July 2026

[Rip76]

Don’d

[Stormlover2020]

Why we talking about gfs lol it’s been horrible

[Stratton20]

If it’s able tommorow to strengthen into a moderate/ strong tropical storm, the vortex will be able to resist the Northeasterly shear more, i think a 50-60 MPH TS making landfall along the middle texas coast is the most probable solution at this time

[Scott747]

Latest track shifted from n of Angleton to just s of Freeport. Based on the disco they are leaning heavily on the AI models (Google Deepmind) for now. Data should be going into the overnight models. Expect further adjustments as it organizes tomorrow.

[Stratton20]

Tonights model runs are encouraging, however i must emphasize with the uttermost caution that their is still a lot of uncertainty with how this plays out and that we are far from being in the clear . Lets see what TD 2 looks like tomorrow morning

[Stormlover2020]

Hmon says not so
Fast

[Brazoriatx979]

pretty decent shift to the north

[tireman4]

Today

[Rip76]

https://x.com/JimCantore/status/2079191 ... 9812192469

[Andrew]

Growing confidence not much impact is expected across SE Texas in regards to TD Two. Shear, dry air, and land interaction are all going against it. The bigger concern for me is the lack of rain over the next couple of weeks. Outside of isolated storms on Thursday or Friday rain is likely going to be limited across much of Texas through the remainder of July into early August. Likely to hit the century mark on Wednesday.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, we'll be lucky to get a shower. Two good z runs and now TD2 gets swallowed and washes ashore as driftwood. Bertha may have a short life tomorrow. The good news is that the models and NWS have been so wrong this year that there could be hope tomorrow. lol

[Rip76]

Yeah, we'll be lucky to get a shower. Two good z runs and now TD2 gets swallowed and washes ashore as driftwood. Bertha may have a short life tomorrow. The good news is that the models and NWS have been so wrong this year that there could be hope tomorrow. lol

Haha, my thoughts as well.

Sprinklers on stat.

[Stratton20]

Booooo! Id rather take a hit from a TS than deal with another week of 100 degree weather and dry conditions, this absolutely sucks a**

[Rip76]

Booooo! Id rather take a hit from a TS than deal with another week of 100 degree weather and dry conditions, this absolutely sucks a**

Totally.

Oh well, more of your A/C clicking on and off every 8 minutes.

[Stratton20]

The only thing im watching now for is for the center to potentially try and reform more SW as their is pretty healthy convection on the south and SW side, its just a low possibility at this time

[Stratton20]

GFS looks way different through 60 hours, keeps land interaction very minimal and has future Bartha down to 997 MB moving SW off shore of Louisiana

[Brazoriatx979]

Maybe she isnt going down without a fight

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately even with the GFS showing that, that NE is a killer. Barely any rain for se texas . I absolutely hate this heat ridge pattern, and i think we all can unanimously agree that we should just skip straight to October already

[Brazoriatx979]

do we have a center trying reolcate now?

[Stratton20]

Im not sure, the hunters did find on the 4th passage that the center has tightened up some more, deepest convection is still SW of it though, so if we do see this try to reform ( if it does at all ) its going to be more SW underneath that convection, hard to tell if it is getting closer to that convection, but it has taken a WSW to SW jog on the last couple of passes, so maybe that could be a sign?