January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[TexasMetBlake]

You know, I'm just really torn here. I told Steve earlier on the phone that it's a very difficult forecast. As I told him, even with the big pressures in Canada, I don't think this is going to be a severe freeze here any more. I think we are looking at a prolonged period of upper 30s and low 40s for highs with temps in the mid to upper 20s. It will feel even worse with a stiff north wind. But since it has been in the 70s and to some extent, the 80s, we are in for a rude awakening. Perception is what it's all about.

As Wxman has said earlier, the numbers under the "H" mean little if the 1060 or 1070 high stays in Northern Canada. While most arctic air is shallow, and the 'pressure' doesn't have to be high to get cold here, I still don't think that the upper-levels are ideal for significant cold to spill south. The cold air builds but doesn't move. I suppose the take home message is that me may get a freeze but the severe cold temps that were depicted earlier in the week (mid teens) are out the window (for now) and highs below freezing also look much less likely.

Let there be NO MISTAKE that things are about to get SHARPLY colder around here. However, if you are looking for an '83 or '89 type event, it appears the wait continues.

[sleetstorm]

Noticed the 1060 (next weekends potential issue), but former model runs were showing near -5C over the houston area. Though theres definetly a gradual biulding of hieghts from texas alllllll the way up to the north pole, which I guess would suggest a pattern favoring reinforcing shots of cold air?

Yea the reinforcing potential is def there in this run. A lot stronger for the ridge and the heights for the 850mb MSLP is showing greater heights farther south which SHOULD indicate better cooling down here. Also contour lines look better for getting the cold air down here. It also sticks around longer.



Also the pacific might not cut off the fun as fast as some of the previous runs.

I pray that does come to fruition knowing that I am fan of cold weather as long as I am thoroughly prepared for it.

[Andrew]

Except that the High starts to weaken reapidly, though 7+ days out the specifics dont matter as much and weakening it to wuickly is a typical model error i guess.

Yea I was thinking the same. It is probably just a little to far out to trust the models for the reinforcing shot and the rapid weakening of the heights.

[weatherguy425]

Orrr as candy cane just said... maybe the hieghts born and die up in northern canada?

[Mr. Weather]

what do u think about this website is it worth trusting i have checked it a couple of times today first it said it was going to snow in Houston now its saying its not ????


http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_ ... tric=false

[Andrew]

00z

[Andrew]

what do u think about this website is it worth trusting i have checked it a couple of times today first it said it was going to snow in Houston now its saying its not ????


http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_ ... tric=false

15 day forecasts are taken directly from the models with little to no forecaster involvement.

[weatherguy425]

Not that surface plots can be taken literally, but that's definetly a warmer run.

[Andrew]

Not that surface plots can be taken literally, but that's definetly a warmer run.

lows are lower highs are higher. Overall though not much change.

[TexasMetBlake]

Like I said, the higher pressures really mean diddle-dee. It's all about the surface, baby. For the first time today, I didn't look at a single model run. I just don't think it's an 'event' anymore, personally.

[weatherguy425]

true. It'll just be nice to have an extended period of chilly weather. Though the 0z GFS even tries to take the duratio naway from us

[Andrew]

Like I said, the higher pressures really mean diddle-dee. It's all about the surface, baby. For the first time today, I didn't look at a single model run. I just don't think it's an 'event' anymore, personally.

Idk still being 6 days out I don't think the gfs has a good grasp of the situation.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well, I don't know. Okay, off to the gym. Dallas by morning! Going to watch Texas A&M beat up on LSU tomorrow night in Arlington. GIG'EM AGGIES!!!!

[Paul]

0z really didnt flip tonight like I thought it would. The source region is not all that impressive right now either....have to wait until the weekend to get a good look at it.

its quite the spread with the CMC showing a Mother of all Highs at 1070H to the GFS showing a 1060H... Hard to pin down temps for next week unless you are a GFS hugger...

[Andrew]

CLEAR *zaaap* we're loosing it. The board is flat-lining. Nooooooo.

[vci_guy2003]

We won't make it to 100 pages lol

[ejburas]

I think I can...I think I can...

[wxman666]

Maybe this will help. I'm sure with new updates coming out from SPC tonight, I will make quite a nightly contribution.

[wxman666]

Ooops...speak of the devil...it's 12 AM. Checking SPC.

[wxman666]

Day 2 Convective Outlook Storm Prediction Center:



"SEE TEXT"

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR A MODEST INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY RETURN INLAND THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...AS FAR NORTH AS SAN
ANTONIO INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INHIBITION MAY SLOW
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE
TILT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER 09/06Z...WITH A 50-70+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION. ASSOCIATED FORCING AND STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY.
IT ALSO MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...IF THIS OCCURS...WIND
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.