they're confident that such precip is more likely than not, and that's not going to happen this week.

[randybpt]

I would say so Wxman the gfs has us in the 60s next week no.freezes at all for next 15 days. Be real helpful in my planning my vacation I.have to.take. if.we had any clue if its going to be freezing sure would like to plan a fishing trip

[srainhoutx]

Seeing some healthy radar returns in Brazoria County as the surface low begins to deepen to our SW offshore from Aransas Pass.

[Mr. Weather]

is Houston's chances for getting some wintry weather around the 1st of February getting better or worse j/w thanks

[PaulEInHouston]

is Houston's chances for getting some wintry weather around the 1st of February getting better or worse j/w thanks

It's a crap shoot Mr. W. As wxman said, the models sometimes struggle in this time frame, so it's difficult to say which way it might go. The only thing that I've noticed is that there was, and still is, to a lesser extent, some continuity of other models for a span of 3 or 4 days' runs. That's a bit stronger of a "maybe" than the 2 weeks ago "blast from deep space" that was forecast to come down from Canada, lol.

As for locally, yes, definitely seeing some better/stronger echos as the low strengthens to our SWest. It looks like HGX had a pretty good handle on the chances for thunder being near or just offshore as well.

http://wx.apxsolutionsinc.com/wxradarbaseref.php