January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman57]

Ouch again...

What are we looking at here?

Just a little cold air up in Canada, with implications that it might move south (by srain). I'll be installing a cold air barricade along the Red River to prevent any future intrusions of Arctic air.

[srainhoutx]

Let's see how things unfold. With that said, MJO is passing through 7-8 which suggests drying in Indonesia and translates more tropical forcing to near the dateline which suggests more W Coast Ridging. Add to the mix a disturbed stratosphere which argues the AO would tend to remain neutral/negative which allows a cross polar flow to remain entrenched. All in all the trends via Operational and ensembles suggest that a major warm up is not in the offing and in fact could lead to a sizeable dump of all that Arctic Air building in Canada into the Lower 48. We shall see. But all the dynamics at work on a global scale certainly raise an eyebrow and will be worth watching in the days ahead. Our current air mass is part of the beginning of that equation, IMO. How did I do, wxman57?

[wxman57]

Let's see how things unfold. With that said, MJO is passing through 7-8 which suggests drying in Indonesia and translates more tropical forcing to near the dateline which suggests more W Coast Ridging. Add to the mix a disturbed stratosphere which argues the AO would tend to remain neutral/negative which allows a cross polar flow to remain entrenched. All in all the trends via Operational and ensembles suggest that a major warm up is not in the offing and in fact could lead to a sizeable dump of all that Arctic Air building in Canada into the Lower 48. We shall see. But all the dynamics at work on a global scale certainly raise an eyebrow and will be worth watching in the days ahead. Our current air mass is part of the beginning of that equation, IMO. How did I do, wxman57?

You sound like one of the "cold-mongerers" here at the office. I'm already freezing to death.

[srainhoutx]

You sound like one of the "cold-mongerers" here at the office. I'm already freezing to death.

It will be tropical season soon enough.

[Portastorm]

Snippets of interest concerning the longer range (beyond 6-7 days) from various Texas-based NWSFOs through their afternoon forecast discussions:

Austin/San Antonio

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRAZING THE AREA NEXT TUE-THU. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN...CLIMATOLOGY...AND SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN STATES. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GFS MOS TEMPS
5-10F FOR NEXT TUE...AND MAY DO THE SAME FOR FOLLOWING PERIODS
WHEN THEY GET WITHIN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST WINDOW.

Amarillo

IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE DEPICTING
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

[Ptarmigan]

You still have that bet with your friend if IAH hits 25?

Yep. I'll be spending the night up at IAH with a hair dryer by the instrument shelter.

There are no outlets nearby for a hair dryer as they are they are really power intensive.

[Ptarmigan]

Easter, this year, is on the 24th of April, just so you know. I do not know about any of you but I sure do not want any freezes during the month of April.

It can get cold in late April. Not freezing, but cold nonetheless.

[srainhoutx]

Oh my...

[weatherguy425]

From NWS Bismarck...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN DROP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH A
TREND HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MORE
TO OUR NORTH...MORNING LOWS STILL LOOK TO BE FRIGID SAT MORNING AND
ON DROPPING TO NEAR 25 BELOW OVER SOME AREAS.

Not sure what they're lookin' at!

[Andrew]

Oh my...

Like I said here we go again. It could very well be the stepping down process that we see so many times but being 10+ days out it can only be speculation and as you have been saying we just have to look for trends in the patterns. Should be fun to track either way.

[biggerbyte]

We will get a short break towards the weekend. All hands on deck for next week though. More on that on Sunday. Very cold again, it could be.

Edit to add that, when I say break, I don't mean warm. Warmer than it is now. Andrew made a good point about stepping down, which is exactly what we are doing.

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

FIELD  TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT       PRECIPITATION 
LEVEL      2M             2M                  
UNITS      DEGC            DEGC          MM   
 HR
+  0.     19.3           16.8           1.51
+ 12.     18.6           18.2           1.02
+ 24.     21.1           19.5           1.65
+ 36.     19.9           19.7           1.68
+ 48.      1.4           -1.4           4.33
+ 60.     -5.5          -13.0           0.36
+ 72.     -2.2          -19.1           0.17
+ 84.     -5.1          -14.6           0.08
+ 96.      0.9          -16.3           0.20
+108.     -1.9           -8.9           0.12
+120.      6.3           -1.0           0.14
+132.      5.4            4.3           0.15
+144.     10.4            6.7           0.31
+156.     10.1            8.4           0.29
+168.     13.5           11.7           2.13
+180.     10.0            9.6           2.59
+192.     15.3           12.3           0.58

The 16 day GFS model has another freeze next week and mixed with rain, possibly snow. I know it is weeks into the future.

[Mr. T]

Another January, another hard freeze. At the 6 pm hour, 43 at the big airport with upper 30s to the north. NWS going with 25 at IAH and obviously colder for surrounding areas.

I can't wait until this weekend. I hope the low 70s forecasted by the GFS verify. I'm not really a fan of this cold stuff...

[helloitsb]

Oh my...

Like I said here we go again. It could very well be the stepping down process that we see so many times but being 10+ days out it can only be speculation and as you have been saying we just have to look for trends in the patterns. Should be fun to track either way.

yup! the storm 10 days away that never shows up or is downgraded tremendously

[djmike]

Wow...according to my weather station at my home, temp was 48 here in Beaumont at 445p and it has dropped to 39 already at 619p....yup, temps will be diving tonight!

[srainhoutx]

Another January, another hard freeze. At the 6 pm hour, 43 at the big airport with upper 30s to the north. NWS going with 25 at IAH and obviously colder for surrounding areas.

I can't wait until this weekend. I hope the low 70s forecasted by the GFS verify. I'm not really a fan of this cold stuff...

Believe or not, neither am I. My antifreeze protection on the pool will likely ‘kick in’ tonight. 39 and dropping in NW Harris County at this time. With that said, it’s the only weather we’ve got. So we’ll talk about it.

[srainhoutx]

Our short wave is moving onshore along the CA Coast. There are 'hints' some light qpf could spit out across Central TX and the Hill Country. We shall see.

[Baseballdude2915]

40.9 here in central Galveston county. Was 44 just after sunset.
Should break my season record of 29.9 for this winter.

The 18z has us on a roller coaster for the rest of the month. Geez.

[Andrew]

Another January, another hard freeze. At the 6 pm hour, 43 at the big airport with upper 30s to the north. NWS going with 25 at IAH and obviously colder for surrounding areas.

I can't wait until this weekend. I hope the low 70s forecasted by the GFS verify. I'm not really a fan of this cold stuff...

Believe or not, neither am I. My antifreeze protection on the pool will likely ‘kick in’ tonight. 39 and dropping in NW Harris County at this time. With that said, it’s the only weather we’ve got. So we’ll talk about it.

I think Joe Bastardi would agree.

[srainhoutx]

00Z NAM suggests some light wintry precip across Central TX.