January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Andrew]

Doesn't a strong high naturally weaken as it slides closer to the equator?

As a high moves south it will weaken.

[ronyan]

Doesn't a strong high naturally weaken as it slides closer to the equator?

As a high moves south it will weaken.

Well I ask that because in that comparison between the 12z and 18z that you posted the high is quite a bit further south on the 18z. I didn't see the whole model run though.

[Andrew]

Doesn't a strong high naturally weaken as it slides closer to the equator?

As a high moves south it will weaken.

Well I ask that because in that comparison between the 12z and 18z that you posted the high is quite a bit further south on the 18z. I didn't see the whole model run though.

Well that is because i posted different time stamps. If you see the whole run the 12z moves pretty far south.

[Paul]

btw Gene Norman mentioned something on the 5:00 show but saying a chance of sleet mixing in with rain, under promise over deliver? or not much confidence in this whole thing.

You should never have too much confidence in a long range forecast, especially if you're predicting wintry stuff in our area. He did say that it would be "cold cold air" though.

very true it is still 10 days out until the models are predicting this thing

true...but the signs are there from every global model I have seen and in consecutive runs.....cannot be denied even at 10 days IMO...

in regards to Gene he is quite conservative but the point of him making a statement like that a week away is eye opening, IMO...

[wxman57]

Still quite a long ways off, but it IS looking interesting. I see a good chance of an Arctic air push south into Texas around the 12th. Big question is will there be any type of disturbance to move across Texas while the cold air is in place? I wouldn't put too much stock in a single GFS run, or even multiple runs that far out. We've seen that the models can't predict such smaller-scale features even 2-3 days out, much less 12-13 days out.

Bottom line is my nice, warm sunny January may be in jeopardy.

[srainhoutx]

Still quite a long ways off, but it IS looking interesting. I see a good chance of an Arctic air push south into Texas around the 12th. Big question is will there be any type of disturbance to move across Texas while the cold air is in place? I wouldn't put too much stock in a single GFS run, or even multiple runs that far out. We've seen that the models can't predict such smaller-scale features even 2-3 days out, much less 12-13 days out.

Bottom line is my nice, warm sunny January may be in jeopardy.

I bet you had a busy day.

[brazoria121]

Still quite a long ways off, but it IS looking interesting. I see a good chance of an Arctic air push south into Texas around the 12th. Big question is will there be any type of disturbance to move across Texas while the cold air is in place? I wouldn't put too much stock in a single GFS run, or even multiple runs that far out. We've seen that the models can't predict such smaller-scale features even 2-3 days out, much less 12-13 days out.

Bottom line is my nice, warm sunny January may be in jeopardy.

yes!!!!! hes come abored!! lol

[Mr. T]

Hey Candy Cane do you think the GFS is also having trouble with the cold air making it this far south. The past runs show a very strong ridge but the cold air has trouble making it this far south. I would think that with a 1048 or 1066 high the cold air would be pushed much farther south than being shown.

It's the GFS after the model truncates and becomes low res. I don't care what it shows on the surface. It still has a very favorable upper air pattern like the euro, and that's all that matters to me at this stage

[tireman4]

Still quite a long ways off, but it IS looking interesting. I see a good chance of an Arctic air push south into Texas around the 12th. Big question is will there be any type of disturbance to move across Texas while the cold air is in place? I wouldn't put too much stock in a single GFS run, or even multiple runs that far out. We've seen that the models can't predict such smaller-scale features even 2-3 days out, much less 12-13 days out.

Bottom line is my nice, warm sunny January may be in jeopardy.

I thought you fainted after seeing some of the Euro runs.....LOL

[wxman57]

Still quite a long ways off, but it IS looking interesting. I see a good chance of an Arctic air push south into Texas around the 12th. Big question is will there be any type of disturbance to move across Texas while the cold air is in place? I wouldn't put too much stock in a single GFS run, or even multiple runs that far out. We've seen that the models can't predict such smaller-scale features even 2-3 days out, much less 12-13 days out.

Bottom line is my nice, warm sunny January may be in jeopardy.

I bet you had a busy day.

Actually, today was my last day of my 2-week Christmas vacation. Spent it at the American Shooting Center in west Houston taking an all-day trap shooting class taught by our long-time client Gil (& Vicki) Ash. Had lots of fun. I hadn't shot a gun in 30 years. Hit about 70% of targets including all doubles (two targets sent up simultaneously). Big bruise on my shoulder now. Our company signed up 2 teams for a trap shooting tournament on March 5th.

Back to work tomorrow. It does look like we'll be busy in the coming weeks. Hopefully we DO get some interesting (read wintry precip) weather, as it's good for business.

[Ptarmigan]

Still quite a long ways off, but it IS looking interesting. I see a good chance of an Arctic air push south into Texas around the 12th. Big question is will there be any type of disturbance to move across Texas while the cold air is in place? I wouldn't put too much stock in a single GFS run, or even multiple runs that far out. We've seen that the models can't predict such smaller-scale features even 2-3 days out, much less 12-13 days out.

Bottom line is my nice, warm sunny January may be in jeopardy.

That is fine with me. Anyways, it is winter. We can hold off the warm and sunny weather till spring. Well, I don't mind nice, cold sunny January because night time is a good time to starwatch with the telescope. Until, I am enjoying the cold weather.

[ThunderMan]

My saying: I Give you your 9 months of "too damn hot" weather, give me my 3 months of winter!

[biggerbyte]

Hmmm!!! Do you think I could get on YouTube, and get a doll made after me if I go around town saying, "This weather is too damn hot"?

Lol

[srainhoutx]

While we wait on the 00Z suite, let’s not forget we have some wet weather ahead. The weekend looks very damp, IMO.

[sambucol]

If the cold air arrives here Monday and is pipe-busting weather, I guess it wouldn't be a bad idea to get our homes prepared before the rain sets in over the weekend.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting pattern ahead...

Where did you get that shaded ECMWF model?

[redneckweather]

My prediction? Well I think models will start trending away from the big hyped up euro run from earlier and we will end up with a day or two (might be stretching it) with temps at or below freezing....say 36 to 48 hours?

[Andrew]

Looks like I am going to get little sleep over the next couple of weeks. Getting the energy drinks ready. Glad to see Wxman is coming along. Thanks Tyler for answering my question.

[srainhoutx]

A bit different view tonight via the 00Z. Have fun night crew. Good to see our folks active...

[ticka1]

A bit different view tonight via the 00Z. Have fun night crew. Good to see our folks active...

Srainhoutx - that's not nice - leaving us non-model mapreaders without a short explanation what its showing!! Can other jump in and give me a brief on what its showing.....