January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[TexasMetBlake]

The terrorists kids that live across the street left the sprinkler system running all night long and now their parents yard looks like a winter wonderland over there. I wish they'd move. They are incredibly destructive.

[srainhoutx]

I'm liking the trend on this 6Z GFS meteogram. Let's see, if I extrapolate it out beyond 192hrs, I see 80s by the 22nd and 90s by February!

The 00Z was even warmer. 240 hour 06Z was a flip back West though with the colder air. Get up to the Red River and build that Arctic Barrier, wxman57.

[Andrew]

I'm liking the trend on this 6Z GFS meteogram. Let's see, if I extrapolate it out beyond 192hrs, I see 80s by the 22nd and 90s by February!

The 00Z was even warmer. 240 hours 06Z was a flip back West though with the colder air. Get up to the Red River and build that Arctic Barrier, wxman57.

How would one even build the barrier? By installing a bunch of blow-dryers?

Anyway I'm at a modest 28-29 for my low

[ticka1]

I had 25 at the house this morning. It was brrrrrrrrr. No 80's or 90's allowed until after Easter.

[djmike]

25 this morning in the Beaumont area! Brrr

[ronyan]

31 here in Clute, NWS forecast of 25 busted pretty bad.

[srainhoutx]

Clouds are moving in from our SW. HGX states via the Aviation Update that the models are not handling the situation regarding cold cover very well at all. Some of those high temps forecasted today may well be in jeopardy as well as the lows forecasted for tonight. We will see...

[wxman57]

Yeah, if the clouds move over Houston by this evening then we won't even freeze tonight. Don't understand why the NWS is going cloudy and mid 20s tonight. That's not going to happen.

[hlewis]

am wondering, any possibility these clouds will drop some precipitation that could likely turn into anything?? anything at all!! lol

[redneckweather]

I'm wearing shorts today. Yawwwwwwwn.

And no, no precip tonight and next week is looking warmer with no arctic air surge. This is our coldest stretch of the winter folks so enjoy it!

Oh and this is not a forecast, just my opinion. I sure hope we have a good stormy spring but I'm not holding my breathe.

[ronyan]

Well it's definitely looking colder in Canada this morning.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... ature.html

[Portastorm]

Temps holding between 30-32 in the AUS metro area with thick cloud cover. Hard to imagine us reaching the forecasted high of 40 degrees if this continues.

My hopes of light flurries or freezing drizzle today spurred by any passing shortwave appear unlikely as the surface layer is bone dry with a dew point of 14 degrees.

[Paul]

NWS did bust....CAA was not there to bottom out.....think I said that a few pages back....

[djmike]

If "anything" as in frozen precip were to fall from the sky, around what time should this take place in the HOU area? Just curious... I know it will be difficult with it being so dry though.

[biggerbyte]

Sure am anxious for Sunday to get here so we can look at next week. If we do not get another push of cold air, we could be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Very mild, indeed. Time is flying, guys. Those spring storms are getting impatient. Lol

[Mr. Weather]

really hoping that se houston area will see some flurries tonight maybe in the morning that a way we atleast got something this winter

[biggerbyte]

Fox 26 is mentioning snow flurries for tonight and tomorrow. He did not make a big deal of it, meaning that it would be, in his opinion, just a smattering.

[vci_guy2003]

Clouds and mid 20s for tonight, that's just plain WRONG. I just don't get it.

[wxman57]

Clouds and mid 20s for tonight, that's just plain WRONG. I just don't get it.

You are correct. Overcast = mid (or upper) 30s, not 20s. It's very hard for our area to drop below freezing with an overcast sky.

[wxman57]

If "anything" as in frozen precip were to fall from the sky, around what time should this take place in the HOU area? Just curious... I know it will be difficult with it being so dry though.

RUC and GFS Models indicate thickest clouds (most moisture aloft) between 11PM and 6AM. Note that it is possible that radar could pick up some precip echoes way aloft in the clouds. This precip could sublimate (dry up) before reaching the ground. So even if the radar shows something, it doesn't mean that "something" is reaching the ground.

Bottom line - just get a good night's sleep. Odds of seeing a stray snowflake are remote.