December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[TexasBreeze]

I felt it and saw it go through with the thicker mid clouds being pushed away with frontal passage and cooler air advecting in. Time to put up lights outside before it gets too cool!

[srainhoutx]

Something tells me wxman57 is getting a workout on that bike this evening. Winds are gusting in the 30's out there!

[Mr. T]

18z GFS really responding to the tanking AO at the end of the run...

[wxman57]

Something tells me wxman57 is getting a workout on that bike this evening. Winds are gusting in the 30's out there!

We were in the middle of downtown when the strongest wind hit. I'd estimate 40-50 mph winds blowing between the buildings at one point. The wind hit us in the back when we were riding very slowly and it actually accelerated me to over 20 mph without pedaling.

[biggerbyte]

It is going to be a very chilly night, folks. Upper 20s for many, with places like Conroe a little colder than that. Elsewhere, 30s will be common.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

.STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO HELP VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS..
AND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE...SAVE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-130545-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.W.0004.101213T0600Z-101213T1500Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...
GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...
TRINITY...WILLIS336 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST MONDAY.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WARNING APPLIES TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 DEGREES FOR
2 TO 4 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 32
DEGREES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO COVER
TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION AS WELL AS PROTECT EXPOSED OUTDOOR
PIPES.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

.STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO HELP VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS..
AND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE...SAVE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-130545-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.W.0003.101213T0600Z-101213T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WINNIE336 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST MONDAY.

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH 9 AM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
HAS PRODUCED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED
WITH THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 32 DEGREES AROUND
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS
COULD SEE UP TO 8 HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHILE
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA COULD RANGE FROM 2
TO 3 HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO COVER TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION AS WELL AS
PROTECT EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES.

[biggerbyte]

Cold, then warm again, then cold, then.....
Good thing many of us like rollercoasters.

[Andrew]

Check out those dew-points. All the way down in the teens for most areas. If the winds would die down some more temps could really drop.

[biggerbyte]

My area has dewpoints in the teens. It will be the coldest night so far. We sure are cooling off the country, with big snows in the states to our north. If we could get the right pattern to set up, then tonights cold would be nothing in comparison.

[Andrew]

My area has dewpoints in the teens. It will be the coldest night so far. We sure are cooling off the country, with big snows in the states to our north. If we could get the right pattern to set up, then tonights cold would be nothing in comparison.

Well the most amazing part of this is this is just the edge of the cold air. If we got the full thing we could see temps in the lower 20's! I feel bad for the Farmers in Florida though.

[TexasMetBlake]

My area has dewpoints in the teens. It will be the coldest night so far. We sure are cooling off the country, with big snows in the states to our north. If we could get the right pattern to set up, then tonights cold would be nothing in comparison.

Well the most amazing part of this is this is just the edge of the cold air. If we got the full thing we could see temps in the lower 20's! I feel bad for the Farmers in Florida though.

Well many areas will see mid and lower 20s. Conroe is forecast to hit 23. If we got the full brunt, this would surpass last year's hard freeze by a few degrees I'd bet. IAH bottomed out at 20 last year, Conroe 15, Hooks 16. I bet we'd see the same type of freeze if we had gotten it.

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed as the the GFS, Canadian and Euro suggest a short wave embedded in the Polar Jet with some Pacific moisture will move across the area this weekend and perhaps bring a chance of light rain for our area. Further N, perhaps even some wintry precip. This feature may be on the way to being a big East Coast snow event as it wraps up along the EC. We shall see...

HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
829 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 17 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 20 2010


...PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z ECMWF TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3
AND 4...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO THE 06Z GEFS MEAN BY DAY 6.
THE BLOCKY REGIME IS INDICATED TO HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD BY ALL
THE MODELS...WITH A SUPPRESSED POLAR JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE NATION.
HEIGHTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO HERNIATE NORTHWARD. THE
DETAILS OF THE ENERGY COMING INTO THE WEST COAST ARE WILDLY
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS TO SUPPORT THE BLEND USED
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE SITUATION ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
FAR MORE CONTENTIOUS...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS BOTH BRINGING
A MAJOR SNOWSTORM TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DAYS 6 AND 7.
THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT OVER THIS
REGION...AS DOES THE GEM GLOBAL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/12 AND 12Z/11
RUNS OF THE ECMWF BOTH SHOWED THE SNOWSTORM. OPTED TO GO WITH THE
06Z GEFS MEAN FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...WHICH AT LEAST BRINGS A
CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...JUST FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND WITH LESS ISOBARIC COMMITMENT...IF YOU WILL. THIS
CHOICE LEAVES ROOM FOR TRENDING EITHER WAY.

[wxman57]

06Z GFS indicates about 0.15" of rain on Friday evening with temps near 50. Not really enough to do much good. I just don't see any significant moisture for any passing systems to work with over the next few weeks. And it looks like a big East Coast low will be setting up in 8-10 days. That should keep us quite dry and cool.

[TexasMetBlake]

Temps busted a bit across the area last night and some locations by more than 5 degrees. Here are some lows and 27 appears to be the winner.

IAH: 32 (forecast was 27)
CLL: 27 (forecast was 25)
Hooks: 26
CXO: 27 (forecast was 23)
Sugar Land: 27
Hobby: 35

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z runs offer a little hope for some moisture as the short wave swings by this weekend...

[redneckweather]

They say every little bit helps BUT this little bit over the weekend wouldn't even put a dent in anything. It will kind of be like me peeing off my back porch in the evening. I'm pissing on grass that is already dead. A good long soaker is what we need which isn't in the cards anytime soon.

On a side note: I thought I heard thunder wake me up the other night. I got up to look outside and then it happened. The chili I had that evening was talking back to me.

[jasons2k]

I did a full-blown hard freeze prep (well, almost full-blown -- let's say "orange alert" instead of "red alert")...

Anyway, covered all the plants and wrapped my tender palms in anticipation of 25 degrees (it had been forecasted to be 27; the 4PM update dropped it to 25 and *gasp*).

I Woke-up and I had a low of 30. I'm not complaining except most of the hard part (getting up on ladders and wrapping the palms) was totally unnecessary. Oh well...better safe than sorry, right?

I know it's probably not the popular opinion, but I sure hope this is the last major cold snap - I am hoping for a more typical La Nina in Jan - Feb.

[wxman57]

At least the winds are now out of the south across Houston. Can't get a freeze with a south wind.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect the shifting to a zonal pattern will increase any chances for moisture. Some is better than nothing, IMO. We're getting mighty close to a fireworks ban for New Years Eve...

[srainhoutx]

00Z NAM offers some hope for TX regarding moisture. We'll see what the week brings...