July 2026

[Stormlover2020]

Euro ensembles isn’t good

[DoctorMu]

The temperature is too damn high.

Hurry up Bertha...get to Texas ASAP even if you're a naked swirl by that time. Every damn storm near Louisiana bakes us.

[Pas_Bon]

I know you all know more than most, but do not sleep on this storm.

[Stormlover2020]

Google mind big 18z uptick in Texas

[Rip76]

Google mind big 18z uptick in Texas

Can’t see it. Uptick as in?

[Cpv17]

Google mind big 18z uptick in Texas

Can’t see it. Uptick as in?

Ensembles are shifting back S now. Rockport to High Island definitely in play.

[Stormlover2020]

https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab-legacy

[Ptarmigan]

Let me give some sage advice from a mentor of ours who passed just recently. Dr. Neil Frank stated that never let your guard down when studying and predicting tropical systems. Until it disapates, anything can happen, even in a weakend state. Even a depression can cause torrential flooding with trained cells. With PWATs normally over 2 inches, tropical storms can be efficient rain makers.

A lot of people slept on Harvey as well until it became apparent it was going to be bad. About a week prior, they thought the storm was dead except for one weather model suggesting that it would reorganize after it went over the Yucatán. I’ll never sleep on a TS until it’s way past me.

I know you all know more than most, but do not sleep on this storm.

So very true. Never write off anything with anything tropical.

[Scott747]

Latest track was shifted back to what it was yesterday. Across Galveston/Tiki Island and between Alvin/Angleton.

Although unless there are some dramatic changes you might not even know it besides a wind shift and some random gusts.

Rain would be confined to Surfside/Sargent and South.

[Pas_Bon]

Latest track was shifted back to what it was yesterday. Across Galveston/Tiki Island and between Alvin/Angleton.

Although unless there are some dramatic changes you might not even know it besides a wind shift and some random gusts.

Rain would be confined to Surfside/Sargent and South.

It would change the air in Galveston County from an oven to an air fryer.

[Rip76]

[sambucol]

Travis Herzog
7PM Tuesday Weather Update:
In this post I'm going to tell you what to look for in the morning that will give us a big clue as to what Bertha will do here on Thursday, and I also want to spotlight again the extreme heat and small chance of severe storms coming our way late tomorrow.

Monitor Bertha's pressure when you wake up in the morning. If the pressure is 1000 millibars or higher at that 7AM update, then we're looking at the weaker "right side of cone" scenario in my graphic. However, if that pressure is still hanging around 995 millibars or lower, then we're probably looking at the stronger "left side of cone" scenario with some wind impacts headed to Southeast Texas on Thursday.

Of the four high-resolution tropical computer models we monitor, three of them say the pressure is 1000 mb or higher at 7AM, and they all bring a very weak Bertha into Houston Thursday. But there is another that insists the pressure will be 995 mb or lower in the morning, and it keeps Bertha's center mostly over water until making landfall Thursday near Matagorda Bay as a compact hurricane. This remains an unlikely outcome, but one we cannot ignore given the limited time we have left to prepare. Hopefully we wake up, it's weaker, and we don't have to give that scenario another thought. Either way, we expect at least a chance of rain incoming Thursday.

Now let's talk about our local weather for tomorrow. Before we ever get a drop of rain from Bertha, it's going to get extremely hot.

Even for our standards, it's going to be a dangerously hot day in Houston. A record-breaking high of 104° with a heat index as high as 115°. Be wise if you have to be outside, especially if doing physical activity.

Then late in the day, a spoke of moisture rotating around Bertha's circulation is going to produce scattered thunderstorms that could produce severe wind gusts over 60 mph. That's why we've issued an ABC13 Weather Watch for Wednesday, and we have another for Thursday since that's when we'll get the brunt of Bertha's impacts.

We'll get our next forecast track and intensity update from the National Hurricane Center by 10PM. Until then, have a great evening.

Full forecast: abc13.com/forecast
Tropical update: abc13.com/tropicalupdate

[DoctorMu]

All I see in the Ensembles is uncertainty. Initial conditions are dubious in a sheared storm like this. Besides, the models will just change again tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

Travis Herzog
7PM Tuesday Weather Update:
In this post I'm going to tell you what to look for in the morning that will give us a big clue as to what Bertha will do here on Thursday, and I also want to spotlight again the extreme heat and small chance of severe storms coming our way late tomorrow.

Monitor Bertha's pressure when you wake up in the morning. If the pressure is 1000 millibars or higher at that 7AM update, then we're looking at the weaker "right side of cone" scenario in my graphic. However, if that pressure is still hanging around 995 millibars or lower, then we're probably looking at the stronger "left side of cone" scenario with some wind impacts headed to Southeast Texas on Thursday.

Of the four high-resolution tropical computer models we monitor, three of them say the pressure is 1000 mb or higher at 7AM, and they all bring a very weak Bertha into Houston Thursday. But there is another that insists the pressure will be 995 mb or lower in the morning, and it keeps Bertha's center mostly over water until making landfall Thursday near Matagorda Bay as a compact hurricane. This remains an unlikely outcome, but one we cannot ignore given the limited time we have left to prepare. Hopefully we wake up, it's weaker, and we don't have to give that scenario another thought. Either way, we expect at least a chance of rain incoming Thursday.

Now let's talk about our local weather for tomorrow. Before we ever get a drop of rain from Bertha, it's going to get extremely hot.

Even for our standards, it's going to be a dangerously hot day in Houston. A record-breaking high of 104° with a heat index as high as 115°. Be wise if you have to be outside, especially if doing physical activity.

Then late in the day, a spoke of moisture rotating around Bertha's circulation is going to produce scattered thunderstorms that could produce severe wind gusts over 60 mph. That's why we've issued an ABC13 Weather Watch for Wednesday, and we have another for Thursday since that's when we'll get the brunt of Bertha's impacts.

We'll get our next forecast track and intensity update from the National Hurricane Center by 10PM. Until then, have a great evening.

Full forecast: abc13.com/forecast
Tropical update: abc13.com/tropicalupdate

Don't sleep on Bertha or Balrog's whip.

Well done on the forecast and interaction of Bertha tentacles with our weather. Hoping for a rogue cell to hit us in CLL tomorrow late afternoon.

[Scott747]

Both the HAFS hurricane models have joined the legacy HMON and shoe a center relocation below Louisiana and strengthen Bertha into a hurricane.

Color me skeptical but I'll raise an eye when it's the HAFS suite.

[Scott747]

Now with the full run in both the HAFS models show Bertha getting relentlessly blasted by shear.

Just going to be hard to get much here on the upper Texas coast.

[Stratton20]

Of course, and now back to you’re regularly scheduled miserable, insufferable texas like summer weather, in which we can all agree nobody is looking forward to lol

[Brazoriatx979]

well i was just put under a tropical storm watch

[Scott747]

well i was just put under a tropical storm watch

10-20 with gusts to 30 for Angleton/Lake Jackson/Freeport

For now Surfside is only forecasted 20-30 with gusts to 40 and no surge issues.

And this may be generous if it doesn't reform s of Louisiana.

[Brazoriatx979]

Nice little hot tower starting to pop off...maybe one last hurrah