January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Paul]

12z Canadian.....? anyone.....I am at work so I am limited.....I saw last nights 0z run and it followed the GFS and EURO....just wondering if its still on board....

[biggerbyte]

remember that guy who said "East Texas pine trees would stop cold air intrusions"....dont know why I thought about that....

What??? That is a joke.. Right????? Lol
I don't remember who said it, but a few names do come to mind. I also only remeber one person who said Ike would not come here, but rather follow Rita, based on this gut feeling. Lol

Wow!! Such memories. We all do try. Salute to Dan and all those fun times.

[ronyan]

Hey guys, a lurker is coming in. Looks like a very cold period in the works! As a big fan of cold, I'm hoping things stay consistent with the models. I don't remember ever seeing a run near 1070mb either.

[tireman4]

remember that guy who said "East Texas pine trees would stop cold air intrusions"....dont know why I thought about that....

What??? That is a joke.. Right????? Lol
I don't remember who said it, but a few names do come to mind. I also only remeber one person who said Ike would not come here, but rather follow Rita, based on this gut feeling. Lol

Wow!! Such memories. We all do try. Salute to Dan and all those fun times.

That is the guy. He kept saying it over and over again. It was amazing.

[ticka1]

Humm....I wonder where Wxman57 (Mr Heat Miser) is?

He's at gander mtn buying parkas and all the coldweather gear he can..... i'm watching but not jumping on the train just yet. I'll see what the models are showing on Friday and make my decison. Until them I'm loving ya'lls posts and discussions!

To Dan the Man - if you are sending us this from the heavens above.....THANK YOU for us winter fanatics.

[TexasMetBlake]

You know this is really exciting stuff, but lets not forget that the "fun" is/could have devastating impacts on a lot of people. I mean we're not talking about a low of 25 at IAH. Yeah, for a high maybe (I kid, kinda). IF** a 1070 mb high drops down, folks we're talking about a freeze that will be longed talked about. Lows around the Houston area could range from single digits at places like CXO and Sugar Land to 10 or 12 at IAH. I don't think some of you realize just how severe this **COULD** be.

[snowman65]

Does anyone recall the last time the models stayed on track this far out with this type (or similar) of weather???

[Andrew]

Well I am glad to see the board so active. While this setup looks pretty amazing and makes many speechless it is also 9-10 days out. That is a long ways out and a lot can change. I think it will get cold but a 1070mb high dropping down? That is insane and I need to get into the 4-5 day period before I start believing that. It is going to be a long couple of days for all of us. I am interested what some of the professionals on here have to say. What do you think Candy Cane?

[Andrew]

Does anyone recall the last time the models stayed on track this far out with this type (or similar) of weather???

I think it was the December 2004 snow event.

That is the last time I remember.

[TexasMetBlake]

What concerns me is the flipping of the Euro on the 500 mb flow. At 0z, it showed a zonal flow which would almost indicate the arctic front clearing the Houston area, but barely. However yesterday's 12z looked much like today's 12z (a big block over AK) which indicates this coming right down the lee of the Rockies. When looking at the Euro, you see that the -20 isotherms are moving into Colorado. Most of the elevations out there are at or above 850 mb. So that translates to surface temperatures. That means highs of -30 below zero F in places like Cheyenne and Billings. Denver may not get out above -20 below F. That is incredible. There are a couple of keys here to watch for:

1. Upper-level pattern (500 mb). Today's 12z Euro is the sweet spot for the mother load to find its way to Houston. The isoheights are literally vertical from northern Canada to Mexico. If the flow is zonal, it favors cold air going east and the arctic front stalling out.

2. Cloud cover and wind. If the shortwave over New Mexico swings across behind the first arctic front, then Houston will get snow---quite possibly a few inches. The clouds will moderate temps overnight but keep temps cold during the day. Keep in mind that highs in the 20s in Houston have happened several times but are exceedingly rare. IF we haver a snow cover, the low moves east and the high builds in then we may have clear skies with a snow covered ground. That will allow temperatures to drop to levels many have never seen here...at least since 1989. However, if we are socked in with clouds and the wind stays high, chances are we won't get as cold...especially if the snow does not come to fruition. It is going to take some serious CAA to get us into the mid and low teens anyway.

[srainhoutx]

Well I am glad to see the board so active.

Second highest for folks online behind Alex in Late June. Welcome folks and don't be afraid to sign up and join in on the conversations. We really do not bite.

In total there are 41 users online :: 12 registered, 1 hidden and 28 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

[randybpt]

time to dust off the snow machine. im guessing a wet bulb of 25 or lower is a good bet. last year dan posted pics of the snow i made during the jan 7th cold snap bout 8000 sq ft average depth 12 inches....i need to make plans better this year to make more. need a 220 compressor and stronger pressure washer. here is one pic from last year

[TexasMetBlake]

AFD's should start rolling out in about 30 min. Can't wait. Gonna scarf down a sandwich really quickly and I'll be back. By scarf I mean inhale. LOL

[Andrew]

What concerns me is the flipping of the Euro on the 500 mb flow. At 0z, it showed a zonal flow which would almost indicate the arctic front clearing the Houston area, but barely. However yesterday's 12z looked much like today's 12z (a big block over AK) which indicates this coming right down the lee of the Rockies. When looking at the Euro, you see that the -20 isotherms are moving into Colorado. Most of the elevations out there are at or above 850 mb. So that translates to surface temperatures. That means highs of -30 below zero F in places like Cheyenne and Billings. Denver may not get out above -20 below F. That is incredible. There are a couple of keys here to watch for:

1. Upper-level pattern (500 mb). Today's 12z Euro is the sweet spot for the mother load to find its way to Houston. The isoheights are literally vertical from northern Canada to Mexico. If the flow is zonal, it favors cold air going east and the arctic front stalling out.

2. Cloud cover and wind. If the shortwave over New Mexico swings across behind the first arctic front, then Houston will get snow---quite possibly a few inches. The clouds will moderate temps overnight but keep temps cold during the day. Keep in mind that highs in the 20s in Houston have happened several times but are exceedingly rare. IF we haver a snow cover, the low moves east and the high builds in then we may have clear skies with a snow covered ground. That will allow temperatures to drop to levels many have never seen here...at least since 1989. However, if we are socked in with clouds and the wind stays high, chances are we won't get as cold...especially if the snow does not come to fruition. It is going to take some serious CAA to get us into the mid and low teens anyway.

Thanks Candy. A couple of things I will keep in mind.


Hopefully Srain we will get more people registering We don't bite most of the time.

[brazoria121]

AFD's should start rolling out in about 30 min. Can't wait. Gonna scarf down a sandwich really quickly and I'll be back. By scarf I mean inhale. LOL

dont choke!

[Katdaddy]

Lubbock AFD:

BEYOND DAY 7...SERIOUS CONUS COLD AIR INTRUSION BEING ADVERTISED
IN THE GUIDANCE AND THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY AO PHASE AS WELL AS WEAK MJO PHASE 5 STARTING ON THE 21ST OF
DEC...WHICH OFTEN PRECEDES COLD AIR INTRUSIONS BY 21 DAYS. STAY
TUNED...THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD SNAP. 26

Austin AFD:

THIS WILL
USHER IN A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SURGES SOUTH. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS DRY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING.

[Katdaddy]

Corpus Christi AFD:

BEYOND DAY 8...A VERY COLD AIRMASS MAY IMPACT SOUTH TEXAS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ARCTIC
AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR 1060MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS COULD BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH TEXAS SO
FAR THIS SEASON. CHECK BACK IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE LATEST.

[Katdaddy]

Houston-Galveston AFD:

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DO INDICATE ARCTIC SOURCE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING TO NW CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
BE INTERESTING.

[biggerbyte]

I'll choke (and love every minute of it) if this front moves through our area. The last time I saw this was when I still lived in Dallas in the late 80s. You guys talked about how cold it was here. Multiply that by x.x.. It was soooooo cold.

[srainhoutx]

Just a reminder that the AFD's will not be in the longer range that the 240+ hours of the GFS showed regarding the second surge of Arctic Air.

Dodge City, KS:

MONDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD IN THE
MORNING, AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES, WITH MINS DOWN IN THE 09-11F
RANGE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SUCH AS THE SCOTT CITY AND WAKEENEY
AREAS. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW -10F IN
THE SCOTT CITY AREA, AND THAT TIME WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS THAT TIME FRAME GETS CLOSER.
ADDITIONALLY, MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AFTERNOON IN THIS
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS AS WELL, WITH HIGHS MONDAY RANGING
FROM 23 (N) TO 27 (SE). TUESDAY COULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING COMING
UP, WITH LOWS FROM 5F TO 15F, AND THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM
17F-22F, BUT THAT IS DAY 8 AND WILL NOT WORRY ABOUT DAY 8 AT THIS
TIME.