December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[Andrew]

Hope this does not happen: (BTW 18z GFS for what its worth has the trough coming in stronger giving us a possible freeze but little to no leftover moisture)





Also while this is the long range and the GFS could be wrong it does show warm weather around these parts after next weeks cold front. I am sure Wxman (and myself) is cheering for the long range GFS:

[Ptarmigan]

Tomorrow's QPF forecast.

[Andrew]

Florida could get cold next week:

[harpman]

In the New Orleans area, we actually have light snow/flurries in our forecast for Wednesday morning. The latest models have trended back to this for our location.

[srainhoutx]

I see that Hooks has fallen to 41 as of the latest update. That seems a bit colder than what I was expecting to see this early. Hmmm...

Code: Select all

2010.12.06 2353 UTC  
Wind  Calm  
Visibility  10 mile(s)  
Sky conditions  clear  
Temperature  41.0 F (5.0 C)  
Dew Point  30.9 F (-0.6 C)  
Relative Humidity  67%  
Pressure (altimeter)  30.35 in. Hg (1027 hPa)  
Pressure tendency  0.03 inches (0.9 hPa) lower than three hours ago  
ob  KDWH 062353Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 05/M01 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP278 T00501006 10128 20050 56009 

[srainhoutx]

00Z NAM at 30 hours suggests light rain spreading inland and light snow in the ArkLaTex region. While it may miss our area, its just close enough to keep an eye on...

[srainhoutx]

What's this over Austin heading SE? Interesting...a bit of upper air 'energy' swinging through for some lift...

[Andrew]

What's this over Austin heading SE? Interesting...a bit of upper air 'energy' swinging through for some lift...

It's sooooooo close. I remember last year with Dallas's surprise snow storm.

[Kludge]

Lots of silence noted on this board right now from the meteogram department as this potential event draws near.

[srainhoutx]

00Z WRF. So close is right, Andrew... I'll take what ever moisture this disturbance brings and be happy.

[wxman57]

Not close enough, though. Still looks like light rain here with lower-level temps well above freezing. Could see some frozen stuff in south-central Louisiana, though surface temps will not be cold enough for anything to stick around, and the precip should be quite light.

[biggerbyte]

A nice little surprise with varying results. Remember that it does not take as much moisture in the winter time to get an event going. Newbies, you can take that statement for what it's worth. Remember the reasons why we get varying types of frozen precip.. If you want snow you can actually see falling, then certain conditions have to be met.

[wxman57]

Speaking of the vertical profile, here's the forecast for tomorrow evening. Note that where the temp/dew point lines are close together that the temperature is above 0 degrees C, meaning all clouds and precip are forecast to be in the above-freezing layer. Doesn't look like it'll even be close here. Just cold rain.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Norman, OK...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
920 PM CST MON DEC 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MOST OF TONIGHTS LOWS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

COMPACT AND FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE STILL PROGD TO IMPACT CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN ANY HEAVIER/CONCENTRATED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT INTENSITY AND DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN MUCH ACCUMULATION. PERHAPS ENOUGH TO TURN SOME GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES WHITE FOR A SHORT TIME. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WILL BE NEAR/NORTH OF OKC.

[Mr. T]

In the New Orleans area, we actually have light snow/flurries in our forecast for Wednesday morning. The latest models have trended back to this for our location.

I don't see it in the NWS forecast, but good luck... The atmosphere will be fairly dry

[TexasMetBlake]

Out of Birmingham. Wow.

THE BIG CHANGE
WILL COME ON THE HEELS OF THAT NEXT SYSTEM AS MUCH COLDER...PIPE
BUSTING TEMPERATURES DIVE SOUTH BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE COULD
SEE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS COME TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK.
STILL...LONG WAYS OFF.

[harpman]

In the New Orleans area, we actually have light snow/flurries in our forecast for Wednesday morning. The latest models have trended back to this for our location.

I don't see it in the NWS forecast, but good luck... The atmosphere will be fairly dry

All the local TV mets have it in their forecast.

[srainhoutx]

Coastal areas may well see some light rain. We will see just how far N into the Houston area this can make it...along and S of the HYW 59 corridor appears the most likely areas to see any chance of rainfall...

HPC QPF Discussion:

...SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD FM THE CNTRL ROCKIES..

THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LIMITED MSTR AVBLTY AND THEREFORE EXPECT THE
SWATH OF PCPN ASOCTD WITH THE DIGGING PROCESS FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL BE VRY LGT. HOWEVER BY THE 2ND
HALF OF THE PD...THERE WILL BE A SHORT PD WHEN A LLVL MSTR FETCH
FM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE AVBL TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
AND HEAVIER SHWRS INVOF OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
GNRL AGREEMENT ON THE LATTER SCENARIO AND OPTED FOR A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HERE.





12Z WRF...

[srainhoutx]

In the New Orleans area, we actually have light snow/flurries in our forecast for Wednesday morning. The latest models have trended back to this for our location.

I don't see it in the NWS forecast, but good luck... The atmosphere will be fairly dry

All the local TV mets have it in their forecast.

Good luck on the flurries, harpman...

[srainhoutx]

Shreveport considering Winter Weather Advisories...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WILL BE MADE AS ALL THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

BIG DECISION TODAY WILL BE ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE MODELS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST AREAS...SEE MAP ON HOMEPAGE FOR AREAS.
WILL HAVE COMPLETE PACKAGE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.