December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS completely shears out the Upper Low and looks very dry. It does look somewhat colder though and with the retrograding Upper Storm of the NE, we'll see what that does in regards to any future Upper Air disturbances that may rotate in around the trough that is retrograding to the W as well.

[wxman57]

I'll take a closer look at the GFS long-range (384hrs) when it can do a good job predicting the 72-120 hr time frame.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS completely shears out the Upper Low and looks very dry. It does look somewhat colder though and with the retrograding Upper Storm of the NE, we'll see what that does in regards to any future Upper Air disturbances that may rotate in around the trough that is retrograding to the W as well.

Yep, looks very dry by Tuesday. Nothing for an upper-level disturbance to work with, moisture-wise. Maybe upper 20s for north and west sides of the city on Wednesday. Could even see a light freeze on the south side of Houston on Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) continues to advertise a more robust Upper Air disturbance and much more moisture with cold air in place as well.

[TexasMetBlake]

Euro is running. It's out to 72 hrs. I don't anticipate much change, but then again, I've been baffeled before.

[TexasMetBlake]

Out to 96 hrs. Most of the cold going east...here comes the disturbance...

[wxman57]

Still waiting to see what the Euro looks like. GFS is definitely still dry for next week. Hardly a cloud with the passing disturbance. Canadian will probably end up a bit strong with the disturbance. Even on the Canadian, surface pressures across SE TX are forecast to be above 1024mb. That's quite high for us to still get precip.

I think that there's a good chance that the disturbance passing Tuesday night will produce at least a thick deck of mid-level clouds. These clouds will be in a sub-freezing layer, most likely. Precipitation can often fall from such clouds (snow) as upper-level lows pass. The problem I see for us is that the air below 5000 feet may be so dry that anything falling from above would simply sublimate on the way down (melt). Just the slimmest of chances that some areas might see a few snowflakes Tuesday night should the cloud deck get thick enough and should some precip fall. With such limited moisture and dry air at the surface, anything that might reach the ground wouldn't last more than a few seconds.

As for my forecast, just some mid and high clouds Tuesday night as the disturbance passes. No precip reaching the ground. Now it's possible that the cloud deck will prevent temps from dropping below the upper 30s. GFS forecasts no clouds, and thus a morning low in the upper 20s on the north side:

[TexasMetBlake]

At 120 hours, the disturbance, via euro, is passing WELL north of the area along the Red River. I, unfortunately, agree with wxman.

[wxman57]

Not much moisture with the Euro, either. Sort of like the GFS but at least with a few mid to high clouds. And temps don't look as cold aloft with this run of the Euro.

[srainhoutx]

Also of note as with the 00Z Euro, the -NOA stays put and a ridge is building out West in the Pacific on up to Alaska. We may have to cancel that Winter Cancel of yesterday for wxman57.

[sambucol]

Norman, in his iPhone weather webcast, says that we are in for an extended period of cold this time, with a possibilty of winter precip. We'll see about that. Only a couple more days before we'll know for sure.... One thing is for sure. The models do not know yet either....

Gene Norman? Did he say how long the extended period of cold would be?

[TexasMetBlake]

The source region is dang cold!!!

[TexasBreeze]

...and that's a wrap! No big winter precip event for our area just weather like we've recently had.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well kinda, still a long ways out. Well off to my next class. Christmas, where are you?

[srainhoutx]

Get ready for another tease from the Euro. Off to a meeting for me.

[wxman57]

Also of note as with the 00Z Euro, the -NOA stays put and a ridge is building out West in the Pacific on up to Alaska. We may have to cancel that Winter Cancel of yesterday for wxman57.

BOOOOO! Then I'll choose to ignore the Euro and go with the GFS NAO prediction of warming in another 7-10 days:


We (at the office) do expect that some of our coldest weather of the winter may come over the next week or two. Nothing extreme though, just a few freezes. No mid to lower 20s. Could be a relatively mild Jan/Feb, certainly compared to last winter.

[TexasMetBlake]

I'm going to start calling you 'Debby', wxman....Debby Downer

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to start calling you 'Debby', wxman....Debby Downer

[jasons2k]

We (at the office) do expect that some of our coldest weather of the winter may come over the next week or two. Nothing extreme though, just a few freezes. No mid to lower 20s. Could be a relatively mild Jan/Feb, certainly compared to last winter.

Fine with me. What's left of my tropical garden could sure use the break!

[srainhoutx]

No worries, AZ. The Arctic is opening for business with a nice cross polar flow straight from Siberia...maybe...