June 2026

[DoctorMu]

Looks like its all heading out and about to be over

Oh no no. This is just the first and second inning of a nine inning ballgame. There is so much more left.

https://youtu.be/TmENMZFUU_0?si=FJrkZk7HZcFq_s1J

[Rip76]

Up to 50% in the next 7 days.

[DoctorMu]

Up to 50% in the next 7 days.

Long term event and another potential FROPA next weekend.

[Brazoriatx979]

Now up to 50% amazing how this went from nothing to the talk about TS watches and earnings going up tomorrow. If were to develop where would it go? La or east tx towards Beaumont?

[tireman4]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[tireman4]

Now up to 50% amazing how this went from nothing to the talk about TS watches and earnings going up tomorrow. If were to develop where would it go? La or east tx towards Beaumont?

I am just a student met, but I would think it would ride along the decaying/stalled front.

[Brazoriatx979]

We now have Invest 90l

[Stormlover2020]

Euro ensembles interested

[Rip76]

Lindner

Potential tropical development chances are increased to 50% with tropical low inland over MX.

Hybrid circulation over inland Mexico west of the Rio Grande is showing some signs of organization today even though the feature is inland as there are likely some jet dynamics at play in the current position. While some development is possible, this does not change the expected impacts to the area…heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain the primary concerns. Although the track of any surface low feature may increase or reduce rainfall impacts across the area.

Tides:
With increasing winds near the coast into the 30-40mph range, tides will respond to the increasing winds and seas and will run 1-2 feet above normal which brings total water levels (3-4 ft above MLLW or the barnacle level). Some minor coastal flooding is possible in the normally low lying areas in Seabrook, Shoreacres, and the lower portion of the San Jacinto River.

[tireman4]

HGX

A rather dangerous set up is taking shape over the area, as a
frontal boundary drifts southward and stalls. South of the
boundary, a steady stream of moisture has sent PW values above the
climatological max for this time of year. Combined with a weak low
level jet, enough forcing is in place for areas of showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon. Unfortunately,
the heavier rain is falling across areas generally along and north
of the I-10 corridor, and this trend should continue for the next
few hours. The initial jet will shift eastward through the day,
and rainfall rates may lessen. That said, we`ve seen some report
of 3"+ of rain earlier so far and any additional rainfall may
cause more concerns heading into the afternoon.

The pattern remains active headed into Tuesday, as cyclogenesis
occurs over southern TX/northern Mexico. Guidance remains in
somewhat fair agreement on timing and placement, with some slight
differences among global models. Given the proximity to the Gulf,
and the potential for the low to move over water and develop
tropical characteristics, NHC maintains a 40-50% chance for
tropical development. Regardless if it moves and/or stays over
water long enough, a tropical airmass will remain in place with
the above normal PWs increasing the threat for very heavy
rainfall. As the low tracks to the northeast late Tuesday night,
the chance for heavy rainfall will increase once again, with an
additional 4 to 6 inches of rain likely through Thursday. Of
course, the heavier rain will occur on the eastern/right side of
the low and uncertainty remains high on where that will eventually
move. That said, confidence is high enough that the Flood Watch
has been extended through Wednesday, with the increasing potential
for life-threatening flooding. Further refinements to the
storm total rainfall forecast is expected and some areas may
exceed the forecast values if training of storms occurs.

In addition to the flash flood threat, winds will also increase as
the low moves along the coast. Again, where the highest winds
occur will depend on the eventual track of the low. Regardless of
tropical development, winds will increase Tuesday into Wednesday,
with widespread gust up to 30 mph and some gales over the waters.
Additionally, the prolonged southerly flow will create some
coastal flooding concerns, with rises occuring Wednesday into
Thursday. It can`t be emphasized enough that this scenario is
likely, regardless on if tropical development occurs.

The low will move well northeast of the area by Friday, with
ridging building back into the region. This will bring a return to
hot and humid conditions and heat indices will climb into the
triple digits over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas of moderate to heavy SHRA/TSRA will continue to impact the
Houston Metro this afternoon. Heavy rainfall, low vis/cigs, and
frequent lightning are the primary concerns with TSRA. We cannot
rule out brief 25-30 knot gusts in the heaviest cells, especially
closer to the coast. SHRA/TSRA activity should decrease in
coverage and severity late afternoon into the evening. SHRA may
linger this evening near the coast. Overnight and into the
morning, SHRA/TSRA activity is expected to lift back northward
from the Gulf and into SE Texas. Flight conditions are generally
expected to remain IFR-MVFR. But periods of VFR are possible,
especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6
feet are expected today, with onshore flow increasing on Tuesday
and Wednesday. A passing disturbance along the Texas coast may
bring moderate to strong onshore winds and higher seas late
Tuesday night through early Friday morning, though there remains
some uncertainties on the timing of the higher winds and seas.
Gusts to gale cannot be ruled out. A moderate to high risk of rip
currents is anticipated almost daily through the upcoming week
with slightly elevated high tides.

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A trough of low pressure currently over northeastern Mexico is
expected to drift north-northeastward over the next few days. Late
Tuesday night into mid week, this feature may move into the
northwestern Gulf near the Texas Coastal Bend. Currently this low is
not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone, with formation
chances from NHC at 50% within the next seven days. Though
regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall is likely and
dangerous marine conditions are possible. Rainfall rates are
expected to be around 2-4"/hr, with 5"/hr possible near the coast.
Moderate to strong winds could develop across the waters and bays
late Tuesday night through Thursday. Gusts to gale are possible.
Seas may reach 7 to 10 ft, possibly up to 14 ft.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 73 82 74 / 90 70 60 10
Houston (IAH) 84 75 81 75 / 80 80 90 50
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 85 81 / 40 70 90 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JTC

[Brazoriatx979]

Suns out here...

[tireman4]

Suns out here...

And the sun being out will just add more fuel to the fire. The convective temperatures are really low right now ( low to mid 80s). The moisture content is extremely high ( 2.1-2.6 PWATs) and the atmosphere in some spots has been worked over, the sun being out will help recharge it. This will be a long set of days coming up.

[tireman4]

One follow up as we head into the evening hours. I worry about night time rains ( especially training storms with high tropical moisture content). All it takes is a nice complex to move over an area for an hour to an hour and half stretch for massive flooding to take place. With some areas in the CWA struggling with storm drainage systems ( new construction can hinder adequate drainage, for example), these storms can drop 2-3 inches ( sometimes up to 5) in an hour. This can and will exacerbate an even problematic situation. Even with drainage systems that are up to date, 5 inches in one hour is almost too much to ask for it not to back up ( with saturation points that have been met even before tonight and onward). What I am trying to say is make sure you are fully aware of what is going on and have plans in case the worst case scenario pans out.

From the City of Houston

ALERTHOUSTON

Mensaje en Español abajo.

Potentially dangerous excessive rainfall and flash flooding are expected across the region today and through the week.

Heavy rainfall may lead to rapidly changing roadway conditions, street flooding, and hazardous travel during this afternoon's commute and throughout the week.

Before heading home, check current roadway conditions and flooded roads using the Houston TranStar Traffic Map. If you encounter a flooded roadway, Turn Around, Don't Drown. Just a few inches of moving water can sweep a vehicle away.

Consider delaying travel if conditions worsen, allow extra travel time, and monitor local forecasts and emergency alerts.

Follow @HoustonOEM on all platforms to stay informed.

[DoctorMu]

Now up to 50% amazing how this went from nothing to the talk about TS watches and earnings going up tomorrow. If were to develop where would it go? La or east tx towards Beaumont?

I am just a student met, but I would think it would ride along the decaying/stalled front.

That’s been the thought. Tropical moisture Flow + FROPA + Low combo as summer is nigh is unusual, but could be a real concern, especially with soil saturating and slow drainage.

[DoctorMu]

Small raindrops as a classic tropical shower is moving through CLL.

That low is starting to crank in NE Mexico - the CoC on radar fwiw looks to be fairly near Monterrey.

FROPA appears to be stalled just north of Hwy 59.

[DoctorMu]

It feels like the low will ride right up the coast from Corpus to Louisiana.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

[Cpv17]

It feels like the low will ride right up the coast from Corpus to Louisiana.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

If it does then the flood threat will be greatest around Beaumont and points east of there.