January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

Folks, things are going to be popping rather fast the next couple of days. Dallas/Ft Worth just issued this SWS...this is a very changeable forecast ahead...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
743 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-072130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
743 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY...

...COLD WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...


AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND AREA WIDE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF I-20. THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE
NORTH OF A JACKSBORO TO EMORY LINE...WHERE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW OCCURS AND HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
THE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF
A JACKSBORO TO EMORY LINE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT.

[losmabies]

So I am one of the silent observers and have been for several days of this forum.

Is it a pretty safe bet that the Spring/Woodlands area will NOT see any winter precipitation over the next week or so?

I appreciate all of the insight that has been given the last couple of days on this board and I look forward to learning a lot more.

[wxman57]

So I am one of the silent observers and have been for several days of this forum.

Is it a pretty safe bet that the Spring/Woodlands area will NOT see any winter precipitation over the next week or so?

I appreciate all of the insight that has been given the last couple of days on this board and I look forward to learning a lot more.

Welcome to the board, losmabies. Yes, it's a safe bet we won't be dealing with any winter precip in our area this weekend or next week.

[sleetstorm]

Unless something unanticipated transpires. How much further south would that wave of low pressure have to move to allow all of southeast Texas a good opportunity at getting frozen precipitation?

[srainhoutx]

FYI: the 12Z NAM is running and is further S with the Upper Low and it appears to have shifted that wintry weather we saw on the HPC Winter Weather Charts a bit S and a bit E for those in N TX.

[wxman57]

Based on the cold air in place ahead of the low (or lack of it farther south), I think the NAM is too far south with the band of snow. My may has it starting near Tyler and stretching across southern AR (north of Shreveport) to northern MS/AL/GA. About 100-150 miles north of the NAM's snow belt across the SE.

[wxman57]

Unless something unanticipated transpires. How much further south would that wave of low pressure have to move to allow all of southeast Texas a good opportunity at getting frozen precipitation?

The cold air would have to be about another 150-200 miles farther south.

[randybpt]

Srain..I love your enthusiasm and do a great job with keeping the board up to date. But with the temps in na canada we will not see any wintry precip in se texas. Lows in the 30 s and highs in 40s. Not much snow pack to our north so what arctic air is there will modify now with that said if and that's a big if the models are sniffing out another surge late next week guess we.could have a stepping down pattern. But I would like to see cold up in canada first.

[Portastorm]

Srain..I love your enthusiasm and do a great job with keeping the board up to date. But with the temps in na canada we will not see any wintry precip in se texas. Lows in the 30 s and highs in 40s. Not much snow pack to our north so what arctic air is there will modify now with that said if and that's a big if the models are sniffing out another surge late next week guess we.could have a stepping down pattern. But I would like to see cold up in canada first.

I don't think srain every said it would snow in SE Texas. He merely has been espousing a pattern change from what we saw in December and that has verified with last week's rain event and what we will see this weekend. As for snowpack, let's see how that snowpack looks by Sunday night. I suspect it will be much more prominent and will help keep whatever Arctic air that comes down into Texas chilly enough. Are we going to have something historic? No. That chatter was based on several model runs a few days ago. But there can't be much denying that we will see temps some 15-20 degrees below normal.

[Mr. Weather]

so its not looking good for any winter precipitation for the SE Houston area huh

[redneckweather]

so its not looking good for any winter precipitation for the SE Houston area huh

No it's not and it never has been IMO. We could keep one eye open Wednesday night into Thursday morning when some moisture MIGHT be available but that more than likely won't happen either.

[snowman65]

How severe does the rain/wind, etc look for the golden triangle this weekend?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a possible wintry weather event in N and NE TX/AR/N LA. That models also suggests a possible stormy Sunday across TX into LA with a possible MCS.

[ticka1]

I think the GFS plays cruel tricks on us - playing the 10 days out fantasy game and then for 10 days we all wishcast-beg- pray for snow. When that 10 days gets here - it throws us into another 10 sphere. For what its worth - it will be a good weekend to stay indoors - read a book or watch tv - which is what I like about Tx winter's.

[snowman65]

I think the GFS plays cruel tricks on us - playing the 10 days out fantasy game and then for 10 days we all wishcast-beg- pray for snow. When that 10 days gets here - it throws us into another 10 sphere. For what its worth - it will be a good weekend to stay indoors - read a book or watch tv - which is what I like about Tx winter's.

Good thing it's NFL playoff weekend!!!

[tireman4]

As Srain has mentioned, HPC hinted this may be a stepping down in temperatures. Winter is not over folks. We are in the middle of a 9 inning game.

[Andrew]

12z came in a good bit warmer.

[redneckweather]

Hmmm, it looks like the Tyler area might get some accumulating snow? If so, is this Sunday morning or Sunday evening and how much? It's only a 3+ hr. drive. If I want to see snow during the winter, it won't happen sitting at home.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm, it looks like the Tyler area might get some accumulating snow? If so, is this Sunday morning or Sunday evening and how much? It's only a 3+ hr. drive. If I want to see snow during the winter, it won't happen sitting at home.

NE TX still looks like a sweet spot.

[redneckweather]

Concerning the 12z. If I'm looking at things right, cold air should already be building into northwestern Canada right now which isn't happening.


Whereabouts in NE TX srain?