December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[wxman57]

I was just looking back at some maps from 2008. This situation is quite different. There was considerably more moisture available in 2008 than it appears we'll have this time around.

Here's some snow for y'all. It's from our snowmobile ride to the Continental Divide in Winter Park, CO last year. That's me, my wife, my mother and my sister. We weren't far from the top at that point.

Once you've see several feet of snow fall at a time in the Rockies, a few flakes aren't quite as exciting. Doesn't look like we'll see anything next week.

[redneckweather]

Great pic but I'd have to disagree with you on getting snow down here. I've been to Colorado numerous times and even got caught in a blizzard during January in Durango where 14 inches fell in a very short amount of time. We rode the Silverton Train while the snow was still falling, a very magical time. Anyways, snow is very rare down here so when their is a chance of it falling at my house, I get more exicted than actually being in a blizzard in Colorado.

I'm not giving up hope just yet. I don't see anything significant for next week but what I am hoping for at this point is to see some good snowflakes fall from the sky...even if it is just for a short period. That would make my winter right there, especially leading up to Christmas.

[wxman57]

Great pic but I'd have to disagree with you on getting snow down here. I've been to Colorado numerous times and even got caught in a blizzard during January in Durango where 14 inches fell in a very short amount of time. We rode the Silverton Train while the snow was still falling, a very magical time. Anyways, snow is very rare down here so when their is a chance of it falling at my house, I get more excited than actually being in a blizzard in Colorado.

I'm not giving up hope just yet. I don't see anything significant for next week but what I am hoping for at this point is to see some good snowflakes fall from the sky...even if it is just for a short period. That would make my winter right there, especially leading up to Christmas.

I hear you, I still do get excited when there's a chance for snow here. I'll go out in the yard with the floodlights on at night looking for signs of a snowflake. But I'm afraid this event just doesn't look like one to get too excited about. It wouldn't be 100% impossible to somehow get a few snow flurries Tuesday night out of this, but I'd give the chances of that as less than 5%. That's not good odds, and the only reason I'm that high is because the Canadian still does show more moisture than the Euro or GFS.

[sambucol]

I'm not giving up hope just yet. I don't see anything significant for next week but what I am hoping for at this point is to see some good snowflakes fall from the sky...even if it is just for a short period. That would make my winter right there, especially leading up to Christmas.

I'm not giving up either!

[srainhoutx]

After reading some of the afternoon discussions from various TX/OK NWS offices, it appears the 'down playing' has begun regarding precip chances. It also looks as if the GFS is the current choice of the day regarding which model they are buying, temp and frontal passage wise. The HPC Final Update does give some hints of what they are thinking...


12Z/02 DEC MODELS:

THE NEW 12Z GFS SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING CA LATE SUN DAY 3
LOSING MOST OF IT ENERGY AS IT APPROACHES THE LONGWAVE MEAN RIDGE
NEAR THE ROCKIES MON DAY 4. BY MON EVE THE GFS REMNANTS OF THIS
SYS HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE GIGANTIC FLYWHEEL OF ITS
CIRCULATION ON THE SW SIDE OF THE COLD VORTEX OVER NRN NEW ENG.
BELIEVE THE LATEST GFS MIGHT HAVE THE RIGHT TREND HERE BUT MAY BE
FILLING THE SYS TOO FAST. THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF MAINTAIN
THE INTEGRITY OF THE SYS MUCH MORE STRONGLY THAN THE GFS THRU THE
ROCKIES LONGWAVE RIDGE BUT ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE. 12Z/02 GFS
CONTINUITY IS ON TRACK WITH MOST OF THE OTHER LARGER SCALE
FEATURES.

[redneckweather]

Now what would really make my day is that ONLY my area got accumulating snow next week since my area missed out completely on the 2004 Christmas Miracle, again in 2008 and again last winter.

[biggerbyte]

I certainly deserve a snow of some sort after all I've been through. My mother is in one hospital having her arteries unclogged, while I'm in another with a bad virus. You guys stay well. This stuff is nasty.

In the meantime, let's all pray for a winter weather miracle. AZ, you might want to dig out that magic snow gun that Dan gave you.

[srainhoutx]

Wow, get better BB and best wishes to your Mom as well.

[biggerbyte]

Wow, get better BB and best wishes to your Mom as well.

Thank you so much, srain. Things are looking up for mom.
I'm not exactly sure what is up. I've lost six pounds in a week. Hopefully I will not need to pray for more than snow.


Anyway! If we could just get a few big flakes, or even a quick sleet/snow mix to go along with all that cold.
Sometimes it is the little things... No? Bring it on..
We are closing in on the weekend. An uptick in the models would be nice.

[srainhoutx]

All the players...

[biggerbyte]

Nice loop... Where is the one showing the snow storm heading for Houston?



One day...

[srainhoutx]

Heading S off British Columbia...the NAM suggests a bit further S entrance into CA with the U/A feature. We'll see what the other guidance offers tonight...what are we on, 39 pages on the 2nd of December?

[helloitsb]

I have not been active and haven't seen the 0z GFS so are the models starting to show a change again or are we being optimistic?

[wxman57]

I have not been active and haven't seen the 0z GFS so are the models starting to show a change again or are we being optimistic?

They're just being optimistic, nothing has changed. 00Z models won't be in for a few hours. I'll be long asleep by then.

[helloitsb]

I have not been active and haven't seen the 0z GFS so are the models starting to show a change again or are we being optimistic?

They're just being optimistic, nothing has changed. 00Z models won't be in for a few hours. I'll be long asleep by then.

Alright thanks

[TexasMetBlake]

I suspect this pattern is locked in. There may be a few variances but nothing of consequence to the ongoing forecast unfortunately.

[Baseballdude2915]

This event should be dry and cold. Bummer.

Looking ahead, 00z GFS shows pretty chilly temps and a coastal low off of LA around the Dec 12-14th timeframe.
See if this sticks around for a few runs..

[srainhoutx]

Now we wait to see which model has a better grasp on the U/A disturbance set for Tuesday. HGX is mentioning light rain around a few hundredths of an inch with a possible coastal low/trough helping the up glide as the disturbance swings by in the NW flow. The Canadian brings that feature right over our area and is stronger, while the GFS and Euro keeps it a bit N and E. We will see. Oh, and that feature is still over the Pacific and will not move onshore until Sunday, so there is still some uncertainty. Enjoy the warm-up today and tomorrow before we turn cold again.

[srainhoutx]

A bit of an update and we'll see what it means, but the latest WRF data suggests that the cold air will push a bit further W than what we have been seeing in guidance. While the brunt of the coldest air will be to our E, but the trends do raise a bit of an eyebrow. Also of note is the 06Z GFS came in a bit more in line with what the Canadian has been suggesting regarding the short wave disturbance for Tuesday. We will see what the 12Z runs offer.

[redneckweather]

My question is, if we do have a little moisture to work with, will it even be cold enough to produce some form of frozen precip? Man, I sure wish we had a pattern to work with like last fall/winter!