June 2026

[Texashawk]

There is some very nasty flooding starting to occur around the Woodlands. Keep an eye on that line - it doesn't seem to be going anywhere, stuck against the frontal boundary. They could get another 4-5 inches easily today.

[tireman4]

Let me add this. Stalled fronts in the Summer interacting with moist tropical air can cause serious flooding issues no matter where you are. Tropical systems can be temperamental as well. That being said, do not let your guard down until said systems and weather makers have moved on or cleared up.

This is becoming a potentially very dangerous setup. Convergence band setting up on the NE quadrant of the cyclone right over metro Houston…

Be careful up there Jason. As you and I both know, tropical systems are efficient rainmakers. As you stated, that NE quadrant is putting down some serious precipitation. With rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour ( and more), this will strain even the most able drainage systems. The training setup over that portion of the CWA is making it very dangerous. Just because your side of town is not getting rain, does not mean everyone in the CWA dry.

[DoctorMu]

Things are going as expected - very serious tropical event around Hwy 59 corridor. That low is going to ride up the coast and then to Alexandria and MS.

No precipitation here north of Hwy 1*5. The sun is coming out - I prefer clouds in the summer. lol

[cperk]

Haven't received much in the way of heavy rainfall from this event yet here in Southern brazoria county

It won’t be much of an issue for us. Like I’ve been saying, east of here is going to get hit much harder.

I just watched a utube segment with Jim Cantore he does not buy the low amounts of rain the models are predicting for Houston and urges us to keep an eye on this system.

[DoctorMu]

CoC is inland just west of Corpus. This should get interesting. Keep in mind that distribution of rain will be wildly heterogenous with a steep gradient NW. Feast and famine.

The ground in the Houston area is soaked so any rain = runoff and filling up reservoirs and bayous. Keep an eye out. Stay inside and be weather and flood aware.

[DoctorMu]

Buckle up for a lot more as the low rides up near the coast.

[djmike]

Other than The Woodlands area…:Doesn’t look like much rain is coming onshore from the system along the Texas coast. Everything that comes ashore dissipates. Wonder if things might change later.

[Brazoriatx979]

Other than The Woodlands area…:Doesn’t look like much rain is coming onshore from the system along the Texas coast. Everything that comes ashore dissipates. Wonder if things might change later.

Agreed, a lot of these totals that the models spit out don't seem to be materializing. Except for a cpl spots

[Cpv17]

Other than The Woodlands area…:Doesn’t look like much rain is coming onshore from the system along the Texas coast. Everything that comes ashore dissipates. Wonder if things might change later.

Because the atmosphere is worked over.



And it can be recharged as well...more rain moving in....

[Redman]

I don't post much but we have had over 7 inches of rain since 10:30 this morning in Magnolia. We are about 6 miles south of Magnolia on Nichols Sawmill. Creeks are rising quick and it is still raining.

[davidiowx]

Seems like models are leaning toward a more eastern impact as each one passes. Still no certainty any which way though.

[mcheer23]

Not expecting more than an inch in the Sugar Land area.

[Brazoriatx979]

Yup, seems like our impacts are getting less with each run

[djmike]

Even the storms around the low dont even want to come onshore in south texas. Have a feeling all the excessive rainfall from this system will stay offshore. We will see.

[tireman4]

085
FXUS64 KHGX 161850
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Life-threatening flooding remains possible through Wednesday. An
additional 4-10" is possible. Rainfall rates have exceeded 2-5"
per hour in some locations.

- Trough/Low may drift into the northwest Gulf today. 60% chance
of tropical development. Moderate to strong winds could develop
over the coastal waters. Cannot rule out gusts possibly to Gale.
Tropical funnels and waterspouts will also be possible along
the coastline.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides
may lead to minor coastal flooding, especially on
Wednesday/Thursday.

[tireman4]

Slowly it is starting to ease off a bit near Jason...

[Dls2010r]

Why is everybody so wanting a bad event I’m in Santa Fe. Today alone I’ve had 2 inches and I’m not complaining. I’m still trying to figureout why the school canceled all sports activities for tomorrow. Enjoy the rain folks. Next month we’ll all be complaining!!!!

[djmike]

Nobody is asking for a bad event or flooding. We are simply comparing models and forecasts to the what is actually transpiring. We are weather enthusiasts! When weather gets bad or a TS on our doorstep, we get excited. No one is wishing bad weather or harm to affect anyone.

[Cpv17]

The atmosphere is worked over. Besides a few light showers, the rain should be over with for the rest of the day. Will have to wait till overnight to see if the storm can have a good DMAX. It’s possible that some of us overnight, and into tomorrow could still get some decent rain out of this if the atmosphere can recharge. Since we’ll be west of the COC, brunt of the rain should go into LA/MS.

[DoctorMu]

There's just not enough wrap around in the low as it now drifts offshore...in a worked over atmosphere.

Still, it could recharge tonight with all the tropical moisture and energy. Concerns about nighttime rains around Houston tonight are definitely justified.