December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[Mr. T]

Non insulting reply.

I looped AccuWeather PPV 2 meter temps. No way close to a winter event.

You can claim its all pattern recognition, and deep troughs are a good thing, but if a freely available model like the GFS or Canadian shows the 540 dm thickness line along the Red River, and the 2 meter surface temp in the mid 40s, one would not say it is forecasting a big winter event.

I don't know about you, but I don't ignore the thicknesses and 850 mb freezing line, or the 2 m temp (found on the NCEP site). If they are fairly close, I am more willing to hope for some dynamic or evaporational cooling or the model not resolving the cold air. But the Euro forecast temps weren't even ballpark. It will have to be about 9ºF wrong for a serious chance of winter precip.

Cold rains with temps in the 30s and 40s are a lot more common in Houston than snow.


I'll overlook your insulting manner, and strike it up to wanting winter precip a little too much. We all want winter precip, after all.

You're completely missing my point, but lets just end it here... Steve's going to kill us both

[TexasMetBlake]

Ed, I would encourage you to read the AFD's out of Dallas and Houston.

[helloitsb]

Ed, I would encourage you to read the AFD's out of Dallas and Houston.

Where can one read these?

[Mr. T]

Ed, I would encourage you to read the AFD's out of Dallas and Houston.

Where can one read these?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=forecasts

[srainhoutx]

Nah, no death here. Just a friendly reminder, that's all. After all, how often have we had these type 'chances' and we want everyone to feel free to contribute and ask questions.

[srainhoutx]

Ed, you know better than to post that copyrighted material.

[Mr. T]

Ed, you know better than to post that copyrighted material.

bangs head on desk.gif

while still completely missing my point, but like I said, I'm ready to drop this now

[Mr. T]

American Wx (formerly Eastern) will be having a radio show tonight discussing the upcoming pattern... The talk will be focused on the NE, but these shows are always fun to listen to regardless, especially with DT on the show.
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx ... first-show

[Mr. T]

Bang your head harder, please.gif


I didn't say a snow miracle was impossible, just that the current Euro is not showing one in Houston, and I am fully aware things change over a weeks time.

Seeing how Andrew just got to the thread, I'm sure he'll be banging his head harder than anyone after seeing this explosion

[ticka1]

I remember last year's snow miracle - it snowed enough in about 90 mins to cover the ground, deck and vehicles - and by the time I got pictures and took the dog out - it was beginning to rain and it all melted. But it did happen.

Going to read the links to the AFD's now....

[Mr. T]

I remember last year's snow miracle - it snowed enough in about 90 mins to cover the ground, deck and vehicles - and by the time I got pictures and took the dog out - it was beginning to rain and it all melted. But it did happen.

Going to read the links to the AFD's now....

I was definitely very lucky with that one... It snowed about an inch here and patches of snow actually lasted through morning thanks to temperatures dropping into the mid 20 through morning.

The 2008 event was colder for the onset, while the 2009 event was slightly warmer but much colder afterwards.

[Andrew]

Bang your head harder, please.gif


I didn't say a snow miracle was impossible, just that the current Euro is not showing one in Houston, and I am fully aware things change over a weeks time.

Seeing how Andrew just got to the thread, I'm sure he'll be banging his head harder than anyone after seeing this explosion

I see some of us got into a little argument... I am usually on my phone browsing the forum as a guest but I saw that things got a little tense on here. Luckily Steve seemed to have taken care of the problem and we can all get back to weather now. Just remember guys this is just weather, there is no need to fight.

As for the weather aspect things do look a lot more interesting as other models such as the GFS and CMC seem to still be having trouble with this setup. Luckily we have the Euro, who has been pretty consistent in showing some sort of "frozen precip" in Texas. Will it get all the way down here? We probably won't know that until the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

And all I saw both years were...flurries...and virga...

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[Andrew]

And all I saw both years were...flurries...and virga...

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This was my snow event last year:

[helloitsb]

This was my snow event last year:

I might have to go find some of my pics on my old computer from last year but you sure did get a lot more and a lot more stuck for you, mine was starting to accumulate up on some objects on my back patio but by that time it was fixing to stop and then it got warmer and ended up melting it, I want a good 24-36 hours of snow on the ground accumulated about 3-6 inches and I would be happy

[Mr. T]

This was my snow event last year:

I might have to go find some of my pics on my old computer from last year but you sure did get a lot more and a lot more stuck for you, mine was starting to accumulate up on some objects on my back patio but by that time it was fixing to stop and then it got warmer and ended up melting it, I want a good 24-36 hours of snow on the ground accumulated about 3-6 inches and I would be happy

That was actually the forecast beforehand, but the mid levels were just a bit too dry and the surface air just slightly warmer than what was forecasted... If everything had been adjusted a few degrees, it would have been the perfect setup

I was still happy with my inch, tho

[helloitsb]

This was my snow event last year:

I might have to go find some of my pics on my old computer from last year but you sure did get a lot more and a lot more stuck for you, mine was starting to accumulate up on some objects on my back patio but by that time it was fixing to stop and then it got warmer and ended up melting it, I want a good 24-36 hours of snow on the ground accumulated about 3-6 inches and I would be happy

That was actually the forecast beforehand, but the mid levels were just a bit too dry and the surface air just slightly warmer than what was forecasted... If everything had been adjusted a few degrees, it would have been the perfect setup

I was still happy with my inch, tho

Oh yeah in no way was I disappointed I always enjoy a snow event here in SE TX

[Andrew]

This was my snow event last year:

I might have to go find some of my pics on my old computer from last year but you sure did get a lot more and a lot more stuck for you, mine was starting to accumulate up on some objects on my back patio but by that time it was fixing to stop and then it got warmer and ended up melting it, I want a good 24-36 hours of snow on the ground accumulated about 3-6 inches and I would be happy

That was actually the forecast beforehand, but the mid levels were just a bit too dry and the surface air just slightly warmer than what was forecasted... If everything had been adjusted a few degrees, it would have been the perfect setup

I was still happy with my inch, tho

Yea I remember watching the radar the whole day (When I wasn't outside) and seeing the snow just training over my house. On the drive home that day, I remember it went from no snow on the ground to a bunch in a matter of a mile. So it was really hit and miss and I got really really lucky.

[srainhoutx]

Meh. January 73 was a snow event in the Houston area, for those of us old enough to remember. Dang, I'm telling on myself.

[Andrew]

Meh. January 73 was a snow event in the Houston area, for those of us old enough to remember. Dang, I'm telling on myself.

Yes but some of us aren't lucky enough to have had experienced that event.