January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

Happy New Year guys. Any indication of winter precip in Jan?

Still too early to know with any certainty, cisa. With that said, the ensembles are looking mighty chilly in the 8-10 day time frame. Also the CPC January Monthly 30 day Update suggests Equal chances either above or below normal, temp wise.

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z GFS continues the trend that suggests wintry weather across TX near the Janaury 8th-10th time frame. Hmmm...

[sambucol]

Would that possibility include our area?

[srainhoutx]

Would that possibility include our area?

Close enough for redneckweather to not have to travel too far.

[sleetstorm]

The 18Z GFS continues the trend that suggests wintry weather across TX near the Janaury 8th-10th time frame. Hmmm...

It includes the second weekend of January and the new year. How close is not too far for redneckweather to have travel too far, Austin, College Station?

Would there be any feasiblity of sleet or a rain & snow mix for Houston and the beleagering cities?

[Paul]

The 18Z GFS continues the trend that suggests wintry weather across TX near the Janaury 8th-10th time frame. Hmmm...

It includes the second weekend of January and the new year. How close is not too far for redneckweather to have travel too far, Austin, College Station?

Would there be any feasiblity of sleet or a rain & snow mix for Houston and the beleagering cities?

let see what the 12z spits out in a few hours....that is a nasty looking scenario for midTexas and even parts of SE TX....if that were to verify, I am sure we would see something here in greater Houston area. Freezing rain maybe few flakes but we are talking 10 days away.....

[redneckweather]

College Station, Dallas, Austin and points inbetween are all good for me. Make it happen srain!!

[ronyan]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/24688.html

Talk about cold!
Look at Wednesday!

[srainhoutx]

I'll give the GFS credit for persistence...1056mb Arctic high...

[biggerbyte]

Would be nice.. Bring it on..

28 more minutes until 2011...

[sleetstorm]

HAPPY NEW YEAR, everyone!! We made it to another new year and decade.

[biggerbyte]

Gosh!! How many years have we all been a weather family now??? Amazing!! We've seen season after season, storm after storm, and have seen some serious, then sometimes fun and exciting weather events, watching out for one another and our personal friends and families. Sadly we must move on to yet another year of changes without a special friend. I don't know how that is even possible, but we must move on somehow.

God bless Dan and his family.
Happy New Year to all.

BB

[Baseballdude2915]

Happy New Year everybody.

Talk about cold is right, the low in that village in Russia is -94F!!!!
The record was -90F back in 1933, which is the coldest for any inhabited place on earth.
Wonder if it gets broken.

[wxman57]

Sub-freezing air over KS/NE as a disturbance passes across Texas is not a recipe for snow in our area next weekend. Possibly the TX panhandle, OK and AR and east of there. And the GFS is considerably wetter than the Euro. Canadian suggest snow up in OK and AR as well next weekend. I'd go with some cold rain here - temps in the 50s. That's close to what the current GFS run is indicating for Houston:

[srainhoutx]

I looked for you on TV last night wxman57, but the crowds were mighty big at Discovery Green. While the GFS backed off the mega snow for TX, the models (virtually all of them) do show a storm. What is equally impressive is the strength of the Arctic Air and very strong Arctic High pressure showing up, run after run. In fact the 00Z ensembles strongly agree with a very chilly pattern and disturbances in the Upper flow passing by as the cold air is in place. The $64,000.00 is will there be moisture available when that cold air arrives and how soon or fast does the Arctic air surge S. Also is the timing of those short waves. Even the 06Z GFS shows a near 1060mb Arctic high near AK/Western Canada. Should make for an interesting week, regardless.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
354 AM EST SAT JAN 01 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 05 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA THIS FIRST WEEK
OF 2011 WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING EPISODE AS A
HUGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WORKS WSW FROM SRN GREENLAND TO N
CENTRAL CANADA WITH ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD.
FARTHER S...LOW HEIGHTS AND COLD AIR WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS MUCH
OF S CENTRAL AND SERN CANADA INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
48. THE LOCATION OF THE COLDEST AIR IS A GOOD FIT TO
TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY WORKING WSW FROM
SRN GREENLAND. AS DURING MUCH OF DECEMBER...THE REGION E OF THE
ROCKY MTNS WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
MAXIMUMS.


OUR PRELIM CHOICE FOR A BLEND TODAY...HAD A HIGHER PROPORTION THAN
USUAL OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LOWER THAN USUAL COMPONENT OF
THE ECMWF. IT WAS PREDOMINANTLY 50% OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...30% OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...AND 20% OF THE CANADIAN.
THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO OUR SKEPTICISM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD IN THE WAY THE ECMWF HANDLED A PAIR OF UPPER VORTICES
AFFECTING THE W COAST STATES. WE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE
SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF FOR THE W COAST STATES AS WE ENTERED
THE MEDIUM RANGE. WHILE THE SOLUTION FROM OFF THE CA COAST ACROSS
THE SWRN STATES IS MURKY AT BEST DAYS 3-5/TUE-THU...OF GREATER
IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT THE 00Z/01 GEFS MEAN IS A BIT COLDER
THAN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THIS PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. THIS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE BLOCKING MOVING ACROSS FAR NERN AND NRN CANADA.

FLOOD

[perk]

Happy New Year to all my weather forum friends and their families. I look foward to what i hope will be an interesting 2011 weather year on my favorote weather forum.

[wxman57]

I looked for you on TV last night wxman57, but the crowds were mighty big at Discovery Green. While the GFS backed off the mega snow for TX, the models (virtually all of them) do show a storm. What is equally impressive is the strength of the Arctic Air and very strong Arctic High pressure showing up, run after run. In fact the 00Z ensembles strongly agree with a very chilly pattern and disturbances in the Upper flow passing by as the cold air is in place. The $64,000.00 is will there be moisture available when that cold air arrives and how soon or fast does the Arctic air surge S. Also is the timing of those short waves. Even the 06Z GFS shows a near 1060mb Arctic high near AK/Western Canada. Should make for an interesting week, regardless... snip

I looked for us on TV, too. I did notice that the footage Ch. 13 was showing was actually taken when they were at the park back on December 11th. We were passing through Discovery Green on our bikes that evening on the way to "Lights in the Heights". That couple in the bike helmets (dressed in red) were in our group and were standing right next to us on Dec. 11th when they did the interview. They were actually asking about New Year's Eve back then, probably to get footage for last night's show. Most of the footage from yesterday was taken after we'd left (toward the end of the art car parade).

As for the pattern, our long-range guy agrees that cold air is building to our north. But I don't see a mechanism (yet) for the cold air to track straight south to the lee of the Rockies. It's not uncommon for such cold air to build in Canada during a La Nina. A typical La Nina pattern favors it staying up there and/or tracking southeast toward the Great Lakes and East U.S. rather than south.

For now, I don't see much of a chance of anything but rain and temps near 50 in the next 7-10 days here.

Looking back on December, IAH temps were 1.7F above normal, which is about 5-6F warmer than December 2009. In 2009, we only hit 70F 3 times in December. We hit 70F+ 13 times this December, and 80F+ twice. Hopefully, January 2011 will be similarly "warmer" than last.

[srainhoutx]

As for the pattern, our long-range guy agrees that cold air is building to our north. But I don't see a mechanism (yet) for the cold air to track straight south to the lee of the Rockies. It's not uncommon for such cold air to build in Canada during a La Nina. A typical La Nina pattern favors it staying up there and/or tracking southeast toward the Great Lakes and East U.S. rather than south.

For now, I don't see much of a chance of anything but rain and temps near 50 in the next 7-10 days here.

Several things I'm seeing is a 'hint' of a -EPO and a relaxing -NAO. Add to the mix a SSW event and tropical forcing with an expected MJO pulse. All in all my thinking is this has not been a typical La Nina pattern. There have been too many events that suggest otherwise (look at the West Coast storminess). What is somewhat typical is the persistent dry regime that was present from late fall until Christmas. That is where the pattern change began. Will it last and can the above mentioned anomalies produce in our part of the world? That remains to be seen. Happy New Year Weather Forum Family!

[redneckweather]

Interesting srain. I would love to see this cold air head straight south but I am 98% convinced that the coldest air of the season has come and gone. We hit 23 degrees here at my house and I don't see any front the rest of the season getting us down to that again. Of course that was under no wind and clear skies at night.

[srainhoutx]

Oh my...

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