June 2026

[Stratton20]

I think some places are easily going to double or triple those totals easily, this is tropical moisture straight from the pacific and caribbean, rainfall rates could easily ve 3-4-5 inches per hour, combine that with a stalled out front, and you got a recipe for a significant flooding event somewhere

[biggerbyte]

Let me just remind everyone to stay tuned..A stalled system is still on the table as of today.

[DoctorMu]

If you look at the Ensembles, nothing has changed since my post yesterday. A moderate amount of rainfall from Sunday - Tuesday is the sensible forecast (1-2 inches, maybe 3). Still - keep an eye out.

Cats on the Coast.



https://youtu.be/xRVbZ-5oBRo?si=INPPUwLsE2IjNTWs

[Stormlover2020]

Always double the amount with tropical moisture

[DoctorMu]

Always double the amount with tropical moisture

That could happen, especially near the coast. South of I-10 may finally get their due.

[Stratton20]

Euro remains exceptionally bullish on rainfall totals for se texas, widespread 4-8 inches, with a max bullseye of 20 inches in eastern texas lol

[Pas_Bon]

Euro remains exceptionally bullish on rainfall totals for se texas, widespread 4-8 inches, with a max bullseye of 20 inches in eastern texas lol

Jesus Pete…..

[djmike]

Can you post the euro graphic?

[Cpv17]

Latest WPC 7 day QPF forecast pretty significantly increased totals across the area. It’s now showing 3-7”.

[jasons2k]

Steep gradient…

[tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner on Facebook

6-13-26 825am

Broad area of low pressure in the southern Gulf will move inland over N MX and S TX Sunday with a surge of tropical moisture into coastal TX.

Elevated rain chances on Sunday with more widespread potential Mon-Tues. Heavy rainfall will be possible during this period.

Coastal flood advisory in effect today and Sunday for tides running 1-2ft above normal.’

[Stratton20]

Euro my goodness! Steering currents completely collapse over se texas, euro has a weak low forming off Brownsville on wednesday , then slowly moves north to NW towards se texas, by friday the low is just now reaching the metro area, saturday its still in our northern counties, by sunday the low is still in eastern texas bringing another heavy rain band across the metro, the result is some staggering totals, and the euro has been very consistent on this idea on a run to run basis for a while now

[biggerbyte]

Indeed. I hope folks are at least preparing for a possible lingering menace.

[Kludge]

Hey whatya reckon this guy is sampling and/or looking for this afternoon?


Edit: Oh heck turns out that's Kermit!! Came right over my house at 2Kft. Probably just a training mission then. Wish I could've gotten a souvenir dropsonde

Kermit's at it again today. Same pattern. I gather they are practicing doing hard turns and loop-de-loops. It's curious that they do it over land at only 2k feet.

[SLM87TX]

Those bullseyes have quite often been a warning sign for flooding across Texas, meaning the environment is primed for heavy rainfall. The dynamics will determine if it will happen..

[Stratton20]

I have never seen the Euro this persistent about showing some eye opening excessive rainfall totals, 18z Euro is in and goes out just 6 days (144 hours ) And it has two bullseyes of 20-25 inches, one just offshore of galveston, and another bullseye in parts of our northern viewing area. Widespread 4-7 inches for se texas as a whole

[DoctorMu]

Euro, Canadian on board with heavy QPF targeting SETX.

UKMet - I don't even know...

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu jee whiz that UKMET is a doozy

[Pas_Bon]

My WUnderground app forecast rain totals for Mon and Tues just plummeted. Oof.

[Stratton20]

Placement of the heaviest rains will continue to shift around, but the 00z Euro again with some blockbuster bullseyes of 20+ inches in parts of eastern se texas counties, just incredible to see this model be so persistent with forecasting insane totals like that