At this point, are we facing a bad drought unless we get heavy Jan and Feb rains?
Normally Houston is pretty wet about now, no?
Lake Conroe is down about 2' and that's odd for this time of year...
Drought???
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srainhoutx
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
825 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOW IN EXTREME DROUGHT...
...DECEMBER TO REMAIN DRY WITH DROUGHT
CONDITIONS INTENSIFYING...
SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS. THIS IS
A DRY FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LA NINA EPISODE
PORTENDS A RATHER DRY WINTER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION ON DECEMBER
8TH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL CLOSE TO THE COAST AND NOT OVER
AREAS SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THIS LA NINA PHASE IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGER EVENTS ON
RECORD. OTHER YEARS WITH STRONG LA NINA SIGNALS ARE 1916...1917...
1955...1975 AND 1999. BELOW ARE TABLES WITH THE RAINFALL DURING THE
WINTER MONTHS FOR THOSE LA NINA EPISODES:
HOUSTON
YEAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR YEAR
1916/17 1.05 2.31 3.68 1.29 1.56 0.65 35.85
1917/18 0.32 0.93 1.19 0.96 1.69 3.25 17.66#
1955/56 0.71 1.36 1.90 3.19 1.80 1.23 41.08
1975/76 5.62 2.08 3.61 1.39 0.38 1.53 50.97
1999/00 0.56 1.53 2.20 1.25 2.32 1.35 28.04
NORMAL 4.50 4.19 3.69 3.68 2.98 3.36
GALVESTON
YEAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR YEAR
1916/17 0.99 2.16 0.79 2.21 2.51 0.91 30.86
1917/18 1.49 0.97 1.00 0.54 1.11 1.65 21.43*
1955/56 2.68 0.51 2.41 2.44 1.87 1.14 34.09
1975/76 4.83 4.56 3.96 3.41 1.07 1.39 42.06
1999/00 3.00 1.59 5.81 1.74 1.71 1.92 33.61
NORMAL 3.49 3.64 3.53 4.08 2.61 2.76
COLLEGE STATION
YEAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR YEAR
1916/17 1.55 1.91 0.49 1.90 2.37 0.55 28.83
1917/18 0.22 0.93 0.24 1.87 4.51 0.50 16.66#
1955/56 0.37 0.85 1.53 3.15 3.37 1.34 25.08
1975/76 3.88 1.01 1.11 1.18 1.17 3.66 38.00
1999/00 1.58 1.09 1.54 3.14 0.91 2.57 24.62
NORMAL 4.22 3.18 3.23 3.32 2.38 2.84
# DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
* 2ND DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1916...1917...1955...1975 AND 1999
AS OF DECEMBER 9TH 2010...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN EXTREME DROUGHT OR D-3. MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE BEEN
CLASSIFIED IN SEVERE DROUGHT OF D-2. BELOW IS A LIST OF COUNTIES AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE CLASSIFICATION AS DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR:
EXTREME D-3 SEVERE D-2 MODERATE D-1 ABNORMAL D-0
DROUGHT DROUGHT DROUGHT DRY
BRAZOS AUSTIN BRAZORIA GALVESTON
GRIMES BURLESON CHAMBERS MATAGORDA
HOUSTON COLORADO JACKSON
MADISON FORT BEND WHARTON
TRINITY HARRIS
WALKER LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY
POLK
SAN JACINTO
WALLER
WASHINGTON
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS
BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
A WATER EMERGENCY.
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR
WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
WATER DEFICITS.
FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
IT IS NO SECRET THAT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE BEEN
DRY. THIS RECENT DRY PERIOD HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST THREE TO
FOUR MONTHS BUT THE DRY PERIOD ACTUALLY STARTED MUCH EARLIER. IT HAS
BEEN UNSEASONABLY DRY SINCE HURRICANE IKE (SEP 2008). ALTHOUGH THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW HEAVY RAIN EPISODES OVER THE LAST 27 MONTHS...THE
OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR DRIER WEATHER. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH THE
FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH MONTHLY
RAINFALL...DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AND THE TOTAL RAINFALL DEFICIT
SINCE OCTOBER 2008:
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT
2008 DEP 2009 DEP 2010 DEP
JAN NA NA 0.49 -3.19 2.53 -1.15
FEB NA NA 1.52 -1.46 3.55 +0.57
MAR NA NA 4.08 +0.72 1.88 -1.48
APR NA NA 10.38 +6.78 2.81 -0.79
MAY NA NA 0.38 -4.77 3.68 -1.47
JUN NA NA 0.27 -5.08 3.75 -1.60
JUL NA NA 2.84 -0.34 12.92 +9.74
AUG NA NA 2.11 -1.72 1.02 -2.81
SEP IKE IKE 4.68 +0.35 4.81 +0.48
OCT 8.67 +4.17 13.16 +8.66 0.02 -4.48
NOV 2.92 -1.27 1.66 -2.53 2.71 -1.48
DEC 1.68 -2.01 5.44 +1.75 0.05 -0.93#
SUM 13.27 47.01 39.73#
NORMAL 47.84 45.49# (47.84)
DEP +0.89 -0.83 -5.76# (-8.11)
# THROUGH DECEMBER 11...VALUE IN PARENTHESIS REPRESENTS TOTALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR ASSUMING NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
MONTHS ABOVE NORMAL = 9
MONTHS BELOW NORMAL = 18
OVER THE LAST 27 MONTHS...BY A 2 TO 1 RATIO...MONTHLY RAINFALL HAS
BEEN LESS THAN NORMAL. THE 27 MONTH DEPARTURE HAS BEEN SKEWED
BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN APRIL 2009...OCTOBER 2009 AND JULY
2010.
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT HAS FARED BETTER THAN MOST
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WHILE MOST COMMUNITIES HAVE SUFFERED
12 TO 22 INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS SINCE 2008...HOUSTON IAH HAS ONLY
ENDURED A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 5.70 INCHES.
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT
2008 DEP 2009 DEP 2010 DEP
JAN NA NA 0.37 -3.88 2.30 -1.95
FEB NA NA 1.18 -1.83 3.38 +0.37
MAR NA NA 2.52 -0.67 2.04 -1.15
APR NA NA 15.61 +12.15 1.06 -2.40
MAY NA NA 0.66 -4.45 1.71 -3.40
JUN NA NA 1.39 -5.45 5.06 -1.78
JUL NA NA 3.62 -0.74 12.77 +8.41
AUG NA NA 1.63 -2.91 1.40 -3.14
SEP IKE IKE 5.31 -0.31 6.63 +1.01
OCT 2.62 -2.64 11.52 +6.26 0.07 -5.19
NOV 4.97 +0.43 1.88 -2.66 4.76 +0.22
DEC 0.86 -2.92 6.96 +3.18 0.27 -0.73#
SUM 8.45 52.65 41.45#
NORMAL 53.96 51.54# (53.96)
DEP -5.13 -1.31 -10.09# (-12.51)
# THROUGH DECEMBER 11...VALUE IN PARENTHESIS REPRESENTS TOTALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR ASSUMING NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
MONTHS ABOVE NORMAL = 8
MONTHS BELOW NORMAL = 19
HOBBY AIRPORT ON HOUSTON`S SOUTHEAST SIDE HAS SUFFERED A RAINFALL
DEFICIT OF 16.53 INCHES SINCE OCTOBER 1 2008 WITH ABOUT A THIRD OF
THIS DEFICIT OCCURRING IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS.
COLLEGE STATION EASTERWOOD FIELD
2008 DEP 2009 DEP 2010 DEP
JAN NA NA 0.70 -2.62 2.93 -0.39
FEB NA NA 0.68 -1.70 2.77 +0.39
MAR NA NA 5.07 +2.23 2.62 -0.22
APR NA NA 6.11 +2.91 1.11 -2.09
MAY NA NA 1.41 -3.64 2.00 -3.05
JUN NA NA TRACE -3.79 7.31 +3.52
JUL NA NA 2.42 +0.50 1.23 -0.69
AUG NA NA 0.69 -1.94 0.34 -2.29
SEP IKE IKE 7.42 +3.51 5.86 +1.85
OCT 1.73 -2.49 8.25 +4.03 TRACE -4.42
NOV 1.35 -1.83 3.42 +0.24 0.90 -2.28
DEC 0.80 -2.43 2.81 -0.42 TRACE -0.80#
SUM 3.88 38.98 26.97#
NORMAL 39.67 37.54# (39.67)
DEP -6.75 -0.69 -10.57# (-12.70)
# THROUGH DECEMBER 11...VALUE IN PARENTHESIS REPRESENTS TOTALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR ASSUMING NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
MONTHS ABOVE NORMAL = 9
MONTHS BELOW NORMAL = 18
COLLEGE STATION HAS SUFFERED A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 18.01 INCHES
SINCE OCTOBER 1 2008 WITH OVER 40 PERCENT OF THIS TOTAL OCCURRING IN
THE LAST THREE MONTHS.
COLLEGE STATION IS NO STRANGER TO HAVING MONTHS WITHOUT RAIN OR
RECEIVING JUST A TRACE OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH UNCOMMON IT IS NOT
UNPRECEDENTED. HERE ARE THE MONTHS WHEN COLLEGE STATION DID NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN:
0.00 AUG 1902 TRACE AUG 1952
0.00 OCT 1952 TRACE JUL 1993
TRACE JUN 1998
TRACE JUL 2000
TRACE SEP 2005
TRACE JUN 2009
TRACE OCT 2010
GALVESTON SCHOLES FIELD
2008 DEP 2009 DEP 2010 DEP
JAN NA NA 0.34 -3.74 2.27 -1.81
FEB NA NA 1.05 -1.56 3.47 +0.86
MAR NA NA 3.73 +0.97 1.41 -1.35
APR NA NA 5.23 +2.67 0.94 -1.62
MAY NA NA 0.19 -3.51 3.66 -0.04
JUN NA NA 0.32 -3.72 2.37 -1.67
JUL NA NA 2.72 -0.73 4.76 +1.31
AUG NA NA 1.08 -3.14 0.52 -3.70
SEP IKE IKE 5.24 -0.52 4.60 -1.16
OCT 1.37 -2.12 6.76 +3.27 0.11 -3.38
NOV 3.37 -0.27 3.97 +0.33 6.90 +3.26
DEC 1.82 -1.71 6.53 +3.00 0.33 -0.91#
ANNUAL 6.56 37.16 31.34#
NORMAL 43.84 41.55# (43.84)
DEP -4.10 -6.68 -10.21# (-12.51)
MONTHS ABOVE NORMAL = 8
MONTHS BELOW NORMAL = 19
SINCE OCTOBER 1 2008 GALVESTON IS 20.99 INCHES OF RAIN BELOW NORMAL.
YET GALVESTON COUNTY IS ONLY CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY ON THE
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT INLAND PORTIONS OF
GALVESTON COUNTY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN IN BOTH 2009 AND 2010. AT THE
NWS OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY...RAINFALL IN 2009 WAS 56.08 INCHES...
ALMOST 20 INCHES HIGHER THAN SCHOLES FIELD. IN 2010...LEAGUE CITY
RECORDED 50.33 INCHES THROUGH DECEMBER 11...AND THAT IS ABOUT 19
INCHES HIGHER THAN RAINFALL RECORDED ON THE ISLAND.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTED. PONDS AND CREEKS WERE LOW AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS WERE BECOMING CRITICAL. WINTER PASTURES WERE
STRESSED. WINTER WHEAT AND OTHER SMALL GRAINS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN. PRODUCERS BEGUN APPLYING FERTILIZER TO FIELDS
FOR SPRING CROPS. PRODUCERS INCREASED RATIONS OF HAY AND PROTEIN
SUPPLEMENTS FOR CATTLE. LIVESTOCK REMAINED IN FAIR TO GOOD
CONDITION.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT WEST OF A TRINITY TO
BELLVILLE LINE WHILE 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 50
PERCENT WEST OF A NEW WAVERLY TO BELLVILLE LINE. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN
1000 HOUR DEAD FUEL WAS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEST OF A CROCKETT TO
BAY CITY LINE.
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES ARE HIGH OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THE
VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN (INCREASE) OVER THE NEXT
14 DAYS. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (12/10/2010):
600-700 500-600 400-500 200-300
AUSTIN COLORADO BRAZORIA GALVESTON
BRAZOS FORT BEND CHAMBERS
BURLESON LIBERTY HARRIS
GRIMES MONTGOMERY JACKSON
HOUSTON POLK MATAGORDA
MADISON SAN JACINTO
TRINITY WHARTON
WALKER
WALLER
WASHINGTON
(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).
RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
THE UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE HAS BANNED ALL FIRES IN THE NATIONAL
FORESTS LOCATED IN THE STATE OF TEXAS. OFFICIALS ARE CAUTIONING
VISITORS AND CAMPERS ABOUT THE RISK OF FIRE IN THE
ANGELINA...SABINE...DAVY CROCKETT AND SAM HOUSTON NATIONAL FORESTS.
COUNTY BURN BAN DECLARATIONS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST WEEK.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON DECEMBER 10
2010...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUSTIN...BRAZOS...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GRIMES...MADISON...
TRINITY...WASHINGTON...WALLER AND WHARTON.
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN. PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED WILDFIRES SO
CAMPERS...HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL
WITH CAMP FIRES AND FIREARMS. WELDERS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHILE PERFORMING THEIR DUTIES. FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT
DISCARD LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL AS RAINFALL OVER NORTH TEXAS HAS
DECREASED. AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DROP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WATERSHED CAPACITY
LAKE LIVINGSTON 100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE 92.4 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE 89.6 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON 99.8 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE 86.2 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA 84.6 PERCENT
WATER RESTRICTIONS...NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER TEXAS.
THIS WILL SHUNT STORM SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND KEEP
RAINFALL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. THE NORMAL
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS AROUND 3.50 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A RECENT TOPSY TURVY TREND WITH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES...THEN
COLDER AGAIN. BY THE END OF THE MONTH...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID
DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFYING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT IF NEEDED WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND
SATURDAY DECEMBER 18TH.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
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HGX updated drought information and expands extreme drought conditions in SE TX...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=pns_2010 ... _statement
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=pns_2010 ... _statement
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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