December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[TexasMetBlake]

HGX:

AFTER THE BLUSTERY TUESDAY THE 1029MB HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THE HIGH TO MOVE EAST AND
RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY THURSDAY STRENGTHENING FRIDAY SO A
PLEASANT WARM UP WILL OCCUR. THEN THINGS GET DICEY. GFS HAS BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND A LOT LATELY WITH ITS SOLUTIONS IN THE WESTERN
U.S. AND ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A STRONGER
SOLUTION BUT NOT BITING OFF ON IT ENTIRELY YET. SO FOR NOW EXPECT
A COLD FRONT TO DROP IN SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SLIDING EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING AND WARM FRONT SETTING UP BY MONDAY. VERY COLD AIR
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. GETTING MORE CONFIDENT THAT A
SNOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS BY
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CLOUDY...COLD AND WET END TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SETX.

[Mr. T]

That's a lot of confidence to be had considering models are flipping all over the place run to run thanks to poor handling of the Pacific... I like the boldness, though. You normally don't see that from them that far out

Not sure if it means anything, but the 12z CMC supports the Euro with a large scale trough over the area, but it is still very different with the details of said feature

[wxman57]

Judging by the latest ZFP from HGX, it looks like they are completely disregarding the GFS and going with the Euro. They have highs in the 50s early next week instead of the 70s as the 12z GFS shows.

I just ran a 2m temp meteogram for IAH and the GFS is forecasting a high of about 60 Monday and the upper 40s on Tuesday for the high. Low in the mid 30s Tuesday. No precip, though, ahead of or behind the front. I think the GFS is probably wrong with the pattern next week, but I'm not ready to buy the latest Euro's solution either.

I only see the Canadian out to 144 hrs, but it does show the upper low centered in northern Washington state vs. the Euro with a big cutoff over southern California at 144hrs.

[TexasMetBlake]

The discussion out of HGX is about as ominous as it can get at this time frame. Never would hgx call for snow in Houston 8 days out. I suspect as the models continue to come into alignment and get stronger with the low and cold, we may see talk of snow in the Houston area. This is still a considerable amount of time away for snow forecasting in Houston.

[Mr. T]

Judging by the latest ZFP from HGX, it looks like they are completely disregarding the GFS and going with the Euro. They have highs in the 50s early next week instead of the 70s as the 12z GFS shows.

I just ran a 2m temp meteogram for IAH and the GFS is forecasting a high of about 60 Monday and the upper 40s on Tuesday for the high. Low in the mid 30s Tuesday. No precip, though, ahead of or behind the front. I think the GFS is probably wrong with the pattern next week, but I'm not ready to buy the latest Euro's solution either.

Yeah, I made a mistype there... I should have said highs in the 50s late in the weekend whereas the GFS has it in the 70s.

[Mr. T]

I only see the Canadian out to 144 hrs, but it does show the upper low centered in northern Washington state vs. the Euro with a big cutoff over southern California at 144hrs.

CMC goes out to 180 here:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

It is definitely different than the Euro, but it does sort of support the Euro's idea of a large scale trough further west than the GFS

[Mr. T]

I hope the Euro's bias of holding back energy in the SW is not in play here... It drags an intense cut-off low over the SW, and then slowly digs it fairly far to the south as it scoots eastward towards our area and combines with the deep upper trough diving down out of the Great Lakes. Looks kind of odd to me. You can see how it is dragging the energy big time from 168 foward...

[TexasMetBlake]

Mr. T...

check PM

[TexasMetBlake]

18z gfs rolling out. Very strange looking. So far (up to hour 156) the low in the e. pac is further south this run but leaves it there. The ridge gets pumped up over the west coast but there's this little shortwave over Denver that kinda comes outta nowhere. This run doesn't match the other runs, but is definitely showing a deepening trough over Texas. Let's wait and see what happens next...

[srainhoutx]

The euro under estimated the temps this past Saturday by 5-8 degrees.

[TexasMetBlake]

Ed, the Euro is very much indicating a winter storm of sorts for Texas...even Houston. What leads you to think it's not? 2-meter temps at day 8 really don't mean squat. With a 1044 hPa high moving in with a deep trough and upper-level support, there is no reason to think otherwise. Now the GFS is all over the place and can't be trusted. But even at 6z this morning, there was a time when it depicted winter weather near the Houston area for the Day 8 time frame.

[Mr. T]

Man, the 18z GFS just completely loses the system in the Pacific as it is absored into the large Gulf of Alaska low. You're left with a dry trough over the East

I do not think the GFS or Euro could be any different at this point...

[Mr. T]

BTW, I don't care how deep a trough the model is showing, if its predicting surface temps between 40 and 50ºF then it isn't predicting winter precip around here no matter how bad you want it to.

Maybe the model is underestimating the amount of cold air, and we'll all get lucky with a snow miracle. But you're the most annoying kind of wishcaster, insulting someone who points out the modelling isn't showing your fantasy forecast.

lol

I'm pointing out the model is showing a potential pattern that would support, in your words, "winter fun" for our area. I don't care what the model is saying what surface temps will be 9 days from now. All I care about is pattern recognition, what is going with the upper air features down the road and why the model is showing what it is...

You're a joke

[don]

BTW, I don't care how deep a trough the model is showing, if its predicting surface temps between 40 and 50ºF then it isn't predicting winter precip around here no matter how bad you want it to.

Maybe the model is underestimating the amount of cold air, and we'll all get lucky with a snow miracle. But you're the most annoying kind of wishcaster, insulting someone who points out the modelling isn't showing your fantasy forecast.

Im not sure what you're looking at but when i looked up the max surface temps over southeast Texas from hours 198-204 it shows temps in the upper to mid 30s over southeast Texas with plenty of precip around...

[Mr. T]

The euro under estimated the temps this past Saturday by 5-8 degrees.

Just don't appreciate some pinhead saying I suck because I note the Euro 2 meter forecast temps would in no way support winter precip. Little cowards feeling all brave on the internet.

Why the hell are surface temperature forecasts 9 days away relevant? I care 1000x more about what the pattern is doing rather than what a model is predicting the surface temperature will be in Aspermont, TX at 7:30 am next wednesday

I didn't say "you suck". I said your model analysis does, but thanks to resorting to personal attacks

[srainhoutx]

Alright, that's enough. Goodness, we have something interesting to follow and we're getting hung up on 'finer details' 7 days out!

[TexasMetBlake]

Great, now Steve's mad. I haven't seen so much emotion since Jimmy Swaggert said "Lord, I have sinned." LOL

[Mr. T]

Edit-


To be replaced with a reply that doesn't insult he that insults freely...

I didn't even call you any names until you called me a "pinhead", pal. woe is me.gif

Anyway, the differences from run to run in the Pacific are staggering on the GFS



Note the Atlantic side is still fairly similar, but the Pacific side is a garbage forecast

[srainhoutx]

Have fun folks and good natured banter is part of that fun. Just remember the internet doesn't always portray sarcasm and such too well.

[Mr. T]

Have fun folks and good natured banter is part of that fun. Just remember the internet doesn't always portray sarcasm and such too well.

I was being half tongue in cheek with the guy, but I guess I struck a nerve

Which sucks because I think the guy's hilarious... Judging by his prior posts on Eastern, he has one of the most unique posting styles I've ever seen