January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

Coastal low much stronger through 90 hours. Heavy rains/storms Saturday into Sunday from S TX up the Coast. E and NE winds, N of the rain in N and Central TX. MCS looks possible.

Awesome! Anxiously awaiting the midnight update from the SPC.

[TexasMetBlake]

Yes...coastal low a lot stronger but the high is about 5-7 mb weaker and doesn't, at least right now (102 hrs) appear to be as cold as the 18z but it's really splitting hairs. 850 temps look about the same overall. I have noticed that the 00z gfs is slower with the coastal low.

[redneckweather]

I'm seeing a 1052 in NW Canada @ hr114. What was it on the last run?

[srainhoutx]

1051mb high in Western Canada. Wintry weather (light) along the I-40 corridor from the TX Panhandle to NC. Front is heading S and offshore of TX Coast at 120.

[srainhoutx]

I'm seeing a 1052 in NW Canada @ hr114. What was it on the last run?

1054mb @ 120 on the 18Z, but over the Pole on that run.

[TexasMetBlake]

At 144 hrs, the 00z is 'warmer' by a little bit but the cold air appears to be on the move much quicker. A 1041 is sliding down the lee of the Rockies.

[srainhoutx]

Strong ridge over AK. 1051mb...500/300 charts looking good as cross polar flow is established.

[TexasMetBlake]

00z is 'okay' but nothing earth shattering. Oh well. Mr. Euro....bring me joy.

[srainhoutx]

1052mb high in NW Territories. NW Pacific storm heading onshore. 0 degree 850's offshore TX Coast @ 162. -10 degree 850's Central TX.

[Andrew]

Interesting to see the 850 cold temps move east but the 10m temps stick around

[srainhoutx]

1050mb high NW Territories. Light precip breaks out along Coastal TX and inland. 0 degree 850's just N of Houston. Mixing issues perhaps @ 180.

[randybpt]

So what does all that translate into temps. For next week.

[txsnowmaker]

I for one am starting to move toward wxman57's view that a historic outbreak in our area next week is looking increasingly less likely. Then again, like he also said, we can't really know for sure until we see how cold the air actually gets in Canada in a few days.

[Andrew]

So what does all that translate into temps. For next week.

Little freezing but good setup still so temps are prob to high

Here is the temps for the first 192h in Celsius. (second column)

Code: Select all

FIELD  TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT      
LEVEL      2M             2M   
UNITS      DEGC            DEGC
 HR
+  0.     14.1            9.0
+  3.     11.2            6.2
+  6.      9.3            4.8
+  9.      7.8            3.7
+ 12.      6.3            3.2
+ 15.      8.8            3.7
+ 18.     15.1            4.6
+ 21.     16.9            3.7
+ 24.     11.4            4.0
+ 27.      9.4            3.6
+ 30.      8.4            2.9
+ 33.      7.7            2.1
+ 36.      6.7            1.2
+ 39.     10.1            2.2
+ 42.     17.0            4.4
+ 45.     19.0            4.9
+ 48.     11.6            5.4
+ 51.     10.8            5.7
+ 54.      8.9            5.4
+ 57.      8.5            4.4
+ 60.      8.0            3.6
+ 63.     10.3            4.4
+ 66.     16.2            6.7
+ 69.     17.5            7.7
+ 72.     13.6            9.2
+ 75.     11.8            9.8
+ 78.     10.1            9.2
+ 81.      9.0            8.6
+ 84.      7.4            6.9
+ 87.      5.2            4.5
+ 90.      7.8            6.2
+ 93.      7.4            6.0
+ 96.      4.6            3.7
+ 99.      3.1            2.1
+102.      2.8            1.4
+105.      2.6            1.4
+108.      2.1            1.2
+111.      2.8            0.9
+114.      5.1            2.1
+117.      6.0            2.6
+120.      4.9            2.7
+123.      4.6            2.5
+126.      3.2            1.9
+129.      1.1           -0.3
+132.     -0.6           -2.1
+135.      0.8           -3.0
+138.      5.1           -1.8
+141.      6.9           -0.5
+144.      2.9           -0.5
+147.      1.0           -1.4
+150.     -0.0           -3.3
+153.     -0.3           -5.9
+156.     -1.1           -6.8
+159.     -0.8           -7.2
+162.      1.7           -7.0
+165.      3.2           -6.1
+168.      2.8           -4.6
+171.      2.5           -3.1
+174.      2.1           -1.4
+177.      1.5           -0.6
+180.      0.9           -0.4
+183.      1.2            0.0
+186.      3.7            2.0
+189.      6.1            4.2
+192.      4.6            4.1

[srainhoutx]

So what does all that translate into temps. For next week.

Best guess would suggests low to mid 20's for lows. Perhaps higher with cloud cover. Big issue I see is the Pacific NW storm. It would take a monster storm to break down the N/NW flow/ridging and this feature doesn't appear that strong. Warming temps by next Saturday in response to the storm now in the Plains. I've seen enough. Good night folks. It looks like a long several days ahead. Great to see everyone being active around here. Have Fun...

Oh, and a nice snow event in the longer range.

[Andrew]

So who is staying up for the Euro?

[TexasMetBlake]

Not me. Bahumbug. Night. lol

[srainhoutx]

One last post and off to bed. The Canadian is a bit stronger: 1066mb (was 1065mb on the 12Z) in NW Territories. Front well S of Veracruz, MX yet again. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least an equal run of the Euro later on.

[Andrew]

One last post and off to bed. The Canadian is a bit stronger: 1066mb (was 1065mb on the 12Z) in NW Territories. Front well S of Veracruz, MX yet again. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least an equal run of the Euro later on.

I have a feeling I will see you back here when the Euro comes out ..... or not

[ejburas]

Either you will see him...or you won't, lol. I'm going to try to stay up for the Euro.