January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[redneckweather]

I see a 1052mb high in the northwestern territories @ hr84.

[weatherguy425]

hahah the lines are too close for m yeyes! cant read!

[weatherguy425]

-10 isotherm approachng Texas panhandle. 1050+ high sliding down rockies.

[Andrew]

-10 isotherm approachng Texas panhandle. 1050+ high sliding down rockies.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102s.gif

Yea maybe a little stronger but nothing too different from the 18z.

[Andrew]

120

[weatherguy425]

Actually seems quite a bit weaker, but notcing the 1050 mb up in towards the Pole

[weatherguy425]

1052 over utah/colorado at hr 130 but 0 isotherm just south of houston/ seems a little wierd.

[Andrew]

Nevermind 1060mb! Stronger it is wow....

[redneckweather]

Looks plenty cold to me!

Edit. It looks like we were commenting on the same thing Andrew.

[Andrew]

Actually seems quite a bit weaker, but notcing the 1050 mb up in towards the Pole

Actually a good bit stronger then 18z. Check 1040mb heights are a lot farther south with the 0 line skirting the coast. Also 1060 up north.

[redneckweather]

Yep, that some serious cold stretching from the northwestern territories of Canada all the way into Texas @ hr138! Where is our boy srain?

[weatherguy425]

Noticed the 1060 (next weekends potential issue), but former model runs were showing near -5C over the houston area. Though theres definetly a gradual biulding of hieghts from texas alllllll the way up to the north pole, which I guess would suggest a pattern favoring reinforcing shots of cold air?

[sleetstorm]

Does anyone know if the wave of low pressure is still treking further south than what is was predicted to, or has is since treked more north? I think that srainhoutx stated that if it traveled further south the southern half of Texas, including southeast Texas would have a better opportunity to receive sleet/snow. Please rectify me if I am mistaken, srainhoutx?

[redneckweather]

It looks like that 1060mb high is just sitting there building between hr 138 and 162.

[Andrew]

Noticed the 1060 (next weekends potential issue), but former model runs were showing near -5C over the houston area. Though theres definetly a gradual biulding of hieghts from texas alllllll the way up to the north pole, which I guess would suggest a pattern favoring reinforcing shots of cold air?

Yea the reinforcing potential is def there in this run. A lot stronger for the ridge and the heights for the 850mb MSLP is showing greater heights farther south which SHOULD indicate better cooling down here. Also contour lines look better for getting the cold air down here. It also sticks around longer.



Also the pacific might not cut off the fun as fast as some of the previous runs.

[Andrew]

Yep, that some serious cold stretching from the northwestern territories of Canada all the way into Texas @ hr138! Where is our boy srain?

Hey went to bed. *cough* getting old *cough*

[Mr. Weather]

1052 over utah/colorado at hr 130 but 0 isotherm just south of houston/ seems a little wierd.

what does this mean for Houston 0 isotherm just south of Houston ?

[Andrew]

00z is looking a lot better for some stepping down action:

[weatherguy425]

Except that the High starts to weaken reapidly, though 7+ days out the specifics dont matter as much and weakening it to wuickly is a typical model error i guess.

[Andrew]

1052 over utah/colorado at hr 130 but 0 isotherm just south of houston/ seems a little wierd.

what does this mean for Houston 0 isotherm just south of Houston ?

I agree with weatherguy it is weird and has been for the last couple of runs to only have the 0 isotherm line just south of houston with those heights. That is why I haven't been trusting the GFS AS much as I have in the past.


Mr. Weather this means that we get freezing temps (if this is at the surface. If it is at the 850mb heights then that is not necessarily the case.)