January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[djmike]

Snow flurries this morning in Beaumont!

http://www.kfdm.com/articles/flurries-4 ... heast.html

[unome]

-46 being reported as low temps by NWS Duluth for Int'l Falls & Babbitt

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 0&source=0

[djmike]

Wow...odd. Temps in Beaumont continue to fall. Even at the 10:00 hour. Woke up 34.3 and now we just dipped to 31.9.

[srainhoutx]

Right on cue, the 12Z GFS drops a significant cold surge very far S as a storm takes shape over TX...

01222011 12Z gfs_ten_264l.gif

01222011 12Z gfs_ten_276l.gif

01222011 12Z gfs_ten_288l.gif

[Kludge]

Seems the SE TX groundhog may need to wear ski boots when he comes out to check for a shadow. I believe this warrants a new topic title, maybe?

[harpman]

Too bad it's so far out!

[srainhoutx]

Goodness gracious...

[ThunderMan]

That would be awesome

[srainhoutx]

I was very busy earlier and forgot to post the Western Pacific Winter RECON data was ingested into the 12Z output...

Fri Jan 21 14:52:16 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 211451
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1350Z FRI JAN 21 2011
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..
15 DROPSONDES IN THE WRN PACIFIC WERE AVAILABLE FOR 12Z GFS INGEST
IN SUPPORT OF WSR..
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[wxman57]

Yeah, 12Z GFS doesn't have us in the lower teens on the 2nd, but now it has us under 6" or more of snow. Doesn't look like 80 degrees that week to me, regardless.

[tireman4]

Yeah, 12Z GFS doesn't have us in the lower teens on the 2nd, but now it has us under 6" or more of snow. Doesn't look like 80 degrees that week to me, regardless.

Yeah it does. It is called thermostat in your house....Tee hee......LOL

[tireman4]

I was very busy earlier and forgot to post the Western Pacific Winter RECON data was ingested into the 12Z output...

Fri Jan 21 14:52:16 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 211451
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1350Z FRI JAN 21 2011
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..
15 DROPSONDES IN THE WRN PACIFIC WERE AVAILABLE FOR 12Z GFS INGEST
IN SUPPORT OF WSR..
$$


SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

So to Wxman57 and others<

The input into the models. Is this a really good thing? What I mean is, does this make the model runs even more believable?

[srainhoutx]

It lends credence to what the GFS has been suggesting since Tuesday. With that additional Upper Air data in a data sparse region of the Pacific, the support tends to grow at this time. I suspect there will be future Winter RECON missions as well in the days ahead. A storm this significant, if it occurs, would have far reaching impacts across the Nation.

[TexasBreeze]

Here we go again! But in reality it will dissappear in the next runs in at most a day or two and we'll see what we have been seeing recently...

[ronyan]

Here we go again! But in reality it will dissappear in the next runs in at most a day or two and we'll see what we have been seeing recently...

Well it probably will but these events can happen.

[TexasBreeze]

Maybe 2004 12/24 again?
I'm ready for the next 70+ degree day like Wxman57 is!

[tireman4]

Here we go again! But in reality it will dissappear in the next runs in at most a day or two and we'll see what we have been seeing recently...

Never ever say never:

Blizzard of 1895...Houston...20 inches:

http://bayoucityhistory.blogspot.com/20 ... wfall.html

[ticka1]

Whether it happens or not - at least its fun to talk about even with the heat miser himself! I'll send you an extra snuggie wxman57 if this comes to fruitation.

[tireman4]

I must say.. to have something (Summer or Winter event) give Wxman57 pause is something....

[redneckweather]

Are y'all actually getting excited about something that is 2 weeks out? Tis tis tis!!!

It's neat to see the possibilities though.