June 2026

[DoctorMu]

The ridge is farther north than yesterday. The NW flow provide showers for maybe Marshall, Texarkana, possibly Tyler.

The fat lady may not be singing yet, but she's warming up.

https://youtu.be/Ls1dqc-FLTQ?si=4Pa-Jw2IwzR2gQaO

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Stratton20]

Already seeing signs in models of rain returning some time around july 5th, yet again this looks like a case of the heat ridge being transitory, moving from east to west rather quickly. It does not look to set up over texas, just briefly move overhead ( and even then it generally is far north of us to where 850 mb temperatures dont look crazy at all ) before rebuilding over the western us, far away from texas. GFS/ Euro in good agreement on this break down occurring , yet another case of models trying to torch texas for weeks on end, only to shift the ridge away from us in medium range, real shocker lol

[tireman4]

Chris Suchon

[DoctorMu]

^Yep. Only GFS and its proxies show a back door front on the July 4 week. Everyone else sees the ridge. We'll see.

Not the worst I've seen, but not the best. Back to the summer chain gang. Party's over.

59 days until college football season!

[Ptarmigan]

Wow. After all that probably the weakest cyclone I’ve ever experienced. It seemed to crank for a minute and decoupled into nothing.

Not for our friends in Louisiana and Mississppi. 29.06 inches fell in 24 hours in Cottonport, Louisiana.

New Louisiana state rainfall record from Arthur's remnants
https://www.wdsu.com/article/new-louisi ... s/71642391

‘It doesn’t need to have a name to create impacts’: Arthur’s remnants slammed South Mississippi
https://www.wlox.com/2026/06/21/it-does ... ssissippi/

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Stratton20]

Still looks like a brief visit from the heat ridge before it either breaks down fully in early july or shifts well off to our NW. EPS fully supports my thinking, we see the heat ridge rapidly retrograde from east to west, and eventually set up over NW colorado, thats far enough away that sea breeze activity should be a good bet, also the 850 mb temperatures on the euro are far from a blast furnace, i can clearly see hints of a trough trying to dig in the eastern US on the EPS

[DoctorMu]

The height of the ridge is south of us this week, with some NW flow aloft in Texas. It's always possible for storms to slide down the top, but likely only NE Texas sees benefits.

The ridge next week degrades, but it doesn't move NW. Euro, GFS, Canadian all agree that next week a classic Western trough vs. Eastern Ridge battle begins. Hopefully, the western trough slides our way with some liquid relief.


The long-term forecasts have been just awful...so I can't predict either way going into mid-July, except it will be damn hot in SETX.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_25.png

[Rip76]

Sounds wonderful

[DoctorMu]

The models are picking up some seabreeze next week with return flow. Widely scattered stuff.

So, you're saying there's a chance...

[Stratton20]

GFS has a mid level- shortwave crossing the gulf from the east next week which could help to weaken the heat ridge and bring back rain chances

[DoctorMu]

The Easterlies next week are moving under an upper/mid-level ridge that is centered over KY, TN.

Cause and effect, grasshopper. Good pick-up on GoM easterlies, generating a sea breeze when they wash ashore Texas.

I'll take Florida summer weather anytime! Lower temps and a chance of rain.

[Stratton20]

lol GFS has a weak TS hitting houston late next weekend before slowly meandering inland. Hypothetically if something were to form next weekend, it would be a near guarantee it would be a western gulf threat because that heat ridge is going to be flexing its muscle over the eastern us

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[tireman4]

https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/weath ... dium=email

[DoctorMu]

https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/weath ... dium=email

Even though they are not favored, we have to hope for some Ridge Riders underneath the high next week. We'll see.

[Stratton20]

Well to no surprise, noaa is starting to lean back towards above normal precipitation across our area in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, heat ridge stays far enough north that weak upper level disturbances from the east can move in. Plus watching a mid level disturbance ( very low chance ) moving in from the eastern gulf. A couple of ensemble members try to do something funny, but more likely than not, this disturbance should help to enhance sea-breeze activity at the very least